On Second Watch: Eagles Coach Was Playing The Odds

The 'take the points' crowd' only gets louder based on outcome bias.

Nov 3, 2024; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni during the second quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. / Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

PHILADELPHIA - Aggressiveness has served the Eagles’ organization well, dating back to the Doug Pederson era.

Philadelphia tried to use it to dispense of Pederson and his Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday. However, what most are deeming as over-aggression kept an overmatched Jags team in the game and actually offered Jacksonville the opportunity to steal an unlikely win at Lincoln Financial Field until Nakobe Dean shut the door with a game-sealing end-zone interception with 1:38 remaining.

The first question lobbed at Nick Sirianni post-game was about the meat he left on the bone due to failed fourth-down conversions and eschewing PATs for futile two-point conversions.

It was the classic after-game second-guessing rooted in outcome bias.

“We've done pretty good with those in the past,” the head coach said. 

Critics who miss that point usually don’t understand that good decisions don't guarantee positive outcomes and vice versa. 

“You always think about everything. You think about who you have. You think about your past experiences with it. You always look at the analytics of it,” said Sirianni. “We’ve been pretty good with those. 

“Today [Jacksonville] did a good job. And I'll look at everything. In the moment I'm always doing what I think is best for the football team.”

Decisions in the NFL are always based on predictive models, whether analytical or the more feel-based experience approach. 

Coming into Sunday, the Eagles were 18 for 20 converting tush pushes, a 90% conversion rate that actually exceeded the team’s success with future Hall of Fame center Jason Kelce.

The smart move was to ride that, especially in conversion attempts when the Jags were giving up free yardage.

“Today it didn't work. That's the way it goes,” Sirianni said. “That's the hat I have to wear.”

No one is researching prior game books when fourth-down conversions or two-point attempts succeed even understanding the counterintuitive notion that those were not all necessarily good decisions due to that success.

And Sirianni said the quiet part out loud.

“When we get a fourth down and we convert a fourth down, nothing is really said. When we don't, I understand there will be questions,” Sirianni said.

It’s part of the gig to understand outcome bias is always going to trump logic and reasoning.

“Again, I have to be able to have the balls to do that really at the end of the day and say, ‘Am I doing everything I can do to help us win the game?’” Sirianni asked rhetorically. “In those moments I thought I was, but I'll go back and relook at them.”

Ironically, the litmus test can only come after a successful play. If you say to yourself, ‘yeah, that worked out but if you keep doing the same things it’s probably not going to be a positive,’ it’s probably a poor decision.

Failure clouds everything.

Arguing a failed fourth-down conversion due to a late throw is a bad decision or ignoring a 90% success rate on tush pushes only with the benefit of hindsight is as easy as it is predictable.

The whole idea is to stack good decisions to increase the odds of positive outcomes and 18-of-20 coming in is the definition of playing the odds.

On Sunday it didn’t work. The good news is that it didn't and the Eagles were still able to escape with a win.

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