Examining Hayden Hurst's Ceiling As A Fantasy Option

How will tight end Hayden Hurst fair in his first season with the Atlanta Falcons?

There might be more great tight ends in today's NFL than at any other point in the history of the league. Yet, the position remains the shallowest and most fickle in fantasy football.

In standard scoring formats last year, 25 running backs and 17 wide receivers averaged a double-digit output per week. But at tight end, not a single player posted 10 points on average in non-PPR formats.

That does two things to the position. First, it raises the value of the elite players that exist at the position. Secondly, it makes most of the rest of the pack interchangeable. 

If owners aren't going to ensure they land Travis Kelce, George Kittle, Mark Andrews or Zach Ertz, then they might as well search for the tight end that offers the next-greatest return on their investment based on average draft position (ADP). With a potentially very high ceiling at an affordable price, Atlanta Falcons tight end Hayden Hurst appears to be offering great value in fantasy drafts this fall.

The Falcons traded a second-round pick to Baltimore for Hurst this offseason. He played two seasons for the Ravens, but couldn't carve out a major role because of the other tight ends on the roster. (Most notably Andrews, who scored 10 touchdowns during Lamar Jackson's MVP campaign.)

Hurst arrives in Atlanta as a replacement for Pro-Bowl tight end Austin Hooper, who signed with the Cleveland Browns in free agency. Hooper recorded 75 catches for 787 yards and six touchdowns in 13 games last year. His 9.0 fantasy points per game in standard leagues ranked fourth at tight end behind only Kelce, Kittle and Andrews.

Can Hurst immediately replace Hooper? That's the million-dollar question. 

Hurst posted 30 receptions for 349 yards and two touchdowns in 2019. Those are respectable numbers that look even more impressive when considering he only received 39 targets. His 8.9 yards per target average just slightly trailed Kelce, who averaged 9.0 yards per target in 2019.

He may not be able to maintain that average with twice as many targets, but his yards- per-target average suggests that with more opportunities, Hurst will be a bonafide TE1.

It seems like a foregone conclusion that Hurst will see at least 80 targets this fall, as Hooper received 97 last season despite missing three games. In total, the Falcons targeted tight ends on passing plays more than 7.5 times per week in 2019. In Matt Ryan's 12-year career, the Falcons' starting tight end has finished as a top-eight PPR scoring option at the position seven times.

Based on the consensus expert rankings at Fantasy Pros, Hurst is the No. 9 tight end and 87th overall player heading into the season, yet he possesses a 114.0 ADP. He's been going early in drafts over the last week, but Hurst still presents fantasy owners tremendous value, going on average two and a half rounds after he should.

That's the type of value owners should love at a fickle position such as tight end. But even when taking draft value out of the discussion, Hurst's success in a small sample combined with the Falcons' trends at tight end indicate Hurst's fantasy ceiling is very high. He likely won't be a top-tier tight end like Kelce or Kittle, but a finish as high as fifth or sixth at his position this season is certainly possible.