NFL Win Projections: Falcons Finish Over .500?

Can the Atlanta Falcons win over seven games for the first time since 2017?

With training camp and preseason in full swing, win projections finally hold some weight. 

CBS had a projected win total for each NFL team, then predicted if they would finish over or under that projection. For the Atlanta Falcons, the line was set at 8.5 wins, and CBS picked the over. 

"If this is a top-half defense (not out of the question) and the offense works the way Smith wants it to, the Falcons are a sneaky team to win a ton of games, owed in large part to the easiest schedule in the NFL," CBS Sports writes.

The Falcons' defense should be one of the most improved next season after adding safety Jessie Bates III, plus defensive linemen Calais Campbell and David Onyemata. Atlanta was 23rd in points allowed per game, 31st in sacks and tied for 27th in interceptions.

Saying Atlanta has the easiest schedule isn't completely overstated. The Falcons only face three teams that made the playoffs last season, and one of those opponents, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, has uncertainty at quarterback. 

Other tough opponents that missed the playoffs last season include the Detroit Lions, Washington Commanders and New York Jets.

If the Falcons are going to win over seven games for the first time since 2017, they have their own question to answer at quarterback with Desmond Ridder. 

"The Falcons being a run-heavy team with Bijan Robinson leading the way and Desmond Ridder just finding "ways to win" while throwing to Kyle Pitts and Drake London is something that interests me from an offensive perspective," CBS Sports writes.

Atlanta winning over 8.5 games will come down to the play of Ridder. If he can lead the offense and running back Bijan Robinson lives up to enormous expectations, the Falcons should hit the over and have a chance to win the NFC South for the first time since 2016. 

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