What Are Fair Expectations for the Dolphins Defense?

The Miami Dolphins defense has made many significant changes since last season, starting with new coordinator Anthony Weaver.

Miami Dolphins defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver talks to cornerback Jalen Ramsey (5) during mandatory minicamp at Baptist Health Training Complex. / Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports

How good will the Miami Dolphins' defense be in 2024?

That might be the biggest question facing the team heading into the regular season, which begins against the Jacksonville Jaguars at Hard Rock Stadium on September 8th.

Sure, the Dolphins have other question marks at this time, whether it be the interior of the offensive line or the depth at wide receiver, but we should have a much better idea of how those will play out than we do how things will work out on defense.

It is the great unknown for this 2024 Dolphins team, and the answer could be the difference between a memorable season and a forgettable one.

What we heard from Dolphins players during training camp about new defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver and his scheme was how wonderful everything is and should be, but this is where we point out that it's exactly what you should expect to hear at that time of year — because training camp is all about hope and positivity.

The reality is we don't know.

DOLPHINS DEFENSE RANKINGS

The uncertainty regarding this Dolphins defense and how good it can be in 2024 is reflected perfectly with just a pair of national media outlet rankings of the NFL defense.

In one corner, we have Pro Football Network, which in mid-August ranked the Miami defense at number 12, and in another, The Ringer ranked Miami at number 24.

This is What PFN Wrote

The loss of Christian Wilkins stings, but Miami found a way to add Jordyn Brooks, Kendall Fuller, and Jordan Poyer to help steady the ship. Plus, Calais Campbell and Teair Tart can hold it down up front. Furthermore, this unit stands to benefit from an offense that will score a lot of points and maintain a lot of drives.

- Pro Football Network

This is What the Ringer Wrote

This is one of the hardest groups to project. The Dolphins defense was starting to come on strong under Vic Fangio last season before it was hit with a number of devastating injuries. Miami ended up ranking 19th, but after the season, the organization decided to move on from Fangio, with reports surfacing about how he clashed with players. Replacing Fangio is coordinator Anthony Weaver, who had been serving as an assistant with the Ravens. In Weaver's one season as a coordinator with the Texans in 2020, the defense ranked 31st in efficiency. From a talent perspective, the Dolphins let defensive tackle Christian Wilkins walk in free agency. The edge pairing of Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb looks great on paper, but both are coming off of season-ending injuries. Linebacker Jordyn Brooks and cornerback Kendall Fuller were reasonable pickups. And Miami took fliers on older vets like defensive tackle Calais Campbell and safety Jordan Poyer. While the Dolphins can hope for better injury luck, they very well could get worse turnover luck. Only the Giants and Bills gained more EPA on takeaways than the Dolphins last season. If the players take to Weaver more than they took to Fangio, and if the injured players can come back strong early in the season, I could see this group making a jump. But those are big ifs.

- The Ringer

To illustrate the uncertainty of this Miami defense, Teair Tart no longer is with the Dolphins. And this isn't about a dig at PFN because that move was surprising, and he made the 53-man roster, proving once again that nothing should be assumed when it comes to Weaver's group.

REASONS FOR HOPE, REASONS FOR CONCERNS WITH DOLPHINS DEFENSE

The Dolphins do have some top-end talent on defense. Jalen Ramsey is one of the top five cornerbacks in the NFL; Jevon Holland has great safety talent; Zach Sieler is among the best interior DTs; Phillips is a very good edge defender; David Long Jr. is a thumper at linebacker.

And with Weaver, this is somebody who is considered a star on the rise, a potential or even likely future NFL head coach.

But ...

Yes, this is where we have to point out both sides. There are some injury concerns regarding the high-end talent, particularly at the start of the season.

Of course, Phillips is coming off his Achilles injury, and while everything appears totally positive heading into the regular season, there are no guarantees that he'll be Jaelan Phillips again.

And the Dolphins also will start the season without their other high-end pass rusher, Bradley Chubb.

With the secondary, the concern early on will be cohesiveness, considering the projected starters didn't line up together once (as best we can recall) during all of training camp because Jordan Poyer, Jevon Holland, and Jalen Ramsey all dealt with injuries at one time or another.

And on top of that, Holland Ramsey has yet to practice lately.

There's also the question of the defensive line and how adequately (or not) the team was able to replace Christian Wilkins. Yes, Calais Campbell was a great addition because he's a future Hall of Famer (likely) who brings great leadership to boot, but the reality is that Campbell is turning 38 on Sunday. And that's pretty old for a defensive lineman.

His play didn't dip at all at age 37 with the Atlanta Falcons last season, but Father Time always wins, and older players eventually start to fade at some point.

Finally, there's Weaver, who, for all his promise, has only one year of experience as an NFL defensive coordinator. In one season, his Houston Texans were 32nd in total yards allowed. Yes, injuries were a major factor in that 2020 season, but the stats are the stats.

The preseason didn't offer many clues about defense because there were so few first-team vs. first-team matchups, and defensive coordinators didn't get their hands in those meaningless games. We'll probablyWe'llthings from Weaver in that season opener against Jacksonville that we haven't seen yet.

The fact that he comes from Baltimore, where the defense was so good last season, is likely a reason for optimism.

But the reality is we don't know.

The 2023 defense, for example, started really slowly but then got better as the season progressed until injuries ravaged the unit in the final weeks.

Will there be a similar pattern in 2024? Will the defense be good from the start? Will it be a struggle from start to finish?

Who knows?

It's the biggest question facing the Dolphins and maybe the biggest key to their overall success in 2024.