ESPN Predictions Split on Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints

The New Orleans Saints have lost seven in a row, and the Atlanta Falcons have won five out of six. This seems like it should be an easy decision, but never is in this rivalry.

Atlanta Falcons cornerback Dee Alford celebrates a pass break up in the Falcons victory over the New Orleans Saints last time they met. / Brett Davis-Imagn Images

The New Orleans Saints came flying out of the gates with blowout victories over the Carolina Panthers and Dallas Cowboys to start the season. Then a funny thing happened; it's two months later, and they haven't won another game.

The Atlanta Falcons got off to a slow start in a bizarre Week 1 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, but are 6-2 since and have a firm grasp on the NFC South.

The Saints fired their coach this week, shipped off one of the only players they could financially afford to take off layaway, lost their best receiver to another concussion, and in general, look like a sinking ship.

The predictions on this one should be easy right?

Well, it is the Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints we're talking about. The Falcons should take care of business on Sunday afternoon in the Big Easy, but beware of New Orleans voodoo and the new coach bump.

ESPN's three-person panel of writers is split on their predictions, and ESPN Gamecast gives the Falcons just a 51.8% chance of winning. With the line set at Falcons -3.5, this game is essentially a pick 'em according to the oddsmakers.

The Falcons Podcast: WATCH | Spotify | Apple Pods

NFL reporter Kalyn Kahler, fantasy analyst Eric Moody, and analytics writer Seth Walder came to a 2-1 split decision in favor of the Falcons when picking Sunday's game.

Kahler's pick: Falcons 34, Saints 24
Moody's pick: Falcons 38, Saints 21
Walder's pick: Saints 24, Falcons 23
FPI prediction: ATL 51.8% (by an average of 0.6 points)

Last week Kahler and Moody correctly chose the Falcons over the Cowboys while Walder took the loss for the first time since he last picked the Saints over the Falcons. Moody leads the pack at 5-3 when picking Falcons games, while Kahler and Moody are 4-4.

Walder includes a bold prediction every week week in this feature, and he hit last week by saying Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts wouldn't surpass 25-yards receiving. This week, it's Falcons right tackle Kaleb McGary as Walder's target.

"Bold prediction: Saints defensive lineman Carl Granderson will put up a sack," wrote Walder. "Falcons right tackle Kaleb McGary has just an 82% pass block win rate, which ranks 59th out of 67 qualifying tackles, and Granderson typically lines up on that side."

The Atlanta Falcons offense struggled last time out against the Saints' defense, but Kirk Cousins and his band of merry men have hit their stride since then. Since getting blanked by the Saints in Week 4, Cousins has thrown 13 touchdowns against three interception, and the Falcons have averaged 29.2 points in five games.

Moody is more bullish on Atlanta's chances of moving the ball this week after failing to score an offensive touchdown in the 26-24 Week 4 win.

"Falcons wide receiver Darnell Mooney is in a great spot, regardless of Drake London's status because of a hip injury," wrote Moody. "The Saints' defense is allowing the fifth-most receiving yards to wide receivers, and Mooney has had 18 or more fantasy points in consecutive games."

Sending Marshon Lattimore to the Commanders at the trade deadline probably doesn't help the Saints' porous-pass defense.

Logically speaking, this one shouldn't be close. But when did logic and the Atlanta Falcons ever go hand in hand. However, this is a new Falcons team. A team that has found ways to win games multiple times this season instead of finding ways to lose them.

If the Falcons can jump on New Orleans early, the Saints team that has lost seven in a row will fold up shop and take another step to the offseason. If they let the Saints hang around, or worse, fall behind early, anything goes.

The last time the Falcons faced the Saints, they had linebacker Troy Andersen put up an NFC Defensive Player of the Week performance. Andersen is due back in the lineup for the first time since that game.

Andersen's presence emboldens an otherwise passive scheme from defensive coordinator Jimmy Lake to be more aggressive.

Cousins and the offense have figured things out and have multiple ways of moving the ball.

Atlanta takes care of its business in the Big Easy.

Atlanta Falcons: 30
New Orleans Saints: 20

Follow FalconsSI on FACEBOOK | X | YouTube

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.