What the Christmas Day Results Mean for the Dolphins

The Miami Dolphins' already treacherous path to the playoffs got even dicier after what happened on Christmas Day

Miami Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel walks down the sideline during second half between the Miami Dolphins and the San Francisco 49ers at Hard Rock Stadium. / Jasen Vinlove-Imagn Images

As the NFL world watched the Kansas City Chiefs wrap up the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs for the fourth time in seven seasons on Christmas Day, the Miami Dolphins saw their very slim playoff hopes take a not-insignificant blow.

It has nothing to do with the Chiefs, or any of the four teams involved in the Christmas Day games, but rather with the Denver Broncos, who will face Kansas City in their season finale next weekend.

Along with winning their final two games — at Cleveland and at the New York Jets — the Dolphins need two of three different scenarios to play out, and one of those involves Denver losing its final two games.

The Broncos are underdogs for their game against the Cincinnati Bengals at Paycor Stadium on Sunday and likely would have been underdogs as well against the Chiefs in Week 18 even with the game in Denver — had the Chiefs needed to win to clinch that No. 1 spot.

But now we can expect the Chiefs to treat that game much differently, and that means probably no Patrick Mahomes, no Travis Kelce and maybe one or two other front-line players.

THE PRECEDENT OF FINALES FOR NO. 1 SEEDS

With their 29-10 victory against playoff-bound Pittsburgh on Christmas Day, the Chiefs became the seventh team in the past seven seasons to clinch a No. 1 seed in the next-to-last week of the regular season.

Of the past six, only one used its starting quarterback in its meaningless finale, and that the 2021 Green Bay Packers and Aaron Rodgers.

And the won-loss record in the final week for those eight teams is 1-7, the only victory produced by the 2019 Baltimore Ravens, who defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers with Robert Griffin III at quarterback and Lamar Jackson watching from the sideline.

The Chiefs' previous three No. 1 seeds included one in 2020 where they clinched befofe the final week of the regular, and the next week they sat Mahomes, defensive star Tyrann Mathieu and (you might recognize the name) Tyreek Hill.

Another current Dolphins player, Terron Armstead, was in that situation in 2018 when the New Orleans sat him, along with Drew Brees and Alvin Kamara for their finale against Carolina after clinching the No. 1 seed.

Yet another current Dolphins player was on the other side of this, and this was Tyler "Snoop" Huntley starting at quarterback for the Ravens last season for their finale against Pittsburgh after they already had clinched the No. 1 seed (with a victory against the Dolphins). The Ravens lost that game, with the victory putting Pittsburgh into the playoffs.

The other No. 1 seed in the 2023 playoffs went to the San Francisco 49ers, they also clinched early, and they also sat players (Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, among others) for their meaningless finale.

Of course, the fact that none of those six teams that clinched early went on to win the Super Bowl might convince Andy Reid to change course and use Mahomes against the Broncos in Week 18, but we probably shouldn't hold our breath that's going to happen.

However the Chiefs decide to play things for their Denver game, the Broncos losing their final two games is one of the two avenues (out of three options) the Dolphins need as outside help to make the playoffs.

The other two:

-- The L.A. Chargers lose their final two games, at New England and at Las Vegas.

-- The Indianapolis Colts lost one of their final two games, at the New York Giants or at home against the Jacksonville Jaguars.