Major Playoff Implications at Lincoln Financial Field on Sunday
PHILADELPHIA - With a month to play and the Eagles' resting during the NFL's final bye week of the season, Sunday's league action created a five-team logjam for the seventh and final playoff spot on the NFC side, a quintet Nick Sirianni's team is a part of.
For now, the actual standings are:
7. Washington (6-7, second in NFC East)
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8. Minnesota (6-7, second in NFC North)
9. Eagles (6-7, third in NFC East)
10. Atlanta (6-7, second in NFC South)
11. New Orleans (6-7, third in NFC South)
While the WFT is still hanging onto the final playoff spot after a 27-20 loss to NFC East-leading Dallas in a game that shouldn't have been that close for the Cowboys, the Eagles remain the favorite to be that final team in the dance per fivethirtyeight.com, the famed Nate Silver-created prediction website.
Per fivethirtyeight.com, the predictive standings moving into Week 15 for the final NFC playoff spot are:
7. Eagles 38%
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8. Minnesota 33%
9. Washington 27%
10. New Orleans 20%
11. Atlanta 12%
The remainder of the Eagles' schedule is what gives them the inside lane and it starts with an important game Sunday when a banged-up WFT visits Lincoln Finacial Field.
From there, Philadelphia finishes with a moribund New York Giants club at the Linc in Week 16 before the final road game of the regular season, a trip on I-95 South to visit Washington at FedEx Field. The finale is the talented Dallas team visiting South Philadelphia for a contest that it may or may not have something to play for because the Cowboys' playoff seeding may be locked up by that point.
Looking past Sunday, however, is not something the Eagles can afford to do because a setback to the WFT team would essentially cripple the Eagles moving forward.
Per fivethirtyeight.com's model, a win over Ron Rivera's club would vault the Eagles' over 50 percent when it comes to the likelihood of making the postseason. A loss, however, would plummet the Eagles to 11 percent and put them in desperate straits.
The same holds true for the WFT. Win and its chances spike to 55 percent. Lose and that collapses to 13 percent.
In layman's terms, this is not a literal must-win for either team but it certainly is a figurative one because the stars will have to align for the loser.
Because Philadelphia holds head-to-head wins over New Orleans and Atlanta and can control its own destiny against the WFT, the other team to be most concerned with as an Eagles fan is the Vikings, who have some talent but seem to be limping along to the end of the Mike Zimmer era.
The Vikings play next Monday night against Chicago and a win there would put the Vikings at 51 percent and the Eagles at 47 percent in a neck-and-neck race. However, Minnesota has a far tougher path past that with both the LA Rams and Green Bay on its schedule.
The New York Times' own prediction model, meanwhile, is a little more conservative, putting the Eagles' playoff chances at 28 percent entering Week 15 but both models agree on how important the actual game is on Sunday between Philly and Washington.
The NYT has an Eagles' win over the WFT bolstering their chances of extra football to 43 percent and a loss collapsing things to dire levels at 11 percent.
-John McMullen contributes Eagles coverage for SI.com's EagleMaven and is the NFL Insider for JAKIB Media. You can listen to John, alongside legendary sports-talk host Jody McDonald every morning from 8-10 on ‘Birds 365,” streaming live on both PhillyVoice.com and YouTube. John is also the host of his own show "Extending the Play" on AM1490 in South Jersey. You can reach him at jmcmullen44@gmail.com or on Twitter @JFMcMullen
Ed Kracz is the publisher of SI.com’s Eagle Maven and co-host of the Eagles Unfiltered Podcast. Check out the latest Eagles news at www.SI.com/NFL/Eagles or www.eaglemaven.com and please follow him on Twitter: @kracze.