Falcons vs. Jaguars Q&A: Predictions, Analysis on Week 4 Matchup

Prior to the Atlanta Falcons' Week 4 contest with the Jacksonville Jaguars, SI's Falcon Report received an in-depth look at what to expect from SI's Jaguar Report beat writer John Shipley.

The Atlanta Falcons (2-1) will travel across the pond Thursday in advance of Sunday's matchup with the Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2).

Atlanta and Jacksonville will kick off at 9:30 a.m. EST from inside Wembley Stadium in London, both sides seeking to get back on track after disappointing defeats last weekend.

SI's Falcon Report spoke with Jaguars beat reporter John Shipley, who covers the team for SI's Jaguar Report, to answer five key questions ahead of Week 4.

Daniel Flick: The Jaguars entered this year with such high expectations - what are the biggest reasons for their slow 1-2 start?

John Shipley: There are a lot of reasons, but the biggest reason is because the Jaguars can't get out of their own way. Doug Pederson said this week that the Jaguars' issues have been what they have done to themselves and not as much what other teams have done to them, and Week 3 was a great example.

The Jaguars had a fumble in the red-zone on a third-down conversion, had a hands to the face penalty on a fourth-down conversion, missed a field goal, had a field goal blocked, missed five tackles on a fullback on a kickoff return touchdown, and had two mental busts in coverage that led to 40% of the Texans' passing production.

It is rare for a team to have that many self-inflicted wounds in one game, but that has been the story of the Jaguars' season so far. The Jaguars should be better than they are, but they can only look in the mirror when looking for reasons they have struggled.

There are a few other underlying issues, too. The Jaguars have been one of the NFL's most efficient offenses on early downs but among the NFL's worst offenses on third down, in large part because of back-breaking penalties and mental mistakes from the offense, along with an offensive line that has struggled on money downs.

The Jaguars have shot themselves in the foot maybe more than any other team this year.

DF: Trevor Lawrence is on pace for 4,170 passing yards,17 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. How would you evaluate his start to the season, and where is he at in terms of chemistry with former Falcons receiver Calvin Ridley?

JS: This will sound a bit bonkers considering his statistical production this year, but Trevor Lawrence has been ... good? Maybe even great?

The Jaguars lead the NFL in drops, with almost 10% of Lawrence's attempts resulting in a drop so far this season. He has made good decisions week in and week out, with a second-half interception last week being the sole exception.

Lawrence has simply been let down by his skill players and offensive line so far this year. Lawrence has improved from a year ago in terms of accuracy and decision-making, but the rest of the offense hasn't improved with him.

As for Calvin Ridley, it has been an up-and-down season so far. Ridley dominated the Colts in Week 1 and looked like an alpha No. 1 target, but he has caught just five of his 15 targets the last two weeks and leads the NFL in drops through three weeks with four.

Lawrence has a lot of trust in him, though, which is why he leads the Jaguars in targets through three weeks despite his issues. Lawrence is getting the ball to him, but Ridley has to finish.

DF: Jacksonville’s defense ranks No. 19 in yards allowed per game with 348.3 and No. 23 in points per game at 25. What’s your overall assessment of the unit thus far?

JS: The book on the Jaguars' defense is clear so far. The Jaguars have an elite run-stuffing unit thanks to the play of their interior defensive line, linebacker Foyesade Oluokun, and Travon Walker and Josh Allen each living in opponents' backfields on running downs.

The Jaguars have been able to make offenses largely one-dimensional this year, ranking top-4 in rushing EPA/Play and rushing success rate allowed.

With that said, the pass defense has lagged behind. The Jaguars have given up explosive gains through the air in every game this season, with mental mistakes in the secondary playing a large role.

The Jaguars also only have five sacks this year, with two of those being false sacks in which the defender pushed a running quarterback out of bounds behind the line of scrimmage while they are scrambling. Josh Allen has had a productive year as a pass-rusher, but Travon Walker has been a big disappointment.

Aug 27, 2022; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; A general view of the line of scrimmage during a game between the Atlanta Falcons and Jacksonville Jaguars in the first half at Mercedes-Benz Stadium / Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

DF: Which two players - one offensively, one defensively - have outplayed expectations and are names to watch for Falcons fans this weekend?

JS: Walker Little has been a force at left tackle for the Jaguars, allowing just three pressures over the first three weeks. On an offensive line that has struggled so far, Little has been a legit bright spot. It will be tough for the Falcons to get much of a pass-rush over him.

Defensively, the Jaguars have gotten really solid play out of nickel cornerback Tre Herndon. Herndon can be beat with speed, but he is a sound tackler in space and does a great job of limiting screens on the perimeter. The Jaguars also love to use him as a blitzer, so expect to see him get a few shots at Ridder.

DF: Game prediction - who walks out of Wembley Stadium victorious?

JS: This is tough for me. The Jaguars are legit reeling after an inexcusable and embarrassing loss to the Texans. I do think they match up well with the Falcons, though, since the Jaguars have a strong run defense and can maybe hope their line can find some more time this week. Jaguars 20, Falcons 17.