ESPN Betting Against 'Very Fraudulent' Atlanta Falcons

ESPN's latest Best Bets column thinks it's time to sell on the Atlanta Falcons whose "fraudulent" record will be exposed by the Seattle Seahawks.

Atlanta Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins isn't listening to all the haters. / Brett Davis-Imagn Images

The Atlanta Falcons are 4-2 and sitting on top of the NFC South. They've won three-straight, all against divisional opponents, and take on the 3-3 Seattle Seahawks on Sunday at Mercedes-Benz Stadium

The Seahawks have dropped their last three after a 3-0 start and are 3.0-point underdogs according to ESPN.

ESPN NFL Analyst Ben Solak does a weekly "Best Bets" column including lines, props, etc., and he thinks the Seahawks are one of Week 7's best bets.

Solak begins the justification for his pick by taking the naysayer's view of Atlanta's schedule to date.

"I've been looking for my spot to fade the Falcons, and I think this is it," Solak wrote on ESPN+. "The win against the Carolina Panthers last week was nice, as all wins over the Panthers should be. But besides that win, the Falcons have an overtime victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers that never should have been, a game-winning field goal over the New Orleans Saints set up by a DPI and a game-winning drive against the Philadelphia Eagles that never should have been, either.

"Their 4-2 record feels very fraudulent."

Goodness.

No, that wasn't your typical X troll, but Solak is definitely feeding them. The Atlanta Falcons have been on the wrong side of so-many improbable outcomes, including a pretty high-profile game in January of 2017, that the scales haven't even begun to tip in their favor.

If any team in the NFL knows the feeling of certain victory turning into defeat, it's the Atlanta Falcons. We even have a word for it here in Atlanta - "Falconing."

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Good teams make plays to win games, and bad teams find ways to lose them. Anyone ask why the Carolina Panthers or New England Patriots or Cleveland Browns don't have a bushel of comeback wins against playoff teams? Because they're not good enough to be in position or take advantage of other teams' mistakes.

The Falcons are good enough.

Get a pass interference against the Chiefs and don't self-destruct against the Steelers, and this team is 6-0. See how easy it is to play that game?

The wording on his initial comments is interesting: "I've been looking for my spot to fade the Falcons." Well, we call that bias. People who are looking to find the best or worst in someone or something, tend to find it.

Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins is coming two games in which he's thrown for 734 yards and five touchdowns with just one interceptions. Yet, Cousins is a big reason why Solak is selling on the Falcons.

"The Falcons are still dealing with a limited quarterback in Kirk Cousins," wrote Solak. "He took more pistol snaps in the Week 6 game against the Panthers than he had in any other game this season, and his pistol rate has been climbing in each of the past five weeks as his under-center rate falls. The Falcons don't trust Cousins to move, they don't run boot action, and a whopping 94% of Cousins' throws have come from within the pocket this year."

Solak reasons that the Seahawks ability to generate pressure (38.4% on drop back passes) will be rewarded with sacks against a quarterback who isn't going to scramble. A fair point, and one the Falcons will look to counter with the run and quick passes.

The Seahawks are getting healthier, including the return of rookie defensive tackle Byron Murphy, but they're still missing two cornerbacks. Seattle got off to their 3-0 start against the Denver Broncos with a rookie quarterback making is first start, and the Miami Dolphins and New England Patriots, two of the worst teams in football.

If we want to talk about fraudulent records, the Seahawks' 3-0 start was as good an indicator of the team's future success as the New Orleans Saints shooting out of the gate at 2-0.

There's nothing fraudulent about the Atlanta Falcons. They have a potent offense with an opportunistic defense. They've been playing soft underneath giving up the run and short passes, but limiting the big play. They have a serious weakness in getting after the quarterback that Geno Smith and the Seahawks could exploit.

Seattle has a legit chance to come into Mercedes-Benz Stadium and walk out with a win on Sunday. They're a dangerous team with a high-volume quarterback and stout rushing attack behind Kenneth Walker.

The Seahawks getting a win would validate that they're a legitimate playoff threat in the NFC. They're a good football team capable of beating another good football team.

The Falcons getting a the win would do the same. There's nothing fraudulent about that.

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