Flick's Forum: Arthur Smith Falcons Tenure Ends Fittingly; What's Next?
For a moment, it all felt right.
Rookie running back Bijan Robinson glided into the endzone, finishing a 71-yard catch-and-run touchdown from second-year quarterback Desmond Ridder.
The play gave the Atlanta Falcons a 14-7 lead over the New Orleans Saints late in the first quarter Sunday inside Caesars Superdome. It was Atlanta's second touchdown in its last three plays from scrimmage.
Ridder had completed all five of his passes, accumulating 157 yards and two touchdowns. Two of his completions went for 50-plus yards.
Arthur Smith's vision had finally appeared - the young quarterback off to a flying start, the top-10 playmaker fresh off setting the team's rookie record for all-purpose yards, the explosive offense hitting big plays and firing on all cylinders.
It was all there.
Suddenly, it wasn't.
Atlanta scored just three points over the final 49 minutes. New Orleans scored 41. The Falcons suffered a 48-17 defeat, the second-largest loss of Smith's three-year tenure.
As Smith ran to midfield to greet Saints head coach Dennis Allen postgame, he did so in a rage, spewing expletives over New Orleans' final touchdown, which arose after the Saints aligned in victory formation.
In this moment, none of it felt right. And unfortunately for Smith, none of it's felt right for the past month - for some, the timeline may date back even further.
Smith now finds himself out as Falcons head coach, with the team announcing the decision shortly after midnight Monday morning.
This theme from Sunday - signs of encouragement, the glimpse of a vision and then watching it end lifelessly - largely summarizes the 2023 season.
Atlanta began 2-0, backed by a strong offseason in which general manager Terry Fontenot spent over $190 million, and appeared poised to deliver on its lofty summer hype. After all, it was Year 3 of a three-year plan. It was time to win.
Falcons owner Arthur Blank offered patience the first two seasons, watching as the team finished 7-10 both times, with cap limitations from the previous regime hindering rebuilding efforts.
But this year was supposed to be different.
It wasn't.
For the third consecutive season, the Falcons finished 7-10 and hold the No. 8 overall selection in April's draft.
Progress? In terms of on-field results, none.
"He has been part of building a good culture in our football team, but the results on the field have not met our expectations," Blank said, per release.
When Smith arrived in Jan. 2021, the Falcons' playoff drought was three years. It's now six years. He coached just five total games with a season record above .500, all coming this year.
He had the locker room's support until the end, with several players voicing their belief in him after Sunday's loss, but minds began to wander.
At least one, potentially more, defensive coaches began lining up their jobs for next season multiple weeks before the end of this year.
The writing was on the wall after Atlanta's 9-7 road loss to the then-one-win Carolina Panthers on Dec. 17, which made a path to the postseason incredibly difficult and ultimately proved too much to overcome.
The Falcons went 1-3 against teams picking inside the draft's top-four selections, and just 2-6 overall against those inside the top-11. Against teams with records above .500, Atlanta went 5-4.
Again - signs of encouragement, glimpses of a vision ... and ending lifelessly with crushing losses to some of the league's worst teams.
Unlike the perception many gave him, Smith wasn't an enemy of the media - actually quite the opposite. He'd share a chat at Starbucks, treat reporters with respect and often give quality answers to quality questions.
Sometimes, things just don't work out.
Smith's first offseason in Atlanta was cap-stricken and saw the trade saga of legendary receiver Julio Jones. His first game on the sidelines was a 32-6 loss. His second was a 48-25 loss. That's a 49-point difference.
His final two games in Atlanta were losses of 37-17 and 48-17, respectively. That's a 51-point difference.
In between, there were ups and downs, big wins and crushing losses ... and ultimately, high hopes and unfulfilled expectations.
Sep 17, 2023; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Falcons head coach Arthur Smith reacts on the sideline against the Green Bay Packers during the second half at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
So, what's next?
Fontenot, who was hired the same offseason as Smith, has been retained, but isn't leading the search. Instead, it's Blank and CEO Rich McKay, per release, with input from Fontenot.
McKay led the process to hire Smith and Fontenot with Blank making the final decision. The two will now collaborate just three years later with hopes of righting the wrongs.
The process to replace Smith began immediately and there is no timeline to make a decision.
Reports emerged over the weekend Blank had already begun reaching out to others around the league asking for input, not only on Smith but checking out the coaching market.
In essence, work to establish a list of candidates started before the Falcons fired Smith.
Whether Atlanta pursues an offensive or defensive minded coach remains to be seen, but its need to land a franchise quarterback may give an offensive coach a slight edge.
Blank hired Dan Quinn, a defensive-minded coach, in 2015. He hired Smith for his offensive mind in 2021. Neither brought the 81-year-old his long-sought-after Super Bowl, though Quinn came painfully close in his second year.
Regardless, Blank just wants to win - firing Smith after three years shows he's starting to break away from the patient reputation he'd previously acquired.
Whoever's hired will inherit a strong foundation, which Smith deserves at least partial credit for.
Atlanta's offense, despite its struggles in 2023, has a lot working in its favor.
There are three top-10 picks from the past three years - Robinson, receiver Drake London and tight end Kyle Pitts - all under team control for at least the next two years.
There's an offensive line that'll return all five starters, including a trio of players - left tackle Jake Matthews, right guard Chris Lindstrom and right tackle Kaleb McGary - all making at least $10 million, along with left guard Matthew Bergeron, a second-round pick in 2023.
The running back's room has Robinson and Tyler Allgeier, who broke the franchise's rookie rushing record in 2022. At tight end, Pitts is paired with Jonnu Smith, who had a bounce-back 2023 campaign.
Defensively, the Falcons return several staples, including Pro Bowl safety Jessie Bates III, defensive tackles Grady Jarrett and David Onyemata, linebacker Kaden Elliss and cornerback A.J. Terrell.
There's a reason expectations were so high in Atlanta entering 2023 - the roster, from top to bottom, has legitimate talent under control for multiple years.
Except - and a rather large except - at quarterback.
The Falcons swung and missed on the Desmond Ridder-franchise quarterback experiment. Taylor Heinicke hasn't proven to be a long-term answer. Both appear better suited for backup roles and are currently under contract for next season.
Logan Woodside threw his first four passes of the season Sunday, going three of four for 27 yards but tossing an interception.
Atlanta's starting quarterback for next season isn't yet on the roster. That'll be priority No. 1 for the new coach, who should now have the opportunity to select a quarterback in the draft.
If Smith had been retained, the quarterback situation was murky - would he go into a must-win year with a rookie? Unlikely.
In such a scenario, Atlanta's prompted with acquiring a veteran, likely at an expensive cost, and the market isn't expected to be filled with a strong crop of several-year answers.
Now, there's flexibility - though the Falcons still have a roster capable of winning in 2024, quarterback aside.
As a result, this should be a reasonably appealing job ... but still, the dark cloud of the NFL's third-longest playoff drought hangs over the organization.
There's a chance for brighter days in Atlanta. Smith, albeit in small spurts as he never won three or more games consecutively, had flashes of sunshine.
But in the end, it all came thundering down, one turnover, one berating and one lifeless performance at a time.
The Falcons now enter a new era, one they hope will be filled with more wins, more hardware ... and a longer wait than three years until their next head coaching search.
