Is New England Patriots Top Pick Drake Maye Likely A Draft Bust Or Offensive Rookie of The Year?

Patriots QB Drake Maye was drafted with the third overall pick, but what are his chances for success and odds to win rookie of the year in 2024?

May 11, 2024; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) works out at the New England Patriots rookie camp at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports / Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports

The Patriot's rookie QB Drake Maye has the potential to immediately succeed in New England with new Patriot's offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt guiding his transition. Maye is seen as pro ready with exceptional size at 6'4" 223 pounds, one of the strongest arms of the rookie QB class, a beautiful deep ball, ability to move and avoid the rush, plus the toughness and poise to win in the pros.

Maye's Collegiate Career at North Carolina

Before being drafted by New England with the 3rd overall pick of the 2024 NFL draft, Maye played three years in the ACC at North Carolina, starting the last two full seasons.

in 2023, he led the Tarheels to a 8-5 record under legendary Coach Mack Brown. Maye had a 63.3% completion percentage, threw for 3608 yards with 24 touchdowns and 9 picks. He also added 9 rushing TDs.

One could argue that he was even better in 2022:

• ACC: Player of the Year, Offensive Player of the Year, Rookie of the Year, Offensive Rookie of the Year (joined FSU's Jameis Winston as the only players to win all four awards in the same season).
• First-team All-ACC.
• Ranked top five in the FBS with 4,321 passing yards (342-517-66.2) and 38 passing TDs (7 INTs).
• Won Shaun Alexander Award (top freshman in the nation) and was finalist for the Manning Award (nation's top QB).
• Led the team with 698 rushing yards (184 carries, 3.8 per, 7 TDs).
• Started all 14 games
  

Maye's Transition to the New England Offense

Having Van Pelt as his offensive coordinator is a significant advantage for Maye. But New England is rebuilding and lacks overall talent across the board to win more then 5 games in the competitive AFC East.

The Patriot's plan is to ease their rookie quarterback into action. In the offseason, knowing that New England was selecting high enough to draft a top QB, the team signed the ultimate bridge quarterback and teammate in Jacoby Brissett. Entering OTAs, the Patriots are taking some pressure off Maye by hosting a QB competition, with the seasoned Brissett given the early advantage. Van Pelt will seek to guide Maye, who should move into a starting role sooner rather than later.

SI's NFL draft analyst Cory Kinnan believes that Maye will be a success with New England: "Assuming Alex Van Pelt does some of the same stuff that Kevin Stefanski did in Cleveland as the offensive coordinator for the past four seasons, look at what Joe Flacco did in Cleveland down the field off of play-action, off of different run action looks that they were able to manipulate defenses because they have a diverse run game, those sorts of things. That might be a pretty darn good fit for Drake Maye if you think about it. I also do think he's a darn good athlete to make plays at his feet as well."

Patriot's rookie head coach Jarod Mayo has praise for how Maye has approached the New England quarterback room, saying this about his new franchise quarterback:

"That sponge mentality has really stuck out. When you go on those interviews, they’re told to act like they have all the answers. That’s not him. He understands the dynamic of the room. He’s been listening, absorbing.”

- Pat's Coach Mayo via SI's Albert Breer

Read More: Patriots took the best QB in the 2024 NFL Draft in Drake Maye

Maye Ranked At The Top for Offensive Rookie of The Year

Fanduel has Maye's odds to win the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year in the top 10 of all eligible rookies. He is currently set at +2000, meaning a $100 successful bet would return $2000. His odds have him ranked as the 6th best rookie and 4th best rookie quarterback to win OROY.

If New England's offensive line can protect their QB and provide a constant running game, expect Maye to become a starter early in 2024. But New England's overall lack of talent will likely mean a mediocre year for Maye and another poor win-loss record for the Patriots.

Rookie	Position	Team	Odds To Win Offensive Rookie Of The Year
Caleb Williams	QB	Chicago Bears	+170
Jayden Daniels	QB	Washington Commanders	+600
Marvin Harrison Jr.	WR	Arizona Cardinals	+700
J.J. McCarthy	QB	Minesota Vikings	+1400
Malik Nabers	WR	New York Giants	+1400
Xavier Worthy	WR	Kansas City Chiefs	+2000
Bo Nix	QB	Denver Broncos	+2000
Drake Maye	QB	New England Patriots	+2000
Keon Coleman	WR	Buffalo Bills	+2500

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