Updated Dolphins Playoff Outlook Through Week 15
The Miami Dolphins got some help in their quest to make the playoffs Sunday when AFC East opponents New England and the New York Jets both lost, but they dropped in the conference standings after the Los Angeles Chargers defeated the Tennessee Titans.
Through Week 15 (the Sunday night and Monday night games feature NFC teams only), there remain nine teams who currently are at .500 or better, and the Jacksonville Jaguars also have to qualify as playoff contenders even at 6-8 because they're now only one game behind the Tennessee Titans.
The Dolphins still have a mathematical chance of winning the AFC East title, but they would have to win their final three games and have Buffalo lost its last three.
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The Dolphins now stand seventh in the AFC standings and would face the Kansas City Chiefs in the first round of the playoffs if the regular season ended today.
DOLPHINS' PLAYOFF PERCENTAGE
Despite their third consecutive loss, the Dolphins' playoff chances increased this week from 70 to 72 percent, per predictive website fivethirtyeight.com, though their chance of winning the East title dropped to a microscopic 0.4 percent.
As a reminder, regardless of what happens anywhere else in the AFC, the Dolphins will make the playoffs with victories against the Patriots in Week 16 and against the Jets in Week 17. If they go 2-1, the lowest Dolphins percent, per fivethirthyeight.com, would be no lower than 88 percent.
A victory against Green Bay on Christmas Day would boost the Dolphins' playoff percentage to 81 percent.
ANOTHER FLEX AHEAD FOR DOLPHINS?
The Buffalo game was the second in a row in prime time for the Dolphins after it was picked among five TBD games on the original schedule to be slotted into the Saturday night spot and the Chargers game was flexed to SNF, and given the standings it certainly is possible there could be another prime-time game ahead for Miami.
And it's precisely those two AFC East games in Week 17 and Week 18 that could be involved.
The current Week 17 Sunday night game has the Rams facing the Chargers, but the Rams are out of playoff contention and these are not traditional TV powerhouses — like Dallas, Pittsburgh or Kansas City with Patrick Mahomes, for examples.
And looking at the overall Week 17 schedule, the Dolphins-Patriots game could end up being the best Sunday matchup. Other flex possibilities if the NFL goes that route would be the Jets at Seattle or Carolina at Tampa Bay, the latter not because they're two good teams but because the game could end up deciding the NFC South title (plus Tom Brady, of course).
The Week 18 Sunday night usually is the one that has playoff implications for both teams, so Dolphins-Jets at this time certainly fits that criteria.
The NFL will announce the finalized Week 17 schedule next Tuesday, but the Week 18 schedule will be announced early that week to maximize the chances of having the best matchup.
As a quick look ahead, the Week 16 games involving AFC teams at or over .500 will be Jaguars (6-8) at Jets (7-7) on Thursday; Falcons (5-9) at Ravens (9-5), Bills (11-3) at Bears (3-11), Seahawks (7-7) at Chiefs (11-3), Bengals (10-4) at Patriots (7-7), Texans (1-12-1) at Titans (7-7) on Saturday; Packers (5-8) at Dolphins (8-6) on Sunday; and Chargers (8-6) at Colts (4-9-1) on Monday.
REMAINING SCHEDULES FOR AFC PLAYOFF CONTENDERS
Teams listed in order of current AFC seedings:
BUFFALO BILLS (11-3) — at Chicago, at Cincinnati, vs. New England
KANSAS CITY (11-3) — vs. Seattle, vs. Denver, at Las Vegas
CINCINNATI (10-4) — at New England, vs. Buffalo, vs. Baltimore
TENNESSEE (7-7) — vs. Houston, vs. Dallas, at Jacksonville
BALTIMORE (9-5) — vs. Atlanta, vs. Pittsburgh, at Cincinnati
L.A. CHARGERS (8-6) — at Indianapolis, vs. L.A. Rams, at Denver
MIAMI (8-6) — vs .Green Bay, at New England, vs. N.Y. Jets
NEW ENGLAND (7-7) — vs. Cincinnati, vs. Miami, at Buffalo
N.Y. JETS (7-7) — vs. Jacksonville, at Seattle, at Miami
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