Kyle Pitts Fantasy Outlook and Expectations

Atlanta Falcons tight end should see considerably more targets, favorable coverage, and accurate passes coming his way with Kirk Cousins at QB in 2024.

The stars are aligning for Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts to have a monster 2024. / Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

Kyle Pitts, according to the league, plays tight end. However, with his skill set and ability, he profiles more as a very large, but agile wide receiver. The Atlanta Falcons seemed to have agreed; last season he lined up in the slot or out wide 84.9% of the time according to PFF.

As he enters his fourth season, this time with a new offensive scheme, Pitts endeavors to enjoy a monster 2024 campaign. Regardless of the coaching changes or teams on the schedule, talent plays. For Pitts, his talent doesn't just play, but possesses the ability to break a game wide open.

11 Heaven

New offensive coordinator Zac Robinson arrives in Atlanta with Head Coach Raheem Morris. Robinson, during his time in Los Angeles utilized 11 personnel. Basically, one running back, one tight end and three wideouts as a base offense.

The Falcons Podcast: Spotify | Apple Pods | iHeart

For Pitts, lining up as an actual tight end, with wideouts flanking you, potentially seeing a linebacker in coverage should lead to several big games and touchdowns. Now, if you split the season into chunks, which weeks will Pitts feast on opposing defenses most?

Weeks 1-8

By far, this shapes up as the most difficult stretch for the Atlanta tight end. During the opening week, the Falcons host the Steelers. Pittsburgh presents as two-pronged problem defensively. Their pass rush, from multiple angles will attempt to disrupt Kirk Cousins. With T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith bearing down on Cousins, the need to get rid of the ball becomes super necessary. 

Furthermore, Minkah Fitzpatrick played the entirety of 2023 with a single interception. He will look to jump routes and harass Pitts, since he is the only Steeler player capable of covering him. Following those back-to-back games versus opportunistic secondary buttressed by hellacious pass rushes.

Both the Eagles and Chiefs value pressure to act as an invisible defender in the secondary. However the schedule lightens up at that the backside of the first half, to an extent. The Falcons play the Panthers once and see Tampa Bay twice. During his career, Pitts plays best against those two foes, catching thirty-four passes and two scores.

Weeks 9-18

Pitts will not enjoy home cooking during the back half of 2024.

The Falcons play just-four home games from November 3rd  to the end of the season. Yet, only one of those game will take place in potentially freezing conditions, a December 29th tilt against the Commanders.

Believe it or not, from a statistical viewpoint, Pitts plays much better later in the season. Sixty-one of his 149 career catches take play from November to January. More importantly, the yards per catch increases to 15.96.

On paper, Pitts can expect a track meet with defenders that late in the season. If Kirk Cousins sees Pitts gaining separation on a routine basis, he will throw deeper routes without hesitation (and with accuracy). Quite the departure from Arthur Smith.

Bottom Line

Taking everything into consideration, Kyle Pitts will not only meet but exceed his phenomenal rookie season, when he totaled 68 catches for 1026 yards and one touchdown. Within the construct of the new offense and the emphasis placed on the passing game, 80 catches for 1100-1200 yards and seven touchdowns looks in the realm of possibility,

In fact, Pitts' athletic profile demands he take the place next to Drake London as option 1A and 1B for the Atlanta Falcons in the passing game..