An Analytic Bent on a Potential Eagles' Super Bowl Win

Aggressiveness, Avonte Maddox and 12 personnel could be the keys to an Eagles win

USA Today

Eagles assistant GM Alec Halaby has been the leader of the organization’s forward-thinking, data-science program for years and there are many numbers thrown at Nick Sirianni and his coaching staff each week in an attempt to gain the slightest advantage in a sport often defined by parity.

The results speak for themselves with the Eagles set to enter Super Bowl LVII at 16-3, an impressive record that gets even better (16-1) when Jalen Hurts is at the controls for Philadelphia.

Three numbers have stood out n the slow buildup up to the big game on Sunday against the Kansas City Chiefs, however, and could be the difference between another Lombardi Trophy or topping out as NFC Champions.

EAGLES ARE FAR MORE AGGRESSIVE

According to NFL's Next Gen Stats, the Eagles and Chiefs are vastly different when it comes to aggressiveness on fourth downs.

Philadelphia pushed the envelope in 21 of 27 instances where the predictive models suggest doing so will increase win probability by at least 1%. Conversely, Andy Reid has been much more cautious in the same scenarios, going for it just seven out of 26 times.

The takeaway is that Sirianni is much more likely to press the issue when there is an opportunity to tilt the game while Reid is going to play it safe.

On the biggest stage, it’s nice to have the sentiment of ‘go win the game’ instead of a ‘let’s not lose it’ philosophy but everything still boils down to execution in big spots.

AVONTE MADDOX MATTERS

Chiefs All-Pro tight end Travis Kelce is one of the best ever to do it and has had another monster season with a career-high 110 receptions for 1,338 yards (his seventh consecutive 1,000-yard campaign and third over 1,300), and another career-best with 12 touchdowns.

Things have hardly slowed down in the playoffs with Kelce amassing over 10 receptions a game (21-176-3) through the divisional round and the Championship Game.

While it will take a village to deal with the younger Kelce brother in the Eagles’ quarters-heavy zone scheme, having slot cornerback Avonte Maddox back in the lineup is very big.

Maddox returned from a turf toe injury in the NFCCG after missing the final two games of the regular season and the divisional round against the New York Giants. He wasn’t needed much against the 49ers after the injury to Brock Purdy turned San Francisco one-dimensional.

That will change against the high-powered Chiefs and Maddox gave the Philadelphia fan base a little scare when he put the walking boot back on while sitting out Friday’s bye-week practice. A team source called the situation precautionary and sure enough, by Saturday, Maddox was out of the boot although still watching practice.

Fast forward to Philadelphia’s walkthrough practice on Wednesday in Arizona and Maddox was listed as limited with a toe/rest designation.

He is expected to play in the Super Bowl and that’s big because when Maddox is on the field, opposing offenses lost -13.9 EPA (Expected Points Added) when targeting the star slot corner season, good for second in the NFL behind only Miami’s Kader Kohou.

Maddox also ranks fourth among slot CBs in defensive stop rate (5.4%) and the difference when he’s on the field vs. Josiah Scott or even when C.J. Gardner-Johnson was put in a hybrid role has been vast.

12 PERSONNEL

As mentioned the Eagles’ lost one game this season when Jalen Hurts was on the field, a 32-21 setback to Washington on Nov. 14, with the outlier being four turnovers and a minus-2 TO differential.

Playing 12 personnel isn’t about the running game vs. the passing game or Jack Stoll instead of Quez Watkins.

In this case, it’s about playing a clean game. According to FootballOutsiders.com, Philadelphia had no turnovers when using 12 personnel all season over the 19-game sample size with the lone near hiccup being an errant Jason Kelce snap that Hurts recovered.

When the Eagles play a clean game they win so upping the 12 personnel numbers only makes sense.

-John McMullen contributes Eagles coverage for SI.com's Eagles Today and is the NFL Insider for JAKIB Media. You can listen to John, alongside legendary sports-talk host Jody McDonald every morning from 8-10 on ‘Birds 365,” streaming live on YouTube. John is also the host of his own show "Football 24/7 and a daily contributor to ESPN South Jersey. You can reach him at jmcmullen44@gmail.com or on Twitter @JFMcMullen