Would the Dolphins Actually Draft a QB Early?
GM Chris Grier acknowledged the obvious during his end-of-season press conference, saying that no stone would be left unturned to come up with an answer, and that includes the draft.
This, of course, raises some questions, mainly exactly how early in the draft process would the Dolphins consider taking a quarterback. And then there's the question of whether that should be the way to go in the first place, both from a short-term and long-term view.
The Dolphins taking a quarterback in the draft when they already have their starter in place just isn't something they do.
The evidence comes from the fact that since they drafted Ryan Tannehill in the first round in 2012, the Dolphins have taken exactly two quarterbacks other than Tua in 2020, those two picks used on Brandon Doughty in 2016 and Skylar Thompson in 2022.
Both in the seventh round.
Both clearly picked as projects in the hopes of landing that hidden gem who somehow eluded all other organizations, like the New England Patriots did with Tom Brady (though obviously not to the same extent) or the San Francisco 49ers did with Brock Purdy.
Not surprisingly, neither panned out, even if Thompson stuck around for three years before the Dolphins let him leave.
But it's what you should expect with a seventh-round quarterback because guys like Brady and even Purdy are the extraordinarily rare exceptions.
And that brings us to one important question regarding the Dolphins and this idea of drafting a quarterback.
WOULD THE DOLPHINS REALLY DRAFT A QB EARLY?
That question is whether the Dolphins would draft a quarterback to serve as the primary backup immediately or to develop as a potential down-the-line starter.
And, before we proceed, let's offer up this sobering note: Of the eight remaining starting quarterbacks in the NFL playoffs, seven were first-round picks and the other was Eagles second-round selection Jalen Hurts. Of the 14 starters among playoff teams, only two (Russell Wilson was the other) weren't first-round picks.
Maybe it's pure coincidence, but this data would suggest the time to get a quarterback is in the first round.
But would the Dolphins, slated to have the 13th overall selection, really consider taking a quarterback in the first round when they have needs all over the roster — safety, interior offensive line, defensive tackle, to name three — and they have committed to Tagovailoa as their starter for realistically at least the next two seasons?
OK, how about the second round?
Is that much better?
Let's also understand the Dolphins decision-makers, Grier and head coach Mike McDaniel, probably are about to enter a make-or-break season with a strong possibility of dismissal if there's no playoffs again in 2025.
Do we really expect them to select a player who, if things go well with Tagovailoa and he doesn't have to miss any games in 2025, wouldn't even see the field?
THE IDEAL BACKUP QUARTERBACK
The Dolphins obviously cannot leave themselves vulnerable in 2025 the way they did this season when Thompson clearly wasn't ready for his moment, even with the small sample size of game action he got against the Seattle Seahawks.
That the Dolphins wound up having to rely on a quarterback (Tyler Huntley) who began the season on another team's practice squad after failing to beat out Dorian Thompson-Robinson for the Cleveland Browns' No. 3 job was as big an indictment on the organization as anything that happened in 2024.
From this end, the No. 2 quarterback in 2025 absolutely, positively, without a doubt has to be a veteran with enough starts that the Dolphins will know what they're getting — and that player has to come via free agency or trade.
Whether it's Joe Flacco, Marcus Mariota, Jimmy Garoppolo or Andy Dalton or somebody else, that can be dissected at another time, but it needs to be a veteran where the moment won't be too big for him and with a more proven track record than Huntley.
It's fine if Huntley is brought back to compete for the No. 2 job, but the other QB on the offseason roster needs to be a major upgrade over Thompson and the other competitor for the backup job last year, Mike White.
Under no scenario should be the top backup next season be a rookie draft pick.
There's too much of an unknown there in the first place with a team that still should have enough talent to compete at the very least for a playoff spot.
THE DOLPHINS' MISSED OPPORTUNITIES
There's nothing wrong, per se, with taking a shot at landing a potential future starting quarterback, but again starting quarterbacks these days usually are found in the first round.
Even those who don't start right away.
Patrick Mahomes was a first-round pick who sat before starting. Same with Jordan Love. Same with Josh Allen.
Of the top 15 finishers in passer rating in 2024, a group that included Tagovailoa, all but three were first-round picks. The exceptions: Hurts, Purdy and Wilson.
The Dolphins had a chance to take a quarterback with the potential to become a starter down the line in the 2023 draft with Hendon Hooker from the University of Tennessee coming off a knee injury before he was taken by Detroit in the third round, but Miami instead selected Cam Smith in the second round — and Smith has barely seen the field in his first two NFL seasons.
And the Dolphins could have taken a flier last year on another former Tennessee QB, Joe Milton III, whose game has flaws but whose combination of size, mobility and arm strength makes him look like a poor man's Josh Allen.
The New England Patriots took him in the sixth round — after they had selected Drake Maye third overall — and maybe the Dolphins should have grabbed him in Round 5 instead of taking Mohamed Kamara, who may become a contributor on defense at some point but didn't get on the field as a rookie despite a rash of injuries at outside linebacker.
THE BOTTOM LINE
So, yeah sure, the idea of taking a quarterback in the 2025 NFL draft sounds good, but it says here we'll see it when we believe it unless Grier and McDaniel are more confident in their footing within the organization than it might appear from the outside.
Taking a quarterback would be a move for the future and protection against another Tagovailoa injury that would leave Miami needing a new full-time starter because the backup needs to be a veteran.
The Dolphins also don't have the luxury of having a roster deep enough that they can use a pick on a developmental player, though that kind of hasn't stopped them in recent years.
If the Dolphins do end up taking a quarterback in the draft, we figure it will again be later rather than sooner in the proceedings and then he'll spend his rookie season developing as the No. 3 at the position.