NFL Draft: What to watch for when scouting running backs

Cory Kinnan | May 14, 2024

Sep 18, 2023; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Cleveland Browns running back Nick Chubb (24) warms up / Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

NFL Draft: What to watch for when scouting running backs

1. Discussing the NFL Draft positional value of a running back
2. The death of the NFL bellcow back
3. Trend toward a passing league contributes to the lack of bellcows
4. Building the ideal running back by committee
5. A running back's main responsibility is to force defenses into a personnel game
6. What to look for from a running back in pass protection
7. Vision is a non-negotiable when evaluating NFL Draft eligible running backs
8. Making defenders miss is another non-negotiable
9. Simply running through defenders is not a sustainable way to win at the NFL level
10. The importance of sheer speed when evaluating running backs

The 2024 NFL Draft is in the rearview mirror, so this allows us to broaden the conversation a bit heading into the offseason.

One aspect that the Daft on Draft Podcast is trying to present is a larger, over-arching conversation about what to look for when scouting different positions around the football field. In the latest episode of the podcast (full audio can be found on Apple Podcasts and Spotify), the running back position was the main topic.

Let's keep the Daft on Draft Pod scouting series going!

Joining me to discuss what to watch for when scouting running backs is ESPN's @Jordan_Reid!

Jordan is a well of knowledge, so this was a fun one. Enjoy!

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— Cory (@fakecorykinnan) May 14, 2024

Joined by ESPN's Jordan Reid, the topic of running backs and how to evaluate them as they head toward the NFL Draft was the main topic of conversation. Here are the major talking points:

Discussing the NFL Draft positional value of a running back

Reid: "It really just depends on the general manager, honestly. There's a case-by-case basis with running backs, and there's going to be some GMs that value them highly, while there are others that value them more so on Day 2 or Day 3. And I think we've had great examples of that in the past few drafts.

Last year, we saw Jahmyr Gibbs, as well as Bijan Robinson both go inside the top 12. And we know with Atlanta and Terry Fontenot, he doesn't really care what other people's boards look like from a media standpoint, even around the league. They have players that they like, and they get fixated on those players, no matter what the position is. We saw it this year with them taking the quarterback with Penix at eight, which I thought was the shock of the draft. And then last year, taking Bijon Robertson inside of the top 10. So it really is a case-by-case basis with these general managers.

But me personally, I don't value the position as highly just because we've seen it be a plug and play position, whether it's Day 2 or Day 3. Breece Hall, him being an early second round selection, and then Isaiah Pacheco was a seventh round pick with the Kansas City Chiefs; we saw both of those guys go on to have a lot of success with their teams... But me personally, I think it's more so of a day two or day three position."

The death of the NFL bellcow back

"[We have seen] the death of the bellcow, the days of an Adrian Peterson. I mean, there are some exceptions. Yeah, Nick Chubb had 300 carries in 2022. Derek Henry has gone over 300 carries multiple times in his career. But if we go back to 2012, which I feel like is the last time we really saw running backs go high. Yes, Saquon Barkley went in 2018, but that was an outlier historically, even surrounding the years prior and the years after.

But 2012, I would say the Trent Richardson draft where he went third overall. In 2012, there were 10 backs with over 275 carries, and in 2023, there was one. So teams are going more toward running back by committee. Again, there are some exceptions. You put Christian McCaffrey on the field because you have a Christian McCaffrey. You put Derrick Henry on the field because you have Derrick Henry. Nick Chubb would have been in that category had he not blown his knee out in Week 2. But going more towards that committee approach, that affects the way we look at running back is coming into the NFL as well."

Trend toward a passing league contributes to the lack of bellcows

Reid: "The passing game is such is so crucial now just because the league., I think is you're probably what having a 65/35 split as far as your pass:run ratio for some teams now. I think it's even that high for a lot of teams now just because you have to be able to throw the football now. Long gone are the days of what I like to call just suffocating or bleeding the clock to where you're just giving the ball to a a guy 30-35 plus times a game. Offenses are way too explosive now to where they can collect points and bunches now as opposed to you having 9-10 minute drives and you're giving this running back all these carries.

Teams want to be explosive now just because the worst position that you can be in is you get down 14-20 points in a game, and you only have a run-first offense. You're just not going to be explosive enough to sustain or come back in games. So teams want to be able to be explosive offensively. And that's just the way the NFL is trending now. Quarterbacks are becoming better. We've seen an influx of wide receivers. And that's a credit to 7-on-7 being such a crucial part to guys as a youth, whether it's in middle school, high school or even college now. So it's a passing league now for sure."

Building the ideal running back by committee

Reid: "It's kind of like building a wide receiver core, right?... You still need that big bellcow type of guy, just because you want to have somebody that can run in between the tackles and that can take that pounding. But you want to have that change up type of player, too. That's really your shorter, your shifty type of guy that you can create those advantageous mismatches. And then that third guy, it really just depends on what you want. You can have a best of both worlds. You can have a certain type or you can have another banger in between the tackles.

And I think this is something that the Dallas Cowboys found out last year just because when they went away from Ezekiel Elliott and thought Tony Pollard could be that 1A type of player, he turned out to not be what they thought he could be as far as being that high-end starter. And I thought he was always at his best when he had 12-15 carries a game. But you really mix those up, whether it was screen passes out of the backfield, jet sweeps, using them in different ways out of the slot and then also giving them carries out of the backfield. I thought they miscalculated exactly what he could be as far as a player that he could get 25-30 touches in games because it just wasn't going to last because he's not a super big guy."

A running back's main responsibility is to force defenses into a personnel game

Reid: "It's just a personnel game, honestly, when you're talking about creating mismatches. And the film that I love to go back to every week when I'm watching this NFL film throughout the week or throughout the year, I would say is Mike McDaniel and Kyle Shanahan. They're two of my favorites just because they're so good with toying with defensive personnel.

And basically how it works is coming out of the huddle, you have your assists in the box or on the sideline. They're calling out the personnel. You see them holding up the big cards sometimes in college with the number of personnel on it. And something that I love that McDaniels does is that he'll come out and double all personnel. So no running backs, no tight ends, but five receivers. And one of those receivers could be Devon Achane. And he'll start off with Devon Achane split out wide and then he'll motion them to the backfield. So defenses have six defensive backs on the field, but I bring Devon Achane back into the backfield. Now I have four guys on the perimeter and I have my one back, one running back in the backfield.

There are so many possibilities that you can do with that. And then I can run the ball now in between the tackles if I have six defensive backs on the field. We both know a lot of times in the NFL, a lot of defensive backs, especially those nickel guys, they don't like to tackle. So now I have an advantageous matchup created. So that's just a prime example of some of those mismatches that you can create with those running backs that not only can play from the backfield but also can split out wide as well. We see it a lot with Christian McCaffrey too, but that's just one thing that I really look for."

What to look for from a running back in pass protection

Reid: "You just have to be willing. I think that's the one trait that you have to look for in running backs. Is he physical? Does he stand in there, run his feet on contact? Or is he completely moving out the way? Or is he just trying to cut block everybody? That's something that you see a lot in college of where these guys will really just throw their helmet at guys knees and just try to cut block them every single time.

And I think that's something that's really hard to gauge with college running backs just because these coaches are not spending a lot of time on pass protection. And even though it's super crucial for them in the NFL, they're not really taught the details and the nuances of pass protection until they get to the league just because they're so involved in the passing game. They're not really taught those details of how to actually run their feet on contact. Where do I place my hands when somebody's running full speed at me? But the one thing you can look for is whether they are they physical enough and do they have enough courage to stand in there and run their feet on contact.

Just because if they have that baseline trait, then I can coach up everything around that part of it once they get to the NFL. So number one, just look to see if they're willing. Then also, do they understand where they fit in in their pass protection assignments?"

Vision is a non-negotiable when evaluating NFL Draft eligible running backs

Reid: "It is the one area where you cannot teach a running back. This is a God-given trait. It's something that you are naturally born with. It's something that you have to have.

And as a coach, I actually use the coach running backs and just seeing the different variances of vision and how you can lead a running back to a certain area or you can show him what to look at, but you can't create those instant reactions of what happened once you lead him to those areas... So I can lead you to those areas, but once that moment happens, it's completely up to you as far as that vision that you have. You have to have that instant short area burst or that instant decision making to really determine what you're going to do next.

So vision not only is first level, it's second and third level as well. So once you get through that first A-gap, what happens after that. You have to be able to read those play side linebackers as far as what they're doing, how they're flowing over the top, who's climbing up to those linebackers. And I have to be able to read the back of my offensive lineman as well. Is he blocking them backside or is he blocking them plate side? I have to be able to cut off of that.

And then when you get to the third level, you have what I like to call green grass rule. Sometimes you have a lot of running backs that have a lot of high school in them, and they try to race to the sideline as fast as they can just because they feel as if they can outrun everybody. But other times you have a lot of running backs that stick to those green grass principles and they run to the open field. But I think what separates those good to those great running backs with vision is those guys that create on the third level."

Making defenders miss is another non-negotiable

Reid: "This is another non-negotiable for me just because everything's not going to be blocked up perfectly in the NFL, and you have to be able to make guys miss. Kareem Hunt was a great example of this coming out of Toledo... with Kareem Hunt, his A-plus trait was his contact balance. And everybody wondered, like, is this going to translate to the NFL? I was like, yeah if you can make guys miss and you can fend guys off, that's something that's going to translate to the next level. So Kareem Hunt was one guy that really taught me that and why I included it now, why I value it so highly with running backs.

But on the opposite end of the spectrum, one guy I really learned a lot from... was Pooka Williams when he was coming out of Kansas. And if you remember Pooka, Pooka could not, when things were not blocked up cleanly on the first level, he could not make guys miss. But if things were blocked up cleanly, he looked amazing on the second and third level while making guys miss. So you have to be able to make those guys miss on the first level just because there's going to be some guys that, you know, make a quick swim move on your center, and he completely whiffs.

If you're not able to make that nose tackle or that one technique miss in those short area spaces, then you're probably not going to be very good on the next level. Just because you're not going to have what I like to call clean air yards, just because with those clean air yards, you see those areas that are blocked really cleanly or you have clean segways to the second or the third level. It's not always going to be like that in between the tackles in the NFL."

Simply running through defenders is not a sustainable way to win at the NFL level

Reid: "The contact balance and the broken tackle stuff is good, but when you're talking about NFL guys, they're going to be bigger, faster, and stronger. So you're going to get a lot of guys that can create those solo tackles, and you're not going to be able to bounce off of everybody and be what I like to call a bumper car. That's just not sustainable in the NFL.

That's why I liked more so guys like Trey Benson. Trey Benson was my top-ranked running back in this draft, just because he not only has the contact balance, like an Audric Estime of where he can be a bumper car, but he can break you down and make you miss in a phone booth as well. He has that ability to stay on track, even when those cloudy looks present itself to him. So you can't just be a bumper car all the time, just because it's not going to be sustainable. You have to be able to make those guys miss in tidy areas, but also when you get in the open field as well."

The importance of sheer speed when evaluating running backs

Reid: "I mean, just look at Jahmyr Gibbs. He had the ability to detach from what would be tackles, is what I like to call it. You see a lot of guys get in the open field and they have these long runs, but they don't have that second nitro or turbo button in order to detach from players in the open field.

Yeah, long runs are nice. I love explosive plays, but it's just different when you can get guys that can finish with six points in the end zone, just because it's something that just, it's a death blow to defenses, man. It not only wears down on them, but it's just nothing that they can do in the open field. And wow, those 30 or 40 big runs are nice. If you have that guy that can turn them to 60, 70 70-yard gains in an instant, it's just a game changer. And I think Jahmyr Gibbs is a great example of that, and that's why the Lions really value him a lot.

And I think that's going to be a big difference in this running back class that we have coming up as well. And I've watched a couple of guys already. I've seen one that has that instant turbo button but also has that ability to detach in the open field. And that one guy is Jaden Ott from California. I'm not sure if you watched him. He has that instant turbo button as opposed to some other guys like Quinshon Judkins... He has that initial turbo button, but he doesn't have that second turbo button when he is out in the open field."