New Analytical Index Suggests Kirk Cousins is Carrying the Falcons

The Athletic's QB Betrayal Index indicates quarterback Kirk Cousins is doing the heavy lifting with the Atlanta Falcons this season.

Atlanta Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins / Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

The Atlanta Falcons wanted improved quarterback play this season. They are getting that, and according to some analytics, it's the only reason the team is sitting in first place of the NFC South.

The Athletic released its first QB Betrayal Index for the 2024 season Thursday. First introduced two years ago, the Betrayal Index intends to measure "the degree to which quarterbacks overcome poor play by their own teams' defense and special teams."

According to the Index released before the start of Week 11, Cousins is the fourth-best quarterback at overcoming the poor play from his defense and special teams.

"Two victories over Tampa Bay and another over Philadelphia in games in which the Falcons’ defense/special teams faltered helped offset a tough opening-week defeat against Pittsburgh, when Cousins and the offense struggled in his first game back from a torn Achilles," wrote The Athletic's Mike Sando.

According to The Athletic, Cousins is ranked eighth in QB-EPA while the Falcons defense/special teams is 30th. That gave him a Betrayal Index of minus-22.

The only three quarterbacks with a larger negative number in the Betrayal Index before Week 11 was MVP front runner Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow and Baker Mayfield.

Essentially, this is all a fancy way of saying Cousins is doing some of the best work at quarterback of masking his team's deficiencies on defense and special teams this season.

Anyone watching Falcons games in 2024 likely already knew that. Fans don't need analytics to tell them that the Falcons have struggled mightily to pressure quarterbacks and convert stalled drives into field goals. The team is last in the NFL with 9 sacks, and Falcons kicker Younghoe Koo leads the NFL with 7 missed field goals.

The Falcons, though, are 6-4 because Cousins has averaged 7.9 yards per pass with 17 touchdowns. He also leads the NFL with 3 fourth-quarter comebacks.

When Cousins hasn't play well, the Falcons have lost. That's not necessarily unique to the Falcons because whenever any quarterback plays poorly, that team's chances of winning greatly diminishes.

But the margin of error for Cousins seems smaller than for other signal callers. Atlanta is 1-3 when he throws more interceptions than touchdowns this season.

In all likelihood, that's not going to change going forward. The 2024 Falcons will go as far as Cousins can take them.