Week 16 Rooting Guide: Broncos or Chargers?

The Miami Dolphins are still alive for the playoffs but will need a lot of help over the final three weeks

Houston Texans cornerback Kamari Lassiter (4) defends against a pass intended for Miami Dolphins wide receiver Jaylen Waddle (17) during the second quarter at NRG Stadium. / Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

The Week 16 slate of NFL games will kick off with the first-ever flexed Thursday night game, and it's a game that potentially could have major implications for the Miami Dolphins.

The new game will matchup at SoFi Stadium between the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers will feature two teams that currently hold two of the three wild-card spots in the AFC and stand in the way of the Dolphins getting a third consecutive playoff berth.

The Dolphins currently are tied with the Indianapolis Colts and Cincinnati Bengals for eighth in the AFC standings, and have a pretty clear picture when it comes to what needs to happen for them to make the playoffs — or conversely how they could get eliminated from playoff contention.

Because of their conference record, the Dolphins will be in a favorable spot in any tiebreaker scenario except for one that would involve the Colts because of the head-to-head matchup at Lucas Oil Stadium in Week 7.

The Dolphins, Colts and Bengals are two games behind the Chargers for the last playoff spot, with the Broncos and Baltimore Ravens both at 9-5. Because the Dolphins can finish no better than 9-8, it means one more loss for them or one more victory for either the Broncos or Ravens would mean they couldn't catch them — in other words, the "tragic number" when it comes to the Dolphins versus the Ravens and Broncos is one.

The "tragic number" with the Chargers is two, meaning any combination of two Chargers victories or Dolphins losses eliminates Miami.

So should the Dolphins and their fans root for the Broncos or Chargers on Thursday night?

On the surface, rooting for Denver makes sense because the Dolphins would need only one more Chargers loss to be able to match their record (and get the tiebreaker). The problem there is that the Chargers' final two games, while both on the road, are against the three-win New England Patriots and the two-win Las Vegas Raiders.

Denver has a much tougher finishing schedule, with games at Cincinnati and against the Kansas City Chiefs after the Thursday night game against the Chargers, but remember that the Broncos would need only one win and it's possible they'll play their finale against a Chiefs team resting players if they've already clinched the No. 1 seed in the AFC.

THE WEEKEND SCHEDULE

If the Chargers do defeat the Broncos on Thursday, it would be hard to envision them losing against both New England and Las Vegas, leaving Denver losses against Cincinnati and Kansas City as perhaps the best path to the playoffs.

The Dolphins' chances of catching the Ravens don't appear realistic because after two tough games coming up — vs. Pittsburgh and at Houston — Baltimore closes with a home game against the Cleveland Browns.

The Colts also could be a problem simply because of their remaining schedule, which is — um — rather undaunting: vs. Tennessee, at New York Giants, vs. Jacksonville.

If Indy wins out, then the Dolphins would have to overtake two of the teams ahead of them, which obviously complicates matter.

If the Dolphins catch a major break, they actually could have control of their fate heading into their Week 17 game at Cleveland: if the Broncos win Thursday, the Titans defeat the Colts, on Sunday, the Dolphins defeat the 49ers, and then the Patriots upset the Chargers on Saturday, Dec. 28.

If those four results materialize, then the Dolphins would be assured of making the playoffs with victories in their flexed-out Week 17 game at Cleveland and in the road finale against the New York Jets.