The Dolphins Playoff Picture Through the Week 16 Saturday Games
The Miami Dolphins still control their destiny when it comes to the AFC playoffs, both in terms of winning the division title or landing the top seed in the conference, but they almost got some assistance toward their first goal Saturday night.
In their first game under their new interim head coach, the L.A. Chargers put a scare into the Buffalo Bills as 12-point underdogs until the Bills left with a last-second 24-22 victory.
But it remains all in the Dolphins' hands, starting Sunday with their interconference battle against the Dallas Cowboys at Hard Rock Stadium when they can clinch a playoff spot, which would give them their first back-to-back postseason appearances since they went five straight times from 1997-2001.
THE AFC EAST OUTLOOK
The Buffalo victory kept the Dolphins' magic number to clinch the AFC East title at two, meaning any combination of Miami wins or Buffalo losses equaling that number.
But the Bills and Dolphins face each other in the second half of their annual home-and-home in Week 18 at Hard Rock Stadium and the Bills won the first matchup. That means they would clinch the tiebreaker with a victory that day if the teams finished with the same record by virtue of their season sweep.
Essentially, there are three games left before that rematch for the Dolphins to have two positive results, either a Miami win against Dallas and a Miami win at Baltimore or a Buffalo loss at home against New England next week.
Of course, all the Dolphins would need is a win over the Bills in Week 18 because that would give them at worst an 11-6 record and Buffalo would have its seventh loss of the season.
THE OVERALL AFC PICTURE
Just like the Dolphins don't need any outside help to win the AFC East title if they take care of business, they don't need any outside help to land the No. 1 seed in the AFC and the accompanying first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the conference playoffs.
By winning out, the Dolphins would finish 13-4 and the only team that could match that record would be Baltimore, but then Miami would get the tiebreaker by virtue of their head-to-head victory Dec. 31 (remember, this is the scenario where the Dolphins win out).
If the Dolphins finish 12-5 while defeating Baltimore, they'll win the AFC East title but landing the top seed then would require the Kansas City Chiefs losing one of their final three games — at home against Las Vegas, at home against Cincinnati, and at the L.A. Chargers.
One thing for sure: The Dolphins cannot land the No. 1 seed in the AFC if they lose at Baltimore — under that scenario, the best Miami could finish is 12-5 and Baltimore already would have 12 wins and get the tiebreaker in a two-way tie by virtue of their head-to-head, and if there were a three-way tie at 12-5 with Miami, Baltimore and Kansas City, then the Chiefs would get the top seed by virtue of having the best conference (it would be 10-2) because the head-to-head factor no longer would apply because the Chiefs didn't face the Ravens this season.
If the Dolphins win the AFC East but don't land the No. 1 seed, the most likely landing spot would be the second or third seed depending on whether they can finish with a better record than the Chiefs, who hold the tiebreaker over them.
If the Dolphins should end up not winning the AFC East and finish 11-6, they likely would be in a battle with the Cleveland Browns for the No. 5 seed. The Browns currently are a game behind the Dolphins at 9-5 and finish with games at Houston, vs. the New York Jets, and at Cincinnati.
The Dolphins and Browns currently both have three conference losses, so if the Dolphins were the lose against Dallas but win their final two games, they would get a tiebreaker with Cleveland on conference record.
If the Dolphins were defeat Dallas but lose their final next games and become a wild-card team at 11-6, they would win a tiebreaker with the Browns at 11-6 if the Browns' final loss comes against the Jets next Thursday night, otherwise Cleveland would get it by virtue of a higher strength of victory figure.
In a worst-case scenario where the Dolphins lose their final three games, they still likely would make the playoffs with a 10-7 record, but that would require some outside help like one Pittsburgh loss and one more losses from two of three AFC South contenders (Houston, Indianapolis, Jacksonville).
The Dolphins would be vulnerable in most of the tiebreaking scenarios because after head-to-head results (they have to be sweeps when multiple teams are involved) and conference record, strength of victory is the next factor and Miami's .319 at the moment is by far the worst of any AFC team with a winning record (Indianapolis is second-worst at .434).
REMAINING SCHEDULES OF AFC PLAYOFF CONTENDERS (teams at .500 or better)
1. BALTIMORE RAVENS (11-3) — at San Francisco, vs. Miami, vs. Pittsburgh
2. MIAMI DOLPHINS (10-4) — vs. Dallas, at Baltimore, vs. Buffalo
3. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (9-5) — vs. Las Vegas, vs. Cincinnati, at L.A. Chargers
4. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (8-6) — at Tampa Bay, vs. Carolina, at Tennessee
5. CLEVELAND BROWNS (9-5) — at Houston, vs. N.Y. Jets, at Cincinnati
6. BUFFALO BILLS (9-6) — vs. New England, at Miami
7. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (8-6) — at Atlanta, vs. Las Vegas, vs. Houston
8. HOUSTON TEXANS (8-6) — vs. Cleveland, vs. Tennessee, at Indianapolis
9. PITTSBURGH STEELERS (8-7) — at Seattle, at Baltimore
10. CINCINNATI BENGALS (8-7) — at Kansas City, vs. Cleveland
11. DENVER BRONCOS (7-7) — vs. New England, vs. L.A. Chargers, at Las Vegas
PLAYOFF TIEBREAKER PROCEDURES
To break a tie within a division
1. Head-to-head
2. Best record in division games
3. Best record in common games
4. Best record in conference games
5. Strength of victory in all games
6. Strength of schedule in all games
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games
9. Best net points in common games
10. Best net points in all games
11. Best net touchdowns in all games
12. Coin toss
To break a tie for wild-card spots
Two teams
1. Head-to-head, if applicable
2. Best record in conference games
3. Best record in common games (minimum of four)
4. Strength of victory in all games
5. Strength of schedule in all games
6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games
7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games
8. Best net points in conference games
9. Best net points in all games
10. Best net touchdowns in all games
11. Coin toss
Three or more teams
1. Apply division tiebreaker to eliminate all but highest-ranked team in each division prior to proceeding to Step 2.
2. Head-to-head (apply only if one team has defeated all the others or one team has lost to all the others)
3. Best record in conference games
4. Best record in common games (minimum of four)
5. Strength of victory in all games
6. Strength of schedule in all games
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games
9. Best net points in conference games
10. Best net points in all games
11. Best net touchdowns in all games
12. Coin toss
Note: When the first Wild Card team has been identified, the procedure if repeated to name the second and third teams.
