ESPN Ranks Eagles Among 'Most Likely To Decline'

ESPN's Bill Barnwell thinks the Philadelphia Eagles may not replicate its regular season success from last season.

It may not be all sunshine and rainbows for the Philadelphia Eagles this season.

At least that's what ESPN's Bill Barnwell projects for the defending NFC champs. 

Barnwell used "quantitative metrics" to predict four teams likely to decline this season, and among the teams were the Eagles. The Minnesota Vikings, Pittsburgh Steelers and New York Giants were the other three teams Barnwell picked. 

"There are still plenty of reasons to doubt that the Eagles will win 14 games in the regular season again, though," Barnwell writes. "We'll start with the same thing that has popped up for the Vikings and Giants: The Eagles rode their luck in close games. They went 6-1 in games decided by seven points or fewer, including a perfect mark in Hurts' starts."

Among the games decided by seven points or fewer were wins over the Chicago Bears, Indianapolis Colts and Arizona Cardinals. 

The difference in Philadelphia's strength of schedule compared to last season also factored into Barnwell's projections. Multiple models had the Eagles with one of the easiest schedules in 2022. Philadelphia's strength of schedule jumps to the fifth toughest this season, according to the FTN Football Almanac.

Other factors that Barnwell included were injury luck and replacing players they lost in free agency, like defensive tackle Javon Hargrave and linebacker T.J. Edwards. But even with those question marks and a tougher schedule, he still believes Philadelphia will be among the NFC's best. 

"Of course, barring serious injury to Hurts, the Eagles should still be very good," Barnwell writes..." In the weaker conference, Philadelphia should still be a huge favorite to return to the postseason. I just think that trip will come with 10 to 12 wins instead of 14."

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