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Why a Stafford Trade Might Sound Good But Is So Unrealistic

Former NFL quarterback Chase Daniel said that as an analyst, he would suggest a three-way trade that would bring Matthew Stafford to Miami.

Dante Collinelli

Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) throws in the second half against the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium.
Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) throws in the second half against the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium. / Matt Kartozian-Imagn Images
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There has been much speculation about the future of the Miami Dolphins quarterback situation following Tua Tagovailoa's injury against the Buffalo Bills. On Wednesday, that speculation reached nonsensical levels.

FOX Sports analyst and former NFL quarterback Chase Daniel proposed a trade deal to solve the Dolphins' quarterback dilemma while attempting — and failing — to help the Rams and Panthers.

In this deal, the Dolphins would receive Matthew Stafford, the Panthers would get Miami's second-round pick and Los Angeles' third-rounder, and finally, the Rams would receive Bryce Young, who was benched for Andy Dalton on Monday.

Calling this trade a fairytale would be kind, but it's par for the course in 2024. People are still bringing up the Dolphins' pursuit of Tom Brady, even though he's becoming a minority owner of the Las Vegas Raiders and making plenty of money broadcasting games for FOX.

Obviously, the Dolphins acquiring Stafford would be a great move, and it's hard to imagine them not agreeing to the terms Daniel proposed. Stafford would be the Dolphins' most physically talented quarterback since Dan Marino retired.

However, there are many reasons why this trade would never come to fruition.

All Angles of Potential Stafford Deal

Let's start with the most obvious speed bump. Why would the Rams want to move Stafford in the first place? By Daniels' admission, Stafford is a "consensus top eight to ten quarterback."

While the Rams are off to a 0-2 start and struggling with injuries, they are still in a winning window. There's no reason to believe they want to blow things up this early in the season.

Additionally, under General Manager Les Snead and head coach Sean McVay, the Rams' whole team-building strategy has centered on valuing veteran talents over draft picks.

Even in a universe where the Rams would want to move Stafford, getting just Bryce Young in return is comical. In this scenario, the Rams would get a historically bad quarterback in exchange for one of the NFL's best.

Since the start of the 2023 season, Young's EPA (Expected Points Added) per drop back (-0.24) is the fifth-worst among qualified passers, according to TruMedia. Zach Wilson and Easton Stick are just a few names with a better rating. For reference, Stafford sits tenth during that span.

Young has been floated as a potential Dolphins target, but given his recent performance, Miami doesn't likely trade for him either. Still, that is more likely than a Stafford deal.

What's a More Realistic Stafford Trade?

Let's stay in our fictional universe where the Rams are willing to trade Stafford. Instead of involving the Panthers, let's look at a potential deal between Los Angeles and Miami.

Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson were the most recent highly touted veteran quarterback trades.

Wilson was traded to the Broncos for two first-round draft picks, two second-rounders, and a fifth-rounder, along with quarterback Drew Lock, tight end Noah Fant, and defensive end Shelby Harris.

Rodgers was traded for a first-round pick swap in the 2023 NFL draft, a 2023 second-round pick (No. 42), a 2023 sixth-round pick (No. 207), and a conditional 2024 second-round pick.

Of course, Stafford was also traded before. He went to Los Angeles in exchange for Jared Goff, a 2021 third-round pick, and first-round picks in 2022 and 2023.

At least one first-round pick was involved in each deal. Although the Packers only swapped picks with the Jets, Rodgers' value was likely lower then than what Stafford's would be now. Rodgers was older, coming off a bad season, publicly undermining any leverage the Packers had.

There's also the money component of the deal. Stafford has a $23,5 million guaranteed salary in 2024, according to Over The Cap, which puts Miami's current cap space at a little over $6 million. The other well-known contract website, Spotrac, has the Dolphins as having a little more than $23 of cap space.

That means Miami might restructure Stafford's deal (he has no reason to do this) or include a significant salary in the trade.

Let's pretend the money can be worked out. The teams have pulled off more significant cap miracles in the past. Miami manipulated the cap pretty well this past offseason.

A Stafford trade's bare bones probably involve Miami's 2025 first-round pick and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. The Dolphins could also receive a Day 3 pick, but this deal makes significantly more sense than Daniel's.

In this scenario, the Rams get something of value for Stafford and a quarterback who has proven to be — at a minimum — a solid starter on the field. Tua's injury situation greatly complicates this hypothetical.

However, as we mentioned at the top, this is all a pipe dream anyway. There's no reason to believe the Rams want to move Stafford, and it's hard to imagine how Miami would even absorb his contract for this season.

Things may change in the offseason. The Rams could bottom out, and Tua's long-term outlook could be clearer. For now, it's best to look at these proposals with a highly critical eye.

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Dante Collinelli

DANTE COLLINELLI

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