Trade analysis: Falcons swap two picks for Hayden Hurst, fourth-rounder

Was it worth giving up two picks?

Monday, the Falcons traded a 2020 second-round pick (the No. 55 pick acquired from New England in the Mohamed Sanu trade) and their own 2020 fifth-rounder for Ravens tight end Hayden Hurst and Baltimore's 2020 fourth-round selection.

Hurst was the 25th overall pick in the 2018 draft, and was supplanted as the lead catching option at tight end by Mark Andrews, who was a third-round pick in 2018 for the Ravens. Andrews developed a nice chemistry with quarterback Lamar Jackson last season and Baltimore's overall depth at the position made Hurst expendable despite the high ceiling of the former first-rounder. 

The obvious reason for the move from Atlanta's perspective is the loss of Austin Hooper. The argument "Why not just draft a tight end?" has it's flaws, for potential skeptics. The Falcons are still trying to win now, with Matt Ryan and Julio Jones in their prime. They probably don't want to gamble that a rookie will be able to fit in the offense and contribute right away. Even if they took a tight end with their No. 16 selection (firmly would not advise), there's still no guarantee that player will be up to speed by September, or whenever the NFL starts this year. 

Hurst was a quality run blocker for the Ravens run-heavy scheme, and has the ability to get downfield as well as run the intermediate routes over the middle. He posted a receiving grade of 77.3 per PFF, only three points lower than the 80.5 mark posted by Austin Hooper in 2019. 

Essentially, one way to look at this trade is that the Falcons swapped the worst of their two second-round picks for Hurst in exchange for moving up from the fifth to the fourth round, where they will now be able to pick twice or package an extra pick to move up the board. While they lost a little draft capital overall, they did fill a hole while moving up later on the draft. In all likelihood, Atlanta would have drafted a tight end at some point, so while they get Hurst two years into his career, and thus two years closer to free agency, they don't have to worry about bringing a rookie all the way up to speed. 

Matt Ryan's prime is not going to last forever, so there is something to be said for going to get him a needed weapon at a relatively fair price. With little cap space to make the move in free agency, the only other options for acquiring a tight end were either a trade or drafting a rookie and hoping you're able to plug-and-play without any major headaches. The Falcons were able to fill the void left by Hooper with a quality talent while maintaining a solid arsenal of picks for next month's draft. All things considered, this move should not be what stops Atlanta from competing in 2020.