Fantasy Football Mailbag: Projecting The 2022 And 2023 Draft Classes

Answering any fantasy football questions each week.

Skip Newton | Sep 5, 2021

Fantasy Football Mailbag: Projecting The 2022 And 2023 Draft Classes /

Get your fantasy football questions in each week!

Now that the college season is underway, every week will feature a mailbag article where readers can ask their devy questions. Send a tweet to @skipnewton31 to add your question to a future article!

Does playing devy help you in non-devy leagues? - Kane Fossell (@Devy_Kane)

Playing in a devy league is not likely to help managers in redraft leagues, but it is an advantage in dynasty. Managers will be more successful when they have as much information as possible. Non-devy fantasy players often start their rookie analysis in the months leading up to the NFL Draft. There is a good chance they never watched any of the prospects play in a college game, so they rank rookies on draft capital, landing spot and highlights.

Those that play devy will be familiar with players before they enter the NFL Draft. The managers pay close attention to the top prospects while watching college football, which gives them an advantage. They can rank these players during the college season and adjust their rankings after the draft. They also have a more profound knowledge of players that fall to the later rounds in rookie drafts. While non-devy players will select players based on average draft position alone, devy managers know the better prospects and make more informed decisions.

The one aspect of playing devy that players need to be cautious of is take-lock. It is natural to form opinions and hold on to that position because managers want to be right about a player. Being inflexible on prospect analysis can be dangerous and will negate the advantage of playing devy. When a highly-ranked prospect falls in the NFL Draft, he needs to drop in rookie rankings. Draft capital still matters. He can be a late-round sleeper but do not draft him high based solely on pre-draft rankings.

Which position group is the best and worst for the current projected 2022 and 2023 draft classes? - DFF Draft Director (@chrismiles1017)

The best 2022 draft position group is wide receiver. The latest 2022 NFL Mock Draft Monday article has four wide receivers selected in each of the first two rounds. Ainias Smith, Garrett Wilson (Ohio State), Chris Olave (Ohio State) and Treylon Burks (Arkansas) are forecasted to go with the first 19 picks. Smith, from Texas A&M, is the biggest surprise, but the trend of recent drafts suggests that NFL teams value more diminutive, dynamic receivers than they have historically. Nobody is surprised to see Wilson, Olave and Burks go in round one, as they have been at the top of devy analysts’ lists for a year. First-round draft capital will result in all three being locks as first-round picks in dynasty league rookie drafts.

The four prospects selected in the second round are USC’s Drake London, Georgia’s George Pickens, Alabama’s John Metchie and Zay Flowers from Boston College. At 6’5, London has the potential to be a red-zone favorite for whoever drafts him. Pickens will miss the 2021 season due to an injury, which could cost him a chance at moving up to the first round if he can not work out at the NFL Combine or Georgia’s Pro Day. John Metchie had a breakout season for Alabama in 2020 and returns as the most experienced pass-catcher on a talented roster. Zay Flowers also broke out in 2020 for Boston College. Like Smith, Flowers is an undersized, explosive receiver who can take the top off a defense with his speed.

The 2020 running back class was outstanding! 2021 was top-heavy, with only a few runners going on days one and two. 2022 will be similar to the most recent draft. Iowa State’s Breece Hall and Kyren Williams from Notre Dame are the only two backs selected in the first two rounds of the mock. Isaiah Spiller from Texas A&M and Oklahoma’s Eric Gray have enough talent to double the number to four, but it is still a down year for runners. Fantasy managers will need to wait until 2023 for another good running back class.

Managers who choose to wait to get their running back will be glad they did. 2023 looks fantastic with several studs and more top-rated runners who could join the stud list with a breakout season. Texas’s Bijan Robinson, Georgia Tech’s Jahmyr Gibbs and Tank Bigsby from Auburn lived up to their high recruiting ratings in their freshman seasons. All three are destined for high draft capital and have traits that translate to the next level.

A group of talented runners is primed to move up devy rankings with good 2021 seasons. Zachary Evans from TCU, Kendall Milton from Georgia, South Carolina’s MarShawn Lloyd and Florida back Demarkcus Bowman all have the talent to play in the NFL. Evans showed some promise, with 415 yards and four touchdowns on 54 attempts. Milton is stuck behind Bulldog teammate Zamir White but should see an uptick in touches from the 36 he had a season ago. MarShawn Lloyd is coming off an injury that prevented him from playing last year but is healthy and ready to showcase his skills. Bowman transferred from Clemson to Florida after appearing in two games. He is the most talented Gator runner and should eventually ascend to the top of the depth chart.

Although it is probably too early to tell, 2023 appears to be a down season for wide receivers. Kayshon Boutte is a stud at LSU. TCU’s Quentin Johnson, Marvin Mims at Oklahoma and Pittsburgh’s Jordan Addison had promising freshman seasons. After those four are a handful of prospects that need production to go with their favorable recruiting rankings. Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Julian Fleming from Ohio State, and Jermaine Burton at Georgia are players to watch this season.

The tight end position was not considered in the above analysis because they develop much later than the other positions.

Who are the 2023 draft-eligible sleepers? Go deep! - @PsychWardFF

Quarterback Michael Pratt from Tulane is an intriguing prospect. He completed 55 percent of his passes in his freshman season for 1806 yards, 20 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Pratt also ran for 229 yards and eight scores, displaying good mobility in and out of the pocket. His arm strength is adequate, and he has a nice, accurate touch on passes to all levels. Pratt’s biggest strengths are his pocket presence and toughness. He is not afraid to take a hit and plays hard regardless of the score. Pratt is the type of quarterback that could impress NFL teams if he builds upon a solid freshman campaign.

Another 2023 running back prospect who could vault up draft lists is Pittsburgh’s Israel Abanikanda. He bulked up to 215-pounds, making him the ideal size for a feature back. The second-year rusher is fast, explosive and ready for a breakout season. Now is the time to add him to devy rosters before his value skyrockets!

Mississippi State’s Jaden Walley was a pleasant surprise from last season’s group of freshman receivers. The three-star prospect caught 52 balls for 718 yards and two touchdowns in ten games. Walley, 6’0, 180-pounds, is elusive with the ball in his hands, making him a scoring threat on short and long routes.

The tight end position has more sleeper than top prospects when looking past the next draft. While Notre Dame’s Michael Mayers looked great in his first season, it typically takes a couple of years before the best tight ends establish themselves. One player to watch is Jalin Conyers from Arizona State. The four-star prospect is a high-end athlete who ran in the 4.7s at college camps, according to 247Sports. He’s 6’4, 250-pounds, the ideal size for a tight end in the NFL. Size plus athleticism equals a great sleeper in deep devy leagues.

SKIP NEWTON

Fantasy Football Mailbag: Projecting The 2022 And 2023 Draft Classes

Skip Newton | Sep 5, 2021

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