Countdown to Kickoff: Eagles vs. Cowboys

It's starter vs. backup: the sequel as Gardner Minshew steps in for an injured Jalen Hurts in Dallas

The Cowboys are presumably beating themselves up after blowing a 17-point lead in Jacksonville last week.

If Mike McCarthy’s team just sealed the deal, Dallas would have been just two games behind the 13-1 Eagles with three to play and a chance to put real pressure on Philadelphia by holding serve at AT&T Stadium on Saturday (4:25 p.m./FOX).

Instead, the Eagles’ magic number to win the NFC East and the No. 1 seed in the conference is just one, meaning Philadelphia would have to lose out while Dallas would have to win out the rest of the way to flip seeds.

Both teams have already clinched postseason berths.

Right now famed political prediction site FiveThirtyEight.com places the Eagles’ chances of winning the division at 98% and the top seed on the NFC side at 97% while the Cowboys' chances to pull off the miracles are at 2% and 0.8% respectively.

On paper, Saturday’s game should be much more manageable for Dallas because Jalen Hurts was ruled out Thursday with a sprained throwing shoulder he suffered in a win over Chicago last Sunday.

The narrative in Noth Texas is acceptance of the No. 5 seed and the hope of seeing the Eagles for the third time in the postseason.

Back in Week 6, the Eagles topped the Cowboys 26-17 but Dallas backup Cooper Rush was at quarterback for the then-injured Dak Prescott. Now it will be Prescott dueling with Philadelphia backup Gardner Minshew.

HERE IS THE COUNTDOWN TO KICKOFF

5...PLAYERS TO WATCH

Eagles QB Gardner Minshew - Minshew isn’t your average backup. He’s got extensive starting experience with Jacksonville, a career 93.9 passer rating, and an impressive 41 to 12 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He’s not the most gifted QB when it comes to arm talent but Minshew is a fast processor and understands the modern passing game better than most which can be traced back to his time with Mike Leach at Washington State in the Air-Raid offense.

Eagles LB T.J. Edwards - The Eagles had 17 players who were honored as either Pro Bowl selections or alternates this week and if there was a snub it was Edwards who was neither. Arguably the team’s defensive MVP, Edwards has been graded as the third-best off-ball LB in the NFL and already has a chip on his shoulder from going undrafted despite a stellar college career at Wisconsin. Edwards may be extra motivated this week.

Cowboys LB Micah Parsons - Parsons is not only the most reviled athlete in Philadelphia for his recent “disrespect” of Hurts on Von Miller’s podcast, but he’s also the most feared, at last to the locals who understand he is perhaps the NFL’s foremost game wrecker. Nick Sirianni is aware of that and noted back in Week 6 that if you can’t block Parsons, the goal should be to read him and put him in conflict.

That was much easier with Hurts on the field as one of the best RPO/zone-read QBs in football. Now it becomes you better block Parsons and the Eagles are one of the few teams who can possibly pull that off with an offensive line with three Pro Bowl selections and two alternates.

Cowboys RB Tony Pollard - Ezekiel Elliott has the name but Pollard is the best back in Dallas right now, making his first Pro Bowl next to former Penn State teammates Saquon Barkley and the Eagles’ Miles Sanders. Pollard is very explosive and can hurt you in both the running game and the passing game. He’s currently just 31 yards shy of 1,000 on the ground with 969.

Cowboys RT Tyron Smith - A potential Hall of Fame left tackle Smith missed most of the season with a bad hamstring injury. He was activated off injured reserve for the loss in Jacksonville and played right tackle because the usual starter, Terence Steele, was lost for the season with a torn ACL. 

Meanwhile, rookie first-round pick Tyler Smith has held up at LT in Tyron’s absence so the thought was the veteran was better equipped to move. Former Eagles’ star LT Jason Peters may also give Tyron Smith a breather or two at times as the latter works to build up his conditioning. The entire situation is something to keep an eye on because the Eagles lead the NFL with 55 sacks.

4...MATCHUPS TO WATCH

Gardner Minshew vs. Trevon Diggs - Minshew generally takes care of the football but Diggs is perhaps the top playmaking cornerback in the NFL with 17 career interceptions in just 42 games. Four of those INTs have come against the Eagles, including a pick-six in Philadelphia’s 2021 visit to AT&T Stadium.

Third-down success - Situational football is stressed all over the league but few teams are as effective offensively on the game’s most important down than the Eagles and Cowboys. The Nick Sirianni/Shane Steichen offense is No. 3 in the NFL, converting 47.3% of the time while Dallas is not far behind at 45.9%, No. 5 in the league. The third-down defenses are also effective with the Cowboys running at No. 8 and the Eagles at No. 9.

Turnovers - The Eagles lead the NFL in turnover differential at plus-12 while the Cowboys are tops in generating turnovers with 26 and second in ratio at plus-9.

Eagles pass rush against Dallas offensive line - Philadelphia is on the verge of having four players with double-digit sacks which has never happened before in the history of the NFL. Haason Reddick (12) and Javon Hargrave (10) are already there, and Josh Sweat (9.5) and Brandon Graham (8.5) are on the cusp.

3...THINGS TO KNOW

-The Cowboys consistently take the football way so Minshew has to be sharp. After leading the NFL in generating turnovers in 2021 with 34, Dallas is again pacing the league in 2022 entering Week 16 with 26.

-The Eagles not only lead the league in sacks but they do on third down as well, with 30 of them, including nine from Reddick.

-The Eagles are the only undefeated team on the road this season and have matched a franchise record with nine consecutive regular-season road wins overall. A win at Dallas would complete a perfect regular season away from Lincoln Financial Field and set a new team record for consecutive road wins.

2...X-FACTORS

For the Eagles: TE Dallas Goedert - The star tight end missed five games with a fractured glenoid in his shoulder. Always an important part of the offense, Goedert is an even bigger deal for Minshew, who is more comfortable with intermediate and in-breaking throws. Giving Goedert an extra week of practice before activating him could have helped eliminate some rust issues.

For the Cowboys: CB Kelvin Joseph - Dallas had one of the best pass defenses in the NFL with Anthony Brown complementing Trevon Diggs on the outside. Since Brown was lost to a torn Achilles’ things have gone south and it was his replacement Kelvin Joseph, who was targeted by the Jags in their comeback last week. 

The struggling CB bit on a double move to allow a 59-yard touchdown from Zay Jones and then was schooled on an inside-out by smooth route runner Marvin Jones on a 10-yard TD to erase most of the 17-point lead. The Cowboys don’t need splash plays by Joseph but they co need competency.

1...PREDICTIONS

John McMullen (12-2, 4-10 vs. the spread) - The guess here is that Minshew plays well and in some ways, maybe the Eagles show a little bit more on offense because he's in the game. 

After all, with a potential third matchup looming between these two teams in January more than a possibility, perhaps Sirianni and Steichen would have wanted to keep some things with the QB1 under wraps. With Minshew, they can give the Cowboys 60 minutes of film and say knock yourself out with it.

Getting Goedert back in the lineup should be big for Minshew because the intermediate game becomes more important and it will be interesting to see what the former Jags starter can do with such a superlative supporting cast on offense.

The thought here is that the Eagles make this a competitive game but ultimately the Cowboys win "Starter vs. Backup The Sequel" after Hurts bested the Cooper Rush-led Cowboys back in Week 6 and the highly-anticipated Hurts vs. Dak Prescott duel was pushed back into January if Dallas can carry its own water.

COWBOYS 23, EAGLES 21

Ed Kracz (12-2, 7-7 vs. the spread) -.There are plenty of reasons to like the Eagles in this game, and that includes Gardner Minshew. My hunch is the backup will play well enough to win.

The Cowboys, though, have struggled the past two weeks, and would like to right the ship. They have likely circled this game since the Eagles beat them in round one.

COWBOYS 27, EAGLES 20

--John McMullen contributes Eagles coverage for SI.com's Eagles Today and is the NFL Insider for JAKIB Media. You can listen to John, alongside legendary sports-talk host Jody McDonald every morning from 8-10 on ‘Birds 365,” streaming live on YouTube. John is also the host of his own show "Football 24/7” and a daily contributor to ESPN South Jersey. You can reach him at jmcmullen44@gmail.com or on Twitter @JFMcMullen