Fantasy Football: Mailbag Questions Devy Edition

Is Max Johnson legit? Who is the top wide receiver in the class? All your questions answered for the NFL Draft and fantasy football.

Now that the college season is underway, every week will feature a mailbag article where readers can ask their devy questions. Send a tweet to @skipnewton31 to add your question to a future article!

Is Max Johnson a legitimate NFL prospect? - Brandon Lejeune (@DevyDeepDive)

The true sophomore starting quarterback for the high-scoring LSU Tigers offense is quickly moving up the devy rankings. A four-star prospect in 2020, Johnson played six games in his first season and finished with promising results. He completed 58.7 percent of his passes for 1,069 yards, eight touchdowns, and only one interception. In his first four games of 2021, Johnson has dominated opponents and already has more yards (1,143), touchdowns (15), and a higher completion percentage of 64.4 percent.

Many college quarterbacks put up impressive statistics, but few can duplicate their college success to the NFL. Johnson has one advantage over most quarterback prospects because he is the son of former Super Bowl-winning quarterback Brad Johnson. Winning a super bowl requires good decision-making from the quarterback, a trait that Max Johnson displays regularly. He typically makes quick decisions when reading the blitz or searching for his second or third read. Johnson’s ability to read a defense continues to improve as he gains more experience.

He is a reasonably accurate thrower, but there are examples where the second-year starter underthrows pass-catchers on deeper routes. Johnson benefits from playing with highly talented wide receivers who can separate quickly and win contested throws. It is good that he allows his pass-catchers to make plays, but there are times when they turn a poor throw into a completion, thus making Johnson’s statistics look more impressive. 

While Johnson is on pace for an outstanding season and is moving up rankings, the Tigers quarterback does not possess the arm strength to make him a high draft pick. He looks like a day two pick today but has plenty of time to continue his rise up the rankings. The quarterback position is one of the most difficult to predict for devy managers. The number of rookie quarterbacks who develop into reliable starters on a fantasy roster is typically two or three each season. Passing on Johnson and taking a running back or wide receiver is the better option at this time.

How should we handle a devy-depleted rookie draft in 2022? - Britt Sanders (@TheFFSandman)

Fantasy players who are new to devy sometimes make the mistake of undervaluing rookie draft picks. They assume the best players always get taken as devy assets, leaving few rookies for that draft. The number of rookies available is dependent on the number of devy players who can be selected every year. However, several college players will have a break-out season in their final year and skyrocket up draft boards. In 2019, nobody expected Joe Burrow, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and Justin Jefferson to dominate and become first-round draft picks. All were likely available in devy-depleted drafts.

The 2022 draft class is deep at wide receiver. The top guys are likely gone in devy leagues: Treylon Burks, Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson, George Pickens, and David Bell have all been highly-ranked devy players for over a year. Guys will still come out of nowhere, such as Jameson Williams, Romeo Doubs, Ainias Smith, Jahan Dotson, and Wan’Dale Robinson.

The two positions that could produce intriguing rookie picks are quarterback and running back. Several quarterbacks could play themselves into a day one selection that may still be available in devy leagues. Sam Howell, Spencer Rattler, and Kedon Slovis are likely gone, but what about Carson Strong, Matt Corral, and Malik Willis? All three could earn day one draft capital, making them great rookie picks in Superflex and two-quarterback leagues.

While potential top picks Breece Hall and Isaiah Spiller are gone in every devy league, the rest of the 2022 running back class is wide open. Eric Gray, Kyren Williams, Zonovan Knight, and Tyler Allgeier are just four backs who could move up draft boards between now and April. The lack of clarity at quarterback and running back at the top of the draft makes the 2022 rookie draft intriguing in devy leagues.

Why should dynasty players make the jump into devy? - Blake Wilson

The typical progression of fantasy players begins with redraft leagues, add keepers, and eventually a dynasty league. The next logical move is to dip the toes into the devy water. There are several reasons to start playing devy. The first is that it is always fun to try new things. Fantasy football should be entertaining!

Another good reason to try devy is that it forces managers to scout college players. Learning about prospects before they become rookies will assist managers in regular dynasty leagues prepare for their annual rookie drafts. While the other managers are researching rookies for the first time, devy managers will be ahead of their competition. Those managers will also have a more profound knowledge of talented players who fall in the draft and could be late-round sleepers. 

There is an increased level of satisfaction when a player drafted in college eventually becomes a high-scoring player on your fantasy roster. It takes patience to roster a player for over a year while waiting for him to enter the NFL. The longer wait makes success that much sweeter. Finally, in leagues with separate devy and rookie drafts, there is another draft to keep your league more active in the off-season. Active leagues are the ones that managers enjoy the most, leading to a higher likelihood that managers will stay in the league for a more extended period.

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