Desmond Ridder's Fourth Quarter Stardom Gives Atlanta Falcons Hope - But Consistency Remains Concern

"It would be one thing if there was nothing to have hope about, but there are other things that you’re like, 'that’s pretty damn good,'" Atlanta Falcons coach Arthur Smith said of quarterback Desmond Ridder and the offense's inconsistencies.

Atlanta Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder stood in the top left corner of the endzone, seconds removed from stiff-arming and running around Tampa Bay Buccaneers edge rusher Joe Tryon-Shoyinka.

Ridder had just given the Falcons a 23-22 lead with only three minutes left to play. He no longer possessed the ball - it was sent flying into the rafters of Mercedes-Benz Stadium - but replaced it with something else: belief.

This was the second time Ridder's legs gave the Falcons a late lead - but like in a Week 10 loss to the Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta fell short to Tampa Bay, suffering a 29-25 defeat.

The Falcons found a new gear in the fourth quarter, coming one stop - and three yards - away from erasing a nine-point deficit, but instead find themselves in a three-way tie for first place in the NFC South.

Over its three drives in the fourth quarter, Atlanta recorded 203 total yards and scored 15 points, which is merely a continuation of season-long offensive success in the final frame.

Through 13 games, the Falcons boast the NFL's fourth-best scoring offense in the fourth quarter, averaging 8.1 points per game, and have been outscored just three times.

Ridder's been a key part in this development, as his Adjusted Expected Points Added (EPA) of 0.265 per play in the fourth quarter is third best in the league, and Atlanta's fourth quarter team passer rating of 97.6 is sixth best.

And yet, the Falcons are just 6-7. Ridder, who's 6-5 as a starter, has already been benched once and hasn't inspired much confidence he's the long-term option.

Many of it comes down to his performance the first three quarters, as his EPA ranks 29th, 30th and 29th across those frames, respectively, per 929TheGame's Joe Patrick.

Ridder has shown the ability to respond - but in some cases, he's dug too deep of a hole before turning it on late.

So, why the slow starts? What changes to cause the late runs? Where do the consistency issues stem from?

"I don't know," Ridder said. "Obviously, there's a lot of factors whether you get into the game and things just get into a rhythm and it flows, but you just got to be able to stay in and be locked in for however many snaps it is every single play, and don't let up on anything."

Ridder's not alone in his struggles quantifying the situation.

Falcons coach Arthur Smith has done extensive studies and partaken in several conversations with hopes of finding an answer, not just for Ridder but the entire offense.

Smith's still searching.

"That’s what we’re trying to capture," Smith said. "We’ve looked at every way we’ve started a game. We’ve looked at lulls within games. We’ve looked at moving the ball at the end of the second quarter but coming away with no points and things that have come up there.

"That is a very good positive, but capturing that consistently from Quarters 1, 2, 3 and 4."

For Ridder, the struggles at least partially come from finding a rhythm, which has led Atlanta to find the endzone just twice on its opening drives this season. The Falcons have scored 20 total points on the first possession to date.

Consider further Atlanta's third down numbers, in which it's converted only 24 of 73 attempts (32.9 percent) in the first and third quarters as opposed to 47 of 102 tries (46.1 percent) in the second and fourth quarters, and this notion of finding the game's flow becomes prominent.

Smith said he's been around players who need to get hit first to become acclimated to the game. Ridder believes he's one of them.

"Sometimes, it's tough for me playing quarterback and having a perfect pocket and just being back there and it's like seven-on-seven or it's like practice," Ridder said. "Then you don't get hit until like the third quarter and then you're like 'Whoa, where have I been?'

"I like to get a little hit in there that makes you feel like you're a part of the game instead of back there just kind of managing it sometimes."

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Ridder's drives against Tampa Bay and Arizona are two instances of go-ahead scores that didn't stick.

But even with those missed opportunities, he's still led four game-winning drives this year, tops in the NFL, and has sparked two fourth quarter comebacks.

These are the moments Ridder's long prepared for, comparing it to shooting baskets as a little kid in the backyard with the clock winding down and having the chance to make the winning play.

Whether it's comfort or the innate ability to find an extra level of focus, Ridder stars in the game's biggest moments, and he feels he gets better as the game progresses and he allows it to come his way.

"You get into that fourth quarter and you know you got to go win or protect a lead - it's crunch time, it's when you finish," Ridder said. "It's what we train for, that's what all of us train for is to be in those last-minute situations to go win a game ... It's all in us to just go out there and finish."

Atlanta Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder (9) throws a pass against the New York Jets during the first quarter at MetLife Stadium / Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Smith used different analogies to convey another point - it's easy to see when somebody's in a flow, regardless of the sport they're playing.

A self-proclaimed tennis novice, Smith compared a hypothetical match between Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer as an illustration of two players at their peak in a certain setting.

But then, you may see them another day playing in a lower-stakes match with fewer eyes on them and performing at a much worse level, prompting the audience to quickly realize something isn't right.

Smith transitioned to another sport to paint a similar picture, noting how one can identify the synchronization of a golfer's swing when at his or her best.

So, how does this relate to Ridder?

Regardless of whether it's a member of the team or neutral observer, Smith believes it's clear to see the rhythm and flow Ridder's been able to establish in late-game moments.

This is where it grows frustrating - or perhaps challenging - for Smith.

Ridder's proven he can produce. How do the Falcons seize the consistency and turn his spurts of promising play into the status quo across 60 minutes?

"That’s the question everybody tries to figure out," Smith said. "It would be one thing if there was nothing to have hope about, but there are other things that you’re like, 'that’s pretty damn good.'"

Finding a defined answer to the question is what Smith and the Falcons are working towards, with four games left to generate a plausible solution.

If Atlanta remains uncertain by season's end, it'll have a decision to make on Ridder's future - and with 15 professional starts under his belt, his resume is beginning to take shape.

The 24-year-old Ridder has completed 63.5 percent of his passes in each of the past two seasons while accumulating 2,376 yards, 11 touchdowns and nine interceptions through the air.

As a runner, Ridder's compiled 259 yards and five touchdowns on 62 attempts, averaging 4.2 yards per rush. He's also fumbled 13 times, including 10 this season.

"I've had my ups and downs," Ridder said. "I've been able to go out there and play good games and then throughout the games, there's one or two plays where something goes wrong and there's a mistake, but then it's 'how do you respond?'

"I feel like every time that a mistake has happened, I've responded the right way."

Smith agrees, and after he returned the keys to Atlanta's offense back to Ridder in Week 12, singled out the confidence he showed replacing Taylor Heinicke in the fourth quarter against Arizona.

Still, the Falcons need more than a strong response - they need consistency.

Atlanta's scored 42 percent of its points in the fourth quarter this season. Receiver Drake London pointed to execution and a competitive mindset as the primary reasons. Safety Jessie Bates III added the Falcons are more physical and better conditioned than their opponents.

But how can Atlanta - and Ridder in particular - jumpstart this success earlier in games?

Both Ridder and Falcons offensive coordinator Dave Ragone noted it's more than the quarterback on each play, with the other 10 players needing to execute their responsibilities consistently, as well.

That said, there's proof of what Ridder can be - and perhaps the most convincing evidence is proof of consistency during high-pressure moments.

“In terms of where he’s at, there’s things that we build on," Ragone said. "You look at him in the end of games, stretches of games, in which there’s a high-consistency level.”

The Falcons are now entering the fourth quarter of their season, with just four weeks left to play and everything still to play for.

Atlanta's trying to make the playoffs for the first time in six years. Ridder's hoping to prove he deserves the right to start under center again next season.

Smith and London both feel Ridder's made substantial progress, with London singling out leadership, decision making and his ability to make plays.

Ridder arrived in Atlanta in Apr. 2022 with the reputation of being a winner; it's all he did at Cincinnati, departing as the third-winningest signal caller in college football history.

Now, Ridder's facing his most daunting task yet: winning enough games to save the Falcons' season ... and potentially his job.

To date, Ridder has been at his best when the lights have brightest - and his teammates have taken notice.

"When that fourth quarter comes down, he's been ... every single time, we've had a winning drive or (he's) at least given us a chance to get down there," London said.

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Can Ridder find that production consistently down the stretch?

It's in his hands - and the Falcons are hoping to find solutions sooner than later, starting Sunday at 1 p.m. EST against the Carolina Panthers (1-12) inside Bank of America Stadium.

"We're going to get their best shot, they're going to get our best shot, and that's plain and simple at the end of the day," Ridder said. We've got to go out there and execute better."