Opposition Intell With Prediction: Saints Offense Suits Derek Carr

The Saints have been the most explosive NFL team early in the season and expecting Philadelphia to keep up without A.J. Brown is a tall task.

Sep 15, 2024; Arlington, Texas, USA; New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr (4) throws during the first half against the Dallas Cowboys. / Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

PHILADELPHIA - It’s a small two-week sample size but the New Orleans Saints have been punishing opposing defenses to the tune of 45.5 points per game, the best mark in the NFL. 

The caveat to that is the Saints jumped on perhaps the league’s worst team (Carolina) in Week 1, a realization somewhat mitigated by a 44-19 thumping on the road against the Dallas Cowboys, a playoff-level team that was unbeaten at AT&T Stadium during the 2023 regular season.

From a numbers standpoint, New Orleans is No. 3 in total offense (405.5 yards per game), third in rushing offense (185.0 ypg), No. 11 in passing (220.5 ypg), No. 2 in third-down offense (57.1 %), and No. 2 in red-zone offense (88.9 %).

At the center of it all is veteran quarterback Derek Carr manipulating the so-called Shanahan/Kubiak play-action scheme under new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, the son of long-time Mike Shanahan consigliere Gary Kubiak.

“I think this offense really suits him,” Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio said of Carr. “He’s always been one of the most talented passers in the league. He throws it short, intermediate, and deep very, very well. Throws a great deep ball.”

When things are clicking with this style of offense, it’s a strong running game spawning shot plays to big-play receivers Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed. The foundation of it all is duel-threat running back Alvin Kamara, who is capable of gouging you as a runner or receiver.

“They’re max protecting a lot, giving [Carr] time,” said Fangio. “They’re running boots. They’ve got the running game going. I think this offense and him is a really good marriage.”

The Eagles’ defense, meanwhile, has been gashed to the tune of 157.5 yards per game on the ground during their first two games, something that also affected what had been a moribund pass rush.

“If you don't stop the run, you're not going to get in the obvious pass. The team we're playing this week, they either run it or max protect play action, run boots,” Fangio said. “They're doing a great job offensively, which makes it hard.”

Also trending against the Eagles is Carr’s history against Fangio-led defenses (6-2 as a starter with 12 touchdowns) and the run he’s been on since last season with six consecutive games with at least two touchdown passes and a passer rating of 100.0 or more.

Only four QBs in history have accomplished that seven consecutive times: Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, and Patrick Mahomes.

John McMullen's Pick: Saints 34, Eagles 23 - Philadelphia is not equipped to win a shootout without A.J Brown, who is not expected to play, and it’s too early to speed up the defensive growing pains to compete with the explosive Saints on the road. 

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