Spencer Rattler a better value pick than J.J. McCarthy in the 2024 NFL Draft

Would you rather trade multiple first round picks for J.J. McCarthy or simply select Spencer Rattler one round later in the 2024 NFL Draft?

Oct 21, 2023; Columbia, Missouri, USA; South Carolina Gamecocks quarterback Spencer Rattler (7) / Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

The buzz will not stop surrounding Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy, but are we sure he us better than South Carolina's Spencer Rattler, a player set to fall a round or two further down the board in the 2024 NFL Draft?

As quarterbacks are expected to fly off the board next week, there is expected to be interest from teams like the New York Giants and the Minnesota Vikings to potentially trade up for the Wolverine quarterback. After leading Michigan to a national championship and losing just one game as the starting quarterback, the intangibles of McCarthy have been touted as the primary reason for his rise up draft boards.

However, when looking at his actual ability as a passer, McCarthy quickly becomes one of the riskiest selections in the entire 2024 NFL Draft. When charting his throws, McCarthy was on-target on just 38 percent of his deep shots as he went just 8-of-21 in those opportunities. This was by far the worst in the class.

While he is stellar when he is able to be a pure dropback thrower on schedule, hitting on a massive 77 percent of his throws over the middle of the field, his presence in the pocket crumbles the moment he feels pressure. This does not even dive into his inability to throw with touch when asked to layer the football over second-level defenders and along the boundary. McCarthy is a fastball-only thrower.

He is only 20 years old and has the ability to develop his skills when facing pressure, and he certainly has the arm strength to thrive. However, what about his profile has launched him as a potential top-10 pick in the draft?

In fact, there is another quarterback in this class that has an equivalent level of arm talent, the ability to throw with more touch and from more arm slots, and has proven to be more accurate with the football who is 69 slots lower on Wide Left's Industry Consensus Big Board. While he is three years older, South Carolina's Spencer Rattler has proven worthy to be in the same tier of rankings as McCarthy and could be had a round or two later in the 2024 NFL Draft.

When using the same charting metrics, Rattler was on-target on 68 percent of his throws of 25 yards or more in depth. This was the best in the class, even when placed among the likes of Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, and Jayden Daniels. There is not a throw on the field that Rattler cannot make.

And while his sack numbers are something that must improve, the percentage of pressures that the quarterback shared responsibility in generating was identical to that of McCarthy (according to PFF). Rattler also had a lower Turnover Worthy Play percentage than McCarthy as well.

The major difference between McCarthy and Rattler remains the offensive line they played behind and the weapons around them. While McCarthy played behind a top-five offensive line in college football, Rattler played behind perhaps the worst Power Five offensive line in the nation while throwing to exclusively probable top-100 pick Xavier Leggette. McCarthy had the best rushing attack in the nation to lean on while throwing to the likes of tight end Colston Loveland (who will be a top tight end in next year's draft), Donovan Edwards out of the backfield, a potential second rounder in Roman Wilson, and another draftable wide receiver in Cornelius Johnson.

There is a real case to be made that Michigan still would have won the national championship with Rattler under center while South Carolina still would have only won five games with McCarthy as their quarterback.

With similar tools, is it more prudent to draft McCarthy in the top-10 after exhausting multiple first round picks to get there or to simply select Rattler with a Day 2 pick?