Is Caleb Williams Losing His Grip on the No. 1 Overall Pick?

Back-to-back losses, both with forgettable performances, might be closing the gap between Williams and the rest of the field.

Heading into the 2023 college football season, USC quarterback Caleb Williams was one of the most hyped-up NFL Draft prospects in recent memory, if not ever.

The defending Heisman Trophy winner, Williams would have been the slam-dunk No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, had he been eligible. Instead, he'd have the opportunity to put together another incredible season at the college level before being the consensus top selection in next year's draft.

Despite the lofty preseason expectations, Williams lived up to the hype for the first month of the season, putting up even better numbers than he did last year, charging full speed ahead toward joining Archie Griffin as the only other two-time Heisman winner in history.

Then came back-to-back losses to Notre Dame and Utah, both with forgettable performances from Williams. He threw for just 199 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions in a blowout loss to the Fighting Irish:

CALEB WILLIAMS THROWS HIS 3RD INT OF THE FIRST HALF 🤯

(via @NDFootball)
pic.twitter.com/3rvf0PfSX9

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) October 15, 2023

The Utes beat him and the Trojans for the third straight time Saturday night, holding him to 256 yards through the air, and a rushing touchdown as his only score of the game.

Beyond the paltry box scores lurk more concerning issues for NFL teams who might be clamoring to land next year's No. 1 overall pick with the intent to select Williams.

When he's given plenty of time in the pocket, or when he's able to escape and create outside of the pocket, Williams has been nothing short of a constant highlight reel full of Patrick Mahomes-esque moments. But when he's not able to do those things, Williams has looked downright human when forced to win consistently from the pocket with quick progressions.

That doesn't bode well for most teams that would be picking at the top of the draft, considering they're not likely to have the best offensive line in front of Williams.

Throw in the fact that Williams has consistently struggled against top competition, instead racking up most of his production against unranked teams, and NFL scouts might have legitimate concerns about his ability to perform consistently at a high level against pro talent:

Pretty wild stats showing Caleb Williams struggles against Top-Tier Talent. #USC pic.twitter.com/6AGk9p2Nwb

— Blitzburgh (@Blitz_Burgh) October 22, 2023

At his best, Williams still looks like a potentially generational talent at the game's most important position. He still makes eye-popping plays that are sure to have scouts salivating in the film room.

But after the last two games, and considering his track record against his toughest opponents, it's worth wondering whether or not the gap between Williams and the rest of the 2024 draft class (North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye, in particular) might be closing.