ESPN's FPI says the Atlanta Falcons will finish 8-8 and out of the NFL playoffs

It's not all bad ESPN says through its NFL Football Power Index  (FPI) that the Atlanta Falcons have less than a one percent chance of winning the Super Bowl. That same FPI claims they have nearly a two percent chance of making it.

If you go by something designed by ESPN called the NFL Football Power Index (FPI), the Atlanta Falcons are in trouble.

Big trouble.

Let's put it this way: Since general manger Thomas Dimitroff and head coach Dan Quinn need the Falcons to do well in the playoff this season to save their jobs after consecutive 7-9 finishes, they'll likely feel a little woozy after reading these FPI numbers and percentages involving their franchise for the 2020 NFL season.

Here it goes, and  just so you know, the FPI predicts the outcome this season for each of the NFL's 32 teams in various categories.

For the Falcons . . .

Final record: 8-8.

Chances of reaching the playoffs: 31%

Chances of winning the NFC South: 10%

Chances of making the Super Bowl: 1.9%

Chances of winning the Super Bowl: 0.7%

There are other numbers and percentages produced by ESPN's FPI formula regarding the Falcons, but you get the picture: All of those off-season moves for the Falcons, ranging from the acquisition of Dante Fowler to help the pass rush to the signing of Todd Gurley as a way to resurrect a dead running game, mean nothing.

That is, if you believe ESPN's FPI formula.

To hear that cable network tell it, FPI "is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily." 

There's good news here for the Falcons, though

Projections and playing are two different things.

So the Falcons can turn projections into nothingness.


Published
Terence Moore
TERENCE MOORE

I started as a professional sports journalist in 1978 at the Cincinnati Enquirer after I graduated from Miami (Ohio) University, and I’ve been doing the same thing ever since. I also appear on national television, and I’m part of a weekly TV show in Atlanta. I’ve done everything from ESPN to MSNBC to The Oprah Winfrey Show. As for writing, I’ve gone from working for major newspapers in San Francisco and Atlanta to operating as a national columnist at AOL Sports, MLB.com, Sports On Earth.com and CNN.Com. I’ve covered a slew of sporting events. I’ve done 30 Super Bowls, numerous World Series and NBA Finals games, Final Fours, several Indianapolis 500, Daytona 500 and other auto races, major prize fights and golf tournaments, college football bowl games and more. I’ve also won national, state and local awards along the way.