What History Tells Us About the Dolphins' 1-3 Start

The Miami Dolphins have started an NFL season at 1-3 for the 11th time

Tennessee Titans running back Tony Pollard (20) runs with the football against the Miami Dolphins during the third quarter at Hard Rock Stadium. / Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

The Miami Dolphins started 3-0 in each of Mike McDaniel's first two seasons as head coach, but they now find themselves at 1-3 to start the 2024 season following their dismal 31-12 Monday night loss against the Tennessee Titans on Monday night.

Based on recent team history, though, the outlook for the rest of the season doesn't necessarily have to be gloomy.

This is the 11th time the Dolphins have started a season 1-3 since they joined the NFL in 1970 following four seasons as members of the American Football League, the last time coming in 2021 when that 1-3 start nosedived to 1-7.

But in that 2021 season, just like in 2020 and 2016 when the team also started 1-3, the team rebounded to finish with a winning record — and they even were able to make the playoffs in that 2016 season, which was Adam Gase's first as Dolphins head coach.

So the Dolphins are riding a streak of three 1-3 starts that ended with winning records, which is the exact opposite of what had happened to that point.

Yes, the first seven times the Dolphins started 1-3 they failed to end the season with a winning record, managing to get to 8-8 twice (in 1986 and 1989).

For those keeping score, the Dolphins started 1-3 only three times during Don Shula's 26 years as head coach; it's been seven times in the 29 seasons since he stopped being the team's head coach.

Along with the Shula seasons, the Dolphins started 1-3 twice under Joe Philbin (2012, 2015) and Brian Flores (2020, 2021) and once each with Nick Saban (2006), Tony Sparano (2009), Gase (2016) and now McDaniel.

RECENT 1-3 STARTS AROUND THE NFL

Looking at the NFL, the most relevant research would go back only to the start of the 2021 season because that's when the schedule went to 17 games, and starting 1-3 in a 16-game schedule made making the playoffs more challenging.

The Dolphins are one of nine teams around the NFL currently sporting a 1-3 record, along with their opponents Sunday, the New England Patriots.

Over the past three seasons, since the schedule went to 17 games, 24 teams have started 1-3 and three of those teams went on to make the playoffs that season.

All three of those occurrences came in 2021 when the Patriots, Pittsburgh Steelers and Philadelphia Eagles all overcame their 1-3 start to reach the postseason. It's important to note that all three teams won their fifth game to get to 2-3, which would underscore the importance of the Dolphins winning at Gillette Stadium on Sunday.

In 2022 and 2023, a total of 15 teams started 1-3 and all failed to make the playoffs, though the 2022 Steelers and Detroit Lions and the 2023 Cincinnati Bengals did finish with a winning record.