Tua a Popular Draft QB Comp, But Which One is Most Valid?

Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa has been used as a pro comp for prospects like Shedeur Sanders and Dillon Gabriel, but it's another passer who's a more appropriate comparison

Colorado Buffaloes quarterback Shedeur Sanders (2) passes the ball at the University of Colorado NFL Showcase at the CU Indoor Practice Facility. / Michael Ciaglo-Imagn Images

Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa seems to be a popular pro comparison for several high-profile passers in the upcoming 2025 NFL draft.

ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky said Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders reminds him of Tagovailoa, and Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel has drawn comparisons to the Dolphins’ starter for on-field and off-field reasons for a while.

We’ve covered why the Dolphins shouldn’t take Sanders in the first round, but it’s interesting to consider whether Tagovailoa is a good comparison point for Sanders or Gabriel. After all, the Dolphins should consider investing in a quarterback at some point in the draft, so figuring out which passers are similar to Tagovailoa is a helpful exercise.

Let’s consider the case for comparing Sanders and Gabriel to Tagovailoa before considering other quarterbacks similar to the Dolphins’ passer.

Comparing Sanders to Tagovailoa

If you paint Sanders’ profile with broad strokes, he does have similarities to Tua. Like Tua, Sanders is a physically limited passer who does his best work from the pocket with football IQ, accuracy, and anticipation.

Many analysts believe Sanders needs a good crop of playmakers and a specially curated scheme to be successful, which is the setup Tagovailoa has in Miami. That’s not a knock on either player, as pretty much every quarterback needs some variation of that infrastructure.

However, it’s hard not to look at Sanders’ middling tools and see a ceiling similar to the one Tagovailoa has at the NFL level. It’s one of the primary reasons we don’t believe the Dolphins should select him at 13th overall.

While Sanders likely will be ranked in the same bucket as Tagovailoa among all NFL quarterbacks, the way Sanders and Tagovailoa win from the pocket could not be more different.

Tagovailoa’s calling card is his quick trigger, allowing him to get the ball out quicker than any other passer in the NFL. Sanders prefers to hold on to the ball and push passes downfield.

Sanders had the nation’s 22nd-highest time to throw last season at 2.83 seconds, the highest among the major prospects in the upcoming draft.

Sanders attempted 69 passes between 21 and 30 air yards last season, compared to Tua’s 23 such attempts. Sanders played more snaps than Tua, and Miami’s offense was a lot more fixated on short passes for several reasons last season, but it’s clear Sanders attempts to hunt big plays far more than Tagovailoa does.

Sanders can do that because while his traits are similar to Tagovailoa’s, he’s a better athlete and has more arm strength. Sanders’ arm isn’t better than Tagovailoa’s by a lot, but it’s enough for him to be more effective outside the pocket and while on the move.

While that’s an advantage Sanders has over Tagovailoa, it comes with a weakness, too. Sanders takes a lot of sacks and creates a lot of his own pressure in the pocket.

Colorado’s offensive line wasn’t good the past two seasons, but Sanders contributed to its struggles at times. In reality, the difference between Sanders and Tua comes down to preference.

Would you prefer a quarterback who mitigates pressure by getting the ball out but can’t create if the pressure gets home too quickly (Tua) or a quarterback who will take more sacks but produce more big plays (Sanders)?

Either way, Sanders and Tagovailoa are incredibly different passers despite having some big-picture similarities.

Comparing Sanders to Tagovailoa isn’t a horrible idea, and it’s easy to see why someone like Orlovsky would do it. However, just because neither player has elite tools does not mean they play the same way on the field.

In fact, a recent ESPN article featured an anonymous NFL executive who compared Sanders to a former Dolphins quarterback, Teddy Bridgewater, a comparison we like a lot better.

Comparing Gabriel to Tagovailoa

Like Sanders, there are a lot of surface-level similarities between Gabriel and Tagovailoa. Gabriel’s even extend off the field, as he’s a left-handed quarterback who played his high school football in Hawaii.

Gabriel and Tagovailoa have similar releases, and neither player is known for their arm strength. If you watched Gabriel play at Oregon this past season, you saw him win with a quick release in the short areas of the field on a lot of schemed concepts.

That matches a lot of what Tagovailoa does for the Dolphins, but a few key differences prevent this comparison from being a slam dunk.

For starters, Gabriel and Tagovailoa like to target significantly different parts of the field.

Gabriel worked outside the numbers far more often for the Ducks’ offense this past season than Tagovailoa ever has under Mike McDaniel. Also, if you look past many of the schemed-up touches, Gabriel is far less accurate and anticipatory than Tagovailoa.

The other big difference is Gabriel’s willingness to extend plays with his legs and push the ball down the field. Despite poor arm strength, Gabriel did not shy away from throwing passes over the top of the defense.

There were several games where he held on to the ball in the pocket and hunted those passes. One of the reasons Gabriel is viewed as a Day 3 prospect is because those plays aren’t likely to translate in the NFL.

There’s a chance that Gabriel’s best chance to win at the NFL level is to play more like Tua does. Limiting how often Gabriel pushes the ball downfield and outside the numbers would make his arm problems less apparent.

Keeping him inside the pocket and playing like a point guard with a bunch of playmakers who have good speed would maximize his football IQ gained from starting for five seasons on three different college teams. But that’s not Gabriel’s game right now.

Tagovailoa is a “low-hanging fruit” comparison for Gabriel. The two quarterbacks have some similarities, but win in much different ways.

A Quarterback Who Compares More Favorably to Tua

There is one quarterback in the upcoming draft who operated a similar offense to the Dolphins and has comparable physical tools to Tagovailoa — Texas’ Quinn Ewers.

Texas head coach and play-caller Steve Sarkisian studied the Dolphins’ offense and assigned Ewers many of the same pre-snap motion and ball-handling responsibilities that Tagovailoa has in Miami.

Ewers was asked to work quick-game concepts similarly and to throw with trust in the offense more than reading out defenses. Now, Tagovailoa is significantly more accurate and anticipatory than Ewers, so the Texas version wasn’t identical.

However, it’s impossible not to watch the Texas offense from this past season and not see shades of how Tua wins in the Dolphins offense in Ewers’ game. Ewers has to win with anticipation from the pocket and can’t afford to hold the ball and hunt big plays down the field.

Ewers’ arm talent is probably a little bit better than Tua’s (ability to throw from different arm angles, not pure arm strength), and he’s obviously a little taller and a lot leaner. Still, his on-field play is much more similar to Tagovailoa’s than Sanders’ or Gabriel’s.

As of this writing, Ewers is the only quarterback with the Dolphins have been reported to hold a pre-draft visit. While those should be taken with a grain of salt, it does provide some credence to the idea that the Dolphins view Ewers as more of a fit for the offense.

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