Tua Contract Talks Still a Hot Topic

All signs continue to point to the Miami Dolphins signing their quarterback to a long-term contract extension as the debate continues as to whether that's the right move

Tua Tagovailoa / JIM RASSOL/THE PALM BEACH POST / USA

The biggest topic of conversation involving the Miami Dolphins this offseason continues to be just that, a hot topic.

Every single indication the organization has given — with their public comments and their actions — are that they will sign quarterback Tua Tagovailoa to a long-term contract extension this year instead of making him play on the fifth-year option of his rookie deal.

But just because the conclusion seems to be foregone doesn't mean the debate is over.

FORMER NFL RUNNING BACK PREACHING PATIENCE WITH TUA DEAL

The latest example came Wednesday during the show "Total Access" on the NFL Network when the Tua topic came up as a logical extension of a discussion about the Dolphins signing veteran wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr.

Analyst Marc Ross, who spent almost two decades working in scouting and personnel for the New York Giants, Philadelphia Eagles and Buffalo Bills, began the conversation.

"It's not a matter of if but just when they're going to do this Tua deal and Tua, he has shown the ability throughout the regular season and of course when the Dolphins sort of play the average to below average talent to be a machine in that offense where Mike McDaniel can scheme it up, he can get the ball out quick to those playmakers, adding another one with OBJ," said Ross, who like McDaniel was an Ivy League wide receiver (in his case at Princeton). "That's what he's really shown to do. And they've shown, GM Chris Grier has gone out publicly and said, we're going to get this done. I'm sure everyone in the building loves Tua, everyone feels an affinity for Tua and when you have that feeling, you take care of your guys. So that's what it is with Tua right now."

This is where Ross expressed some hesitation, the same concern that's been brought up by other media analysts and right here.

"My issue is, can he take it to another level? They were 1-5 last year against playoff teams, the one win was against the Cowboys —  another questionable real team — and they only scored 22 points," Ross said. "Then they get into the playoffs against Kansas City and only score seven and that was really off of one play, the bomb to Tyreek. So my issue with Tua is, yes, they're gonna get it done. You don't want to be stuck in QB purgatory and you sort of love your guys a little bit more and take care of them as opposed to where will we be without him, but as far as competing with Lamar (Jackson), Patrick (Mahomes), Josh (Allen), Joe Burrow, I don't think he's in that class."

As we've said here before, it's unfair to pin the offensive shortcomings the Dolphins experienced solely on Tua, though at the same time we also must acknowledge it wasn't all him who got the Dolphins to finish first in the NFL in total offense.

We'd also take issue with Ross' comment about not wanting "to be stuck in QB purgatory" because that sounds an awful lot like settling for something good because of fear of winding up with something worse while taking a shot for something better — if that all makes sense.

We've advocated here repeatedly that our favored approach would be to revisit the issue next offseason after Tua plays on the fifth-year option and lock him up for the long term if he proves he can elevate his game — and that doesn't necessarily mean winning a playoff game — at crunch time against quality opponents.

Robert Turbin, a running back who played for four teams during his eight-year NFL career, also offered that approach during the "Total Access" episode.

"Well, if it's not a matter of if but when, why can't we wait until the season is over?" Turbin asked. "Have him prove it to you for another year. We've seen this from other quarterbacks that pertain to hey, we may have a guy who can get it done in the regular season, but it's not about the regular season. It's about winnining championships where you step out there on that gridiron and we've seen big-paid quarterback or highly paid quarterbacks continuously fall short. Dak Prescott is an example of that. Kirk Cousins is an example of that. If I'm the Dolphins, give myself another season before I commit so much money to a guy who hasn't necessarily proven it in the postseason on a consistent basis yet. Not to say he won't be able to do it in the future. just haven't seen it quite yet. So I'd be patient, I'd practice patience if I were the Miami Dolphins in this situation."

The one issue with Turbin's position is that specifying postseason failures is not fair for Tua considering he's played only one playoff game, and that game was in miserable weather conditions at Kansas City with several of skill position players operating at less than 100 percent.

DIVING INTO TUA'S STATS

From here, it's not about coming up short in the postseason, but rather against playoff opponents, and not just last season but throughout Tua's career. The stat that stands out here is 26 touchdown passes against 19 interceptions and his 82.0 passer rating against playoff opponents, along with a 6-15 record in those games.

Again, this is not suggest that Tua hasn't been good because he has, but if we're going to look at his statistical success — leading the NFL in passer rating in 2022, leading the NFL in passing yards in 2023, Pro Bowl starter — we also have to look at the totality of the body of work.

Like the Dolphins as a whole, Tua has been very good to excellent against mediocre competition (non-playoff opponents) the past two seasons, but not nearly good enough against playoff teams.

Based on everything we've heard, the Dolphins feel that will improve, which is why the expectation is that the contract extension is going to happen.

"I'm told the negotiations have begun in earnest," NFL reporter Jeremy Fowler reported on ESPN a few days ago. "The Dolphins have at least gotten the ball rolling. Typically what happens is team makes a contract offer, the player counters and then they go from there and see if they can find a sweet spot. So the next three months will be crucial. My sense is this has not graduated to something that's imminent but the Dolphins are pretty committed to this. Their actions this offseason say that they're going to pay him. They scaled back a lot of the big-money contracts, cutting players like Xavien Howard, so they want to do this. They wanted Tua to prove that he can have a fully healthy season and produce; he did that, 4,600-plus yards, 11 wins. So this could be the path of least resistance among all these quarterbacks that get signed deals around the league."

In the meantime, Tua continues to work in the Dolphins offseason program (voluntary except for the June minicamp) and squeeze in some golf while he can.

His golfing partner this week was teammate Jalen Ramsey, who made his feelings pretty clear about the Tua extension situation.

Jalen Ramsey wants Tua PAID

P.S. I’m beating Tua in a golf match pic.twitter.com/I3Q1UFUSYn

— Nic Rohloff (@nic_rohloff) May 8, 2024

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