Cure-All Or Circumstance? Examining the Eagles Under Center

When it comes to the Eagles under center correlation does not imply causation.

Oct 27, 2024; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) snaps the ball against the Cincinnati Bengals in the first half at Paycor Stadium. / Katie Stratman-Imagn Images

PHILADELPHIA - In the case of the Eagles' under center, the verdict lands on a time-tested thought: correlation does not imply causation.

That's a somewhat well-known phrase to explain the inability to establish a cause-and-effect relationship between two events solely based on an observed correlation between them.

The correlation for the Eagles with this subject is obvious. Known for being almost exclusively in either shotgun or pistol, all of a sudden the raw numbers say the Eagles have shifted in a somewhat dramatic fashion over the past three weeks.

The high-water mark on snaps under center in the Eagles' 2-2 start was 10.7% in Week 4. Post-bye during a three-game winning streak it's been 11.3% vs. Cleveland, 20% at New York, and a whopping 35.6% at Cincinnati in a dominating 37-17 win at Cincinnati.

Surely, that's the formula for success using only the black-and-white data from the Gamebook.

"Data is great. Is it actionable?" a long-time NFL executive told Eagles On SI years ago. "Actionable data is what can give you an advantage."

The launching point for the current "cure-all" for the Eagles' offense was predictable because quarterback Jalen Hurts played into it post-game after beating the Bengals.

“I think it does a lot,” Hurts said after the game when asked about being under center. “I think we’re able to be the imposers. I think that says a lot about what you are offensively."

When the QB uttered "imposers" the plug was pulled on the subsequent context for far too many.

“There are multiple ways to impose," Hurts continued "You can do that from a gun. You can do that in the pass game. You can do that in the run game, in the action game — whatever it is — as long as you’re in full control. So I think that’s more so mentality that we’re trying to develop and push. It’s about what we do, not about what anyone else does."

Here's the raw data for the Eagles under center: They ran 21 with that look in Cincinnati versus 38 in either the shotgun or pistol formations. That's the most snaps under center for the Eagles in a single game since Week 13 of the 2021 season, according to Next Gen Stats.

Of those 21 snaps, 19 were runs, and five were tush-push QB sneaks. The latter of which knocks the eye-popping 35.6% down to 27.1% just as Week 7's number can get tush-push adjusted from 20% down to 15.4%.

That's still a spike, though, and one head coach Nick Sirianni succinctly explained.

"A little bit of that is just the way the game is played out and different situations that happen in the game,” Sirianni said. “I think we’ve had some big leads here the last couple of weeks that probably make that number balloon even more."

The real story here is efficacy and execution.

Against the Bengals Saquon Barkley was significantly more effective running from under center (10 carries for 79 yards) rather than offset in the shotgun/pistol (12 carries for 29 yards) so the Eagles' closed the game under center a lot.

“By game plan and by situation, there’s certainly some really good value to it,” Moore said on Tuesday. “The run game and the potential of (play) action game as we go. So there has been some good stuff in the run game that has allowed us to get downhill the last couple weeks. We'll see where it takes us.”

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