Why the Playoffs Remain a Long Shot for Dolphins

The Miami Dolphins still need help to make the postseason even if they can close with a third consecutive victory

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) meets with Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) following the 2024 AFC wild card game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. / Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

If the Miami Dolphins wind up missing out on the playoffs by one game, they're going to look back at some of those games that slipped away, probably none more so than the Week 7 matchup against the Indianapolis Colts.

But we also could look back at any of those improbable Kansas City Chiefs victories throughout the season because if even only one of those had gone the other way, the Chiefs would have something at stake in Week 18 and would have a much higher likelihood of giving the Dolphins a Denver Broncos defeat that's a must if Miami is to return to the playoffs.

As it is, the Chiefs have the No. 1 seed locked up and widely are expected to sit quarterback Patrick Mahomes and other front-line players to avoid injuries heading into the playoffs, which has made Denver a prohibitive favorite for the game at Empower Field at Mile High.

The Broncos are favored by a whopping 8 points, according to BetOnline.ag, the fourth-highest opening spread for Week 18. By comparison, the Dolphins are favored by 2 points over the New York Jets, who are closing out another highly disappointing season.

Veteran Carson Wentz is expected to start at quarterback for the Chiefs, but exactly how many offensive starters he'll have with him is unclear.

The Dolphins actually should feel fortunate just to still have a chance because things looked bleak a couple of times late in the Broncos' overtime loss against the Cincinnati Bengals on Saturday when a different result would have meant playoff elimination — the Broncos had the ball at midifeld late with the score tied, then basically needed one first down on their second overtime possession to kill the clock and secure the final AFC playoff spot with a tie.

THE CHIEFS AND MEANINGLESS GAMES

We chronicled before the Chiefs' previous meaningless finale after clinching the No. 1 seed and how they lost against the Chargers in 2020 while sitting most of their starters, but they did something similar last season.

It was the No. 3 seed that the Chiefs had clinched last season heading into their season finale, again against the Chargers.

But the Chiefs, with Blaine Gabbert starting at quarterback and a long list of front-line players inactive or not playing, won that game 13-12 on a last-second field goal.

The big difference is the Chiefs weren't facing a team needing a win to make the playoffs in that game. They were facing a Chargers team coming in with a 5-11 record and closing out their season under interim head coach Giff Smith and with Easton Stick starting at quarterback with Justin Herbert finishing the season on IR.

So, yeah, those are significantly different circumstances.

It may be that hoping for a win by a Chiefs team much more concerned about their playoff prep for a potential three-peat than winning another regular season game, but stranger things have happened.

The Chiefs were proof that anything can happen all season with their wins on a very late (albeit correctly called) defensive pass inteference, a blocked field goal, a miscommunication leading to a fumble with the Raiders in field goal range, a blatant DPI not called, and so on, and so on.

Maybe they have another magic trick up their sleeves for another improbable victory.

THE DOLPHINS' PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

If the Chiefs do find a way to defeat Denver and the Dolphins take care of their business against the Jets, the Dolphins will land the No. 7 seed and that would send them to Buffalo for their first-round playoff game.

The Bills, who clinched the AFC East title weeks ago, wrapped up the second seed Sunday with a 40-14 victory against those same Jets the Dolphins must defeat in Week 18.

Because the NFL schedules matchups between No. 4 and 5 seeds for its Monday night game, this would mean the Dolphins game at Buffalo would be either Saturday, Jan. 11 or Sunday, Jan. 12.

Continuing with the hypotheticals, a win at Buffalo would mean a return trip to Arrowhead Stadium to face the Chiefs in the divisional round on the weekend of Jan. 18-19.

The possibility of getting the sixth seed disappeared when the Chargers defeated the New England Patriots on Saturday to move to 10-6 on the season.

CHIEFS FOLLOWING A POPULAR PATTERN

The Chiefs became the seventh team since 2018 to clinch the No. 1 seed in the AFC or NFL playoffs and will be the sixth to sit its starting quarterback in its regular season finale, the one exception being the 2021 Green Bay Packers and Aaron Rodgers.

And the won-loss record in the final week for those six teams is 1-5, the only victory produced by the 2019 Baltimore Ravens, who defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers with Robert Griffin III at quarterback and Lamar Jackson watching from the sideline.

The Chiefs' previous three No. 1 seeds included one in 2020 where they clinched befofe the final week of the regular, and the next week they sat Mahomes, defensive star Tyrann Mathieu and (you might recognize the name) Tyreek Hill.

Another current Dolphins player, Terron Armstead, was in that situation in 2018 when the New Orleans sat him, along with Drew Brees and Alvin Kamara for their finale against Carolina after clinching the No. 1 seed.

Yet another current Dolphins player was on the other side of this, and this was Tyler "Snoop" Huntley starting at quarterback for the Ravens last season for their finale against Pittsburgh after they already had clinched the No. 1 seed (with a victory against the Dolphins). The Ravens lost that game, with the victory putting Pittsburgh into the playoffs.

The other No. 1 seed in the 2023 playoffs went to the San Francisco 49ers, they also clinched early, and they also sat players (Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, among others) for their meaningless finale.