2023 NFL Draft: AFC West Rookie Projections

Kansas City looks to continue their dominance in the AFC West as they seek their eighth consecutive division title.

Our ‘Rookie Impact’ series rolls on, as we head out west where the world champion Kansas City Chiefs reside and the home to the 2023 NFL Draft! There are several organizations trending in opposite directions as we enter the OTA portion of the league calendar. Let’s see how the recent NFL Draft will help shape up the AFC West race.

Since the arrival of Andy Reid in 2013, the Chiefs have averaged 12 wins per season over the last decade. The stability he has brought cannot be understated, especially when you consider that there seems to be a new head coach within the division annually. Kansas City looks to remain the king of the mountain. Another all-time great from the coaching ranks joins the fray, as Sean Payton takes on the task of turning around one of the most storied franchises in NFL history, the Denver Broncos. Can he resurrect the career of Russell Wilson? The result of that question will coincide with the team’s success.

Meanwhile, Josh McDaniel continues to search for his first winning season as a head coach. He enlisted a familiar face during the offseason in Jimmy Garoppolo to help the Las Vegas Raiders get off the snide. However, there is plenty of work to be done in a highly competitive conference. Alas, the brainchild of Brandon Staley enters year number three in Los Angeles. The Chargers have one of the emerging young stars of the NFL in Justin Herbert but in-game management has haunted them. Ironically, each team scored nearly identical overall rookie impact ratings!

Below is a breakdown of how each selection of the 2023 NFL Draft fits in with their new teams for the AFC West, plus projections on how they might perform in year one. For year-round coverage of the NFL Draft, be sure to subscribe to our All Access Football Newsletter.

PREVIOUS IMPACT PROJECTIONS: AFC East | AFC North | AFC South | Up Next: AFC West

Player Rating Impact Scale: 10 – 9.5 = All Pro Impact | 9.4 – 8.9 = Pro Bowl Impact | 8.8 – 8.0 = Starter Impact | 7.9 – 7.0 = Rotational Impact | 6.9 – 6.0 = Backup Impact | 5.9 – Below = Practice Squad Impact

DENVER BRONCOS [OVERALL ROOKIE IMPACT RATING = 69]

Rd2.No.63 Marvin Mims, WR, Oklahoma: A puzzling selection, considering Denver was stocked at wideout, they waited two rounds to make their first selection and only had five picks total. That said, Mims is a tantalizing slot weapon. Projection: 26 catches, 372 receiving yards, three touchdowns. Impact Factor: 6.8

Rd3.No.67 Drew Sanders, LB, Arkansas: Team brass has stated that Sanders will begin his pro career as an inside linebacker but they could eventually look to use him in a similar role such as how Micah Parsons is utilized in Dallas. Projection: 17 games, 12 starts, 65 tackles, two and a half sacks, four tackles for loss. Impact Factor: 7.3

Rd3.No.83 Riley Moss, CB, Iowa: This felt like a need that should have been addressed much earlier. However, the Broncos landed themselves a gem when Moss fell into their laps. Projection: 17 games, 11 starts, 35 tackles, one interception, six pass deflections. Impact Factor: 7.4

Rd6.No.183 JL Skinner, FS, Boise State: A long defensive back capable of sliding into either safety role, Skinner has proven to stick his nose in the dirt against the run and also has some ball-skills that result in interceptions. Projection: 13 games played, 22 tackles, two interceptions, four pass deflections. Impact Factor: 6.8

Rd7.No.257 Alex Forsyth, C, Oregon: Again, with such few selections available at their disposal, Forsyth was someone who could have likely been available after the draft to compete for a backup role. Projection: six games played. Impact Factor: 6.3

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS [OVERALL ROOKIE IMPACT RATING = 69]

Rd1.No.31 Felix Anudike-Uzomah, DE, Kansas State: The hometown hero gets a shot to contribute to the champs, as Kansas City builds their pass-rush depth. Projection: 15 games played, five starts, 18 tackles, three and a half sacks, five tackles for loss. Impact Factor: 7.0

Rd2.No.55 Rashee Rice, WR, SMU: The Chiefs present plenty of speed within their wide receiver unit, now they add an alley-oop partner in Rice who can go up and get it. Projection: 14 games played, two starts, 20 catches, 240 receiving yards, one touchdown. Impact Factor: 6.8

Rd3.No.92 Wanya Morris, OT, Oklahoma: A well-coached up player who lacks ideal size, Morris will likely be cross-trained to become a backup swingman tackle, an extremely valuable role. Projection: 17 games played, three starts. Impact Factor: 7.1

Rd4.No.119 Chamarri Conner, CB, Virginia Tech: A nickelback who shows up around the football, Conner displays excellent instincts, ball-skills and willingness to step up against the run. Projection: 15 games played, 33 tackles, two tackles for loss. Impact Factor: 6.8

Rd5.No.166 BJ Thompson, OLB, Stephen F. Austin: A low risk, high reward selection, Thompson oozes raw pass-rush potential but has struggled to stay healthy; he flashed at the East-West Shrine Bowl as one of the top prospects in attendance. Projection: eight games played, 10 tackles, two and a half sacks, four tackles for loss. Impact Factor: 6.8

Rd6.No.194 Keondre Coburn, DT, Texas: It will be a highly competitive defensive line room come training camp; Coburn will likely begin on the practice squad. Projection: six games played, five tackles. Impact Factor: 6.2

Rd7.No.250 Nic Jones, CB, Ball State: The Chiefs have done very well in identifying later round and UDFA cornerbacks, so don’t count out Jones but special teams would seem to be in his near future. Projection: seven games played. Impact Factor: 6.0

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS [OVERALL ROOKIE IMPACT RATING = 69]

Rd1.No.7. Tyree Wilson, DE, Texas Tech: Las Vegas has bungled their first round selections in recent drafts and the logic was there to select Wilson, as Chandler Jones was a disappointment last year opposite of Max Crosby. However, one has to wonder how they bypassed the cornerback position, in order to select an injured player. Projection: nine games played, four starts, 27 tackles, five sacks, eight tackles for loss. Impact Factor: 7.0

Rd2.No.35 Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame: Look for the Raiders to implement plenty of multi-set tight end packages with the addition of Mayer. He joins a trio that also includes Austin Hooper and OJ Howard. Projection: 17 games played, 13 starts, 42 catches, 510 receiving yards, five touchdowns. Impact Factor: 7.8

Rd3.No.70 Byron Young, DT, Alabama: Beefing up the defensive front was clearly a priority within the organization and Young helps to strengthen the depth. Projection: 13 games played, 22 tackles, one sacks, two tackles for loss. Impact Factor: 6.6

Rd3.No.100 Tre Tucker, WR, Cincinnati: There were many other needs to address on Day Two. With Hunter Renfrow, Phillip Dorsett and Keelan Cole already on the roster behind starters Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers, reps will be limited. Tucker becomes their deep threat. Projection: 17 games played, 15 catches, 258 receiving yards, two touchdowns. Impact Factor: 6.7

Rd.4No.104 Jakorian Bennett, CB, Maryland: The team finally landed a corner on Day Three and found a good one in Bennett who brings an aggressive nature, with the ability to stick just about anyone step-for-step. Projection: 17 games played, five starts, two interceptions, six pass deflections. Impact Factor: 6.9

Rd4.No.135 Aidan O’Connell, QB, Purdue: Entering his tenth year, starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo has started an entire season just once in his career. When O’Connell hears his name called, the moment won’t be too big for him. He brings vast experience and could be this year’s Brock Purdy. Projection: eight games played, six starts, 115 completions, 208 attempts, 1,308 passing yards, 10 touchdowns, eight interceptions. Impact Factor: 7.5

Rd5.No.170 Christopher Smith II, SS, Georgia: An undersized, yet ferocious safety, Smith II can line up in the box and can hold his own in coverage; don’t be surprised to see him move up the depth chart rapidly. Projection: 15 games played, four starts, 36 tackles, three tackles for loss, one sack, one interception, four pass deflections. Impact Factor: 6.9

Rd6.No.203 Amari Burney, LB, Florida: It might be difficult for Burney to crack the linebacker rotation in year one but he should contribute on special teams. Projection: five games played. Impact Factor: 6.1

Rd7.No.231 Nesta Jade Silvera, DT, Arizona State: Another player who may need to spend a year developing on the practice squad, Silvera has flashed in spurts. Projection: five games played. Impact Factor: 6.1

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS [OVERALL ROOKIE IMPACT RATING = 68]

Rd1.No.21 Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU: We haven’t seen a frontcourt like Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Johnston since Bird, Parish and McHale. It will be fun to watch the ball distribution. Projection: 38 catches, 444 receiving yards, two touchdowns. Impact Factor: 7.2

Rd2.No.54 Tuli Tuipulotu, DL, USC: This will be a peculiar fit, as Tuipulotu projects as a standup outside linebacker in the Chargers defensive scheme. After weighing close to 300 pounds at one point and playing defensive line, this could take time to transition. Projection: 12 games played, 25 tackles, two and half sacks, four tackles for loss. Impact Factor: 6.8

Rd3.No.85 Daiyan Henley, ILB, Washington State: Possibly one of the best value picks of the draft, Henley could be a long-term fixture for years to come; he flies to the football and covers a lot of ground. Projection: 17 games played, six starts, 52 tackles, three tackles for loss. Impact Factor: 7.1

Rd4.No.125 Derius Davis, WR, TCU: With Joshua Palmer firmly entrenched on the roster, Davis will compete for the final wideout spot as the speedy deep threat but will have to earn his keep on special teams first. Projection: primary return man. Impact Factor: 6.9

Rd5.No.156 Jordan McFadden, OG, Clemson: The experienced McFadden brings pedigree, experience and versatility. He could back up an array of spots at tackle or guard. Projection: 17 games played, two starts. Impact Factor: 6.8

Rd6.No.200 Scott Matlock, DT, Boise State: Mark this down as one of the biggest steals of the entire draft class. Don’t be surprised to see Matlock emerge as an impact two down player and possibly even steal a starting gig. Projection: 17 games played, nine starts, 38 tackles, two sacks, five tackles for loss. Impact Factor: 7.0

Rd7.No.239 Max Duggan, QB, TCU: Current backup Easton Stick enters the final year of his contract, so Duggan could be groomed to be the next in line for that role—he is a true gamer no doubt about it. Projection: practice squad. Impact Factor: 6.0

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