Why Falcons Will Take Step Back in NFC South; ESPN Explains
After two promising performances in their opening preseason games, the expectations continue to be high for the Atlanta Falcons. Winning the NFC South seems like a baseline for what the Falcons want to do this season, yet a recent article has attempted to predict the Falcons' ceiling and floor, with the gap being pretty sizeable between the two.
ESPN recently predicted the ceiling and floors of all 32 NFL teams, with the Falcons being picked to perform as well as 11-6, with their nightmare scenario being set at 5-12. So, what is the difference that could turn the Falcons' season from a dream to a nightmare?
"If the Falcons' first-year coordinator is able to create a pass rush with Calais Campbell, David Onyemata and Bud Dupree (among others) surrounding defensive tackle Grady Jarrett, Atlanta could get its offense more possessions, ..." ESPN writes. "The aggressiveness could also help with creating turnovers, and the secondary has a lot of talent, including former first-round picks A.J. Terrell and Jeff Okudah at cornerback."
Maybe to the surprise of many, ESPN sees the defense as the potential "make-or-break" for the Falcons this season. As Rothenstein writes, Atlanta will need their offseason additions to pay off in the form of an improved pass rush combined with a secondary that can create turnovers. If the Falcons can do all of that, then it is likely they finish with that 11-6 record. But ... if everything doesn't go as planned, then that record could turn into 5-12.
Another nightmare scenario for the Falcons includes starting quarterback Desmond Ridder not panning out. Despite his strong showing in the 13-13 draw with the Cincinnati Bengals, it is still too early to say that he will play up to expectations.
If Ridder and the Falcons aren't efficient in the passing game and struggle with turnovers, no matter how well the defense plays, it will be hard to win games for Atlanta.
Then again, with the Falcons expected to run a non-quarterback-centric offense, a bad day for the defense could see Atlanta find themselves in a shootout or having to play from behind, which would potentially force them away from relying on their ground game and see a young quarterback have to throw more.
Essentially, the Falcons' nightmare could come in one of two ways:
1) The defense doesn't see much improvement up front or in the backend, forcing the offense to shy away from the run game as they play from behind or get into a shootout.
2) The offense isn't efficient in the passing game, as turnovers plague their production.
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