Is Denver Broncos Top Pick Bo Nix Likely A Draft Bust Or Offensive Rookie of The Year?

Can Sean Payton accelerate Nix's transition to the NFL to make him a solid starter as a rookie?

May 23, 2024; Englewood, CO, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) during organized team activities at Centura Health Training Center. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports / Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

The 2024 NFL Draft saw six quarterbacks fly off the board in the top-12 picks. The sixth QB taken was Oregon's Bo Nix, who landed with Sean Payton and the Denver Broncos with the 12th overall selection.

Collegiate Career

A former five-star recruit, Nix was a five year starter with a record 61 starts at Auburn and Oregon. During that time, he showed significant improvements and maturity. Nix was a five year starter across his collegiate career posting an impressive 15,352 yards total passing. In his final year at Oregon, he threw for 45 touchdowns and just 3 interceptions while setting the NCAA single-season record for completion percentage 77.4%.

Related: The Broncos used a first round pick on Bo Nix, but how much more room does he have left to grow?

2023 Collegiate Season At Oregon

• Set NCAA single-season record for completion percentage (77.4%)
• Led FBS with school-record 45 passing TDs (3 INTs) and school-record 4,508 passing yards.
• Started all 14 games (54-234-4.3, 6 TDs rushing).
• Third-team Associated Press All-American.
• Pac-12 Conference Offensive Player of the Year.
• Won William V. Campbell Trophy (aka "Academic Heisman").
• Finished third in the voting for the Heisman Trophy.
• Finalist for the Maxwell (nation's top player), Davey O'Brien and Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Awards (each for nation's top QB) and Walter Camp Player of the Year Award.
• Set NCAA record for QB with 61 career starts.

Pro Ready?

Nix displays the athleticism, throwing accuracy, arm talent and presence to succeed as a pro quarterback. In Denver, he will also have the support of offensive mastermind Sean Payton, who can design an offense to feed Nix's skillset and expand the playbook as Nix becomes more comfortable with the pro game.

NFL.com analyst Lance Zierlein observed that Nix is pro ready: "[Nix] can be punctual in getting the ball out at the top of his drop or he can work through progressions and beat defenses with second-reaction plays. He throws with good velocity and puts the ball on the money when throwing on the move. Nix has shown great improvement with his pocket poise. He’s capable of moving the sticks as a scrambler or as part of the running game."

SI NFL Draft analyst Cory Kinnan does not predict instant success for Nix, noting that "he looked good at Oregon because he, for all accounts, is throwing the shortest depth of target of any quarterback in this class or last year's class. Throwing a lot of sticks, throwing a lot of screens, just RPO ripping it. Like that's it. And that's not really translatable to what Sean Payton is going to do offensively. He's not a quarterback I would have taken in the first round. Again, similar to Penix, I had a third round grade on Bo Nix. Not a quarterback I would have taken in the top 15."

Bo Nix Ranked As Top Candidate For Offensive Rookie of The Year

Fanduel has Nix's odds to win the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year in the top 10 of all eligible rookies. Nix is currently set at +2000, meaning a $100 successful bet would return $2000. His odds have him ranked as the 6th best rookie and 4th best rookie quarterback for OPOY honors.

Rookie	Position	Team	Odds To Win Offensive Rookie Of The Year
Caleb Williams	QB	Chicago Bears	+155
Jayden Daniels	QB	Washington Commanders	+600
Marvin Harrison Jr.	WR	Arizona Cardinals	+700
J.J. McCarthy	QB	Minesota Vikings	+1000
Malik Nabers	WR	New York Giants	+1400
Xavier Worthy	WR	Kansas City Chiefs	+2000
Bo Nix	QB	Denver Broncos	+2000
Drake Maye	QB	New England Patriots	+2000
Keon Coleman	WR	Buffalo Bills	+2600

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