The Neverending QB Quandary for the Dolphins (and Most AFC Teams)

The Miami Dolphins have a good, sometimes very good, quarterback in a conference that features the cream of the crop

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) and Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) shake hands after an NFL International Series game at Deutsche Bank Park in 2023. / Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The AFC Championship Game matchup is set, and for the 32nd consecutive year it will not involve the Miami Dolphins.

But for the fifth consecutive season, it will feature two of the four quarterbacks generally acknowledged as the best in the NFL, Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, after Joe Burrow got two shots in 2021 and 2022, and Lamar Jackson took part in 2023.

The NFC Championship Game, meanwhile, will feature a good-but-maybe-not-great quarterback (Jalen Hurts) against a sensational rookie but a rookie nonetheless (Jayden Daniels).

The point here is if we're comparing conference and how hard it is to get to the Super Bowl based on the quarterbacks teams have to defeat, there is no comparison.

And that's the problem for the Dolphins and every other team in the AFC not named the Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, Baltimore Ravens or Cincinnati Bengals.

WHERE THE DOLPHINS STAND

Ironically, the last quarterback to start an AFC Championship Game other than the Big Four was none other than Ryan Tannehill, who did so for the Tennessee Titans in the 2019 season.

Tannehill never was considered an elite quarterback, more along the lines of what Hurts is these days, a solid player but the beneficiary of a great offensive line, great running back and sturdy defense around him.

The Dolphins had Tannehill for seven seasons and never came close to a conference championship game because they simply didn't have enough talent around him and he certainly wasn't good enough to carry a team to championship contention.

And this brings us to today's Dolphins, and where they stand with Tua Tagovailoa.

Wherever you want to place Tagovailoa among NFL or AFC quarterbacks is fine and certainly open for debate, but even his most ardent supporters would (at least should) he's a clear notch below the Big Four (again, Mahomes, Allen, Jackson, Burrow).

This basically means the margin for error for a team like the Dolphins always will be smaller than teams like the Chiefs, Ravens, Bills or Bengals, who can count on their quarterback bailing them out on a more regular basis than other teams.

The biggest concern for Tagovailoa at this point isn't even about how far the Dolphins can go with him as their quarterback because that's been supplanted by how much they can count on him being available for every game based on what happened in the 2024 season.

The 2022 and 2023 seasons proved the Dolphins can be a regular playoff team with Tagovailoa at quarterback, but there has been no evidence they can make a deep playoff run based on how they've almost always come up short against top competition — such as the Thanksgiving night game at Green Bay or even the game at Houston.

Based on his contract extension, and the $56 million guarantee for 2026 that kicks in on the third day of the 2025 league year, Tua almost assuredly will be the Dolphins starting quarterback for the next two years at least.

The oldest quarterback among the Big Four is Mahomes, and he won't turn 30 until next September, which means the Dolphins and the AFC will have to deal with those QBs for a while longer.

Beyond the Dolphins' own issues, this is not particularly encouraging for the rest of the AFC.