Kirk Cousins MVP Case is Stronger than You Might Think

After Week 9, the Atlanta Falcons have one-less win than they had after 18 weeks in 2024. A big reason why is the play of quarterback Kirk Cousins.

Atlanta Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins has played himself into NFL's MVP consideration. / Brett Davis-Imagn Images

The 2023 Atlanta Falcons finished the NFL season 22nd in passing yards and 26th in passing touchdowns. 

Write a check, Mr. Blank.

We’re now talking about Kirk Cousins being third in the NFL in passing yards (2,328) and tied for 4th in the NFL in passing touchdowns (17). We’re talking about how he deserves to be in the discussion with 2x NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, & 2x NFL MVP Lamar Jackson.

Added context, a quarterback has been NFL MVP every year since Adrian Peterson went barbarically nuclear for the 2012 Vikings (Peterson rushed for 2,097 yards, only the 7th player to ever surpass 2,000 yards in a season. He averaged 6.0 yards per carry, tying Houston Oilers legend Earl Campbell for the most 150-yard games in a season with seven).

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2024-2025 NFL MVP Betting Odds at Publishing

*Odds are According to FanDuel

• Josh Allen & Lamar Jackson +300
• Patrick Mahomes +450
• Jared Goff & Jayden Daniels +800
• Jalen Hurts & Joe Burrow +1600
• Kirk Cousins +2500

Statistical SparkNotes Shall we?

• Josh Allen (7-2) - 2,001 passing yards, 17 TDs, 2 INT, 47 carries, 211 rushing yards, 3 TD

• Lamar Jackson (6-3) - 2,379 passing yards, 20 TDs, 2 INT, 84 carries, 505 rushing yards, 2 TD

• Patrick Mahomes (8-0) - 1,942 passing yards, 11 TDs, 9 INT, 36 carries, 148 rushing yards, 1 TD

• Jared Goff (7-1) - 1,840 passing yards, 14 TDs, 4 INT, 17 carries, 16 rushing yards

• Jayden Daniels (7-2) - 1,945 passing yards, 9 TDs, 2 INT, 82 carries, 459 rushing yards, 4 TD

• Jalen Hurts (6-2) - 1,774 passing yards, 10 TD, 4 INT, 86 carries, 322 rushing yards, 8 TD

• Joe Burrow (4-5) - 2,244 passing yards, 20 TD, 4 INT, 27 carries, 117 rushing yards, 1 TD

• Kirk Cousins (6-3) - 2,328 passing yards, 17 TD, 7 INT, 18 carries, -3 rushing yards

Okay, Fair Enough

Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are playing on another planet right now. They always do. No arguments, particularly their dominant rushing numbers on top of Cousins, he can’t hang.

Lamar Jackson is top-two in every major passing category & is a top 10 statistical running back in the NFL were you to put him there. Lamar would become the 6th post-merger back-to-back MVP, joining Joe Montana, Brett Favre, Peyton Manning (2 separate times), & Aaron Rodgers. 

Through 9 games, he’s better this year …

2023: 

• 9:3 TD-INT ratio
• 266 yards per game
• 7.7 yards per pass attempt

2024: 

• 20:2 TD-INT ratio
• 320 yards per game
• 9.3 yards per pass attempt

If Lamar were to win the MVP, it would be his third by age 27. Tom Brady didn’t win an MVP in his 20s. Yes, you read that right.

Now let’s play a narrative for a second versus quantitative data and record: Quite a nice response by Josh Allen to Stefon Diggs’s drama and eventful exit …

Pat Mahomes has it all - MVPs and Super Bowl rings. Lamar Jackson has MVPs and works on the rings. Put some bling on Josh Allen this year, it’s time. 

We mentioned Mahomes. But, must we remember, the MVP is an annual award, not a Lifetime Achievement Award. Yes, the Chiefs are 8-0. It is incredible. Yes, Mahomes is killing it as always. Yes, he has played one less game than Kirk Cousins this year.

Having said that, that does not affect his aDoT comparing 6.4 yards to Cousins’s 7.6. Mahomes has more interceptions as well while only having 1 more Big-Time Throw. Entering Monday Night Football, the broadcast revealed Mahomes had the worst completion percentage in the NFL on throws 20+ yards downfield. 

To Be Determined

Until the Bengals “turn it around”, it is hypothetical. Even Joe Burrow can’t will the Bengals to a .500 record thus far. That locker room is confused and Burrow himself is visibly frustrated. Burrow is the most interesting “how does it change down the stretch” of this group to watch. Joe Burrow is playing the best football of his career from an individual standpoint. A few key rankings after 9 weeks:

• Big Time Throw / Turnover Worthy Play rate - 4.0 (#1)
• Success Rate - 53.1% (#2)
• Adj. EPA / Play - 0.24 (#4)

Go on a run, and he could be the MVP.

Before everyone points to Jayden Daniels’s rushing yards, in terms of total yards from scrimmage (2,404), Cousins is right there (2,325). Like C.J. Stroud’s rookie year, Daniels will keep responding. His play of the year is the game-winning Hail Mary to beat the Chicago Bears.

What will he do next week? He completed every deep pass (20+ air yards) he threw against the Giants, finishing 3 of 3 for 91 yards and a TD. Having just mentioned C.J. Stroud’s historic 2023 rookie season as a fellow #2 overall pick, it is a recent “historic” note working against Daniels.

2023 Stroud: 319-499 (63.9%), 4275 total yards from scrimmage (including rushing), 26 total TD, 5 INT

2024 Daniels pace: 308-431 (71.5%), 4541 total yards from scrimmage (including rushing), 24.5 TD, 4 INT

C.J. Stroud did all that statistically and took a team from the #2 pick to a playoff win. He finished 9th in the MVP voting, receiving 4 5th-place votes on his way to an Offensive Rookie of the Year. Similar path ahead for Daniels.

Not So Fast My Friend

Short and sweet: I don’t get it having Jalen Hurts a whole -900 better odds than Cousins. Yes, the Eagles are 7-2. They are always 7-2. Fans awkwardly want head coach Nick Sirianni gone. Hurts’s season pace statistically:

Hurts: 4,454 total yards from scrimmage, 38 total TD, 8.5 INT

Cousins: 4,391 total yards from scrimmage, 32 total TD, 13 INT

The 6-3 Falcons have not won more than 7 games in a season since 2017. While I’m at it being a hater, the “Tush Push” is big-time inflating. While fans call for Sirianni's head, the Falcons’ fan base has not buzzed like this, again, since 2017.

Detroit had the story tale year last year and is the real “America’s Team” at this point. I get it, I have joined them. I’ve watched Detroit do nothing but suffer my entire life. Having said all that, sprinkle some of that on Atlanta. Example? Explain to me Jared Goff getting NFC Offensive Player of the Month over Kirk Cousins. 

• In October, the 30-year-old Goff completed 80% of his passes (52-of-65 passing) for 680 yards and eight touchdowns, going 3-0.
• In October, the 36-year-old Cousins completed 71% of his passes (108-152 passing) for 1242 yards and 10 touchdowns, going 3-1.

“But Cousins played an extra game!” Yes, he did. 

Per Game Average:

Goff - 227 yards, 2.7 touchdowns

Cousins - 311 yards, 2.5 touchdowns, .75 INT

“Yeah, but who did they play?” Thanks for asking.

Goff - Titans (2-7), Cowboys (3-5), and Vikings (6-2). One battle (albeit a great one).

Cousins - Bucs 2x (4-5 following Chiefs OT loss), Panthers (2-7), Seahawks (4-5)

Composite opponent record:

Goff - 11 Wins, 14 losses

Cousins - 10 Wins, 17 losses

This Lions team went to the NFC Championship last year. Again, the Falcons have not won more than 7 games in a season since 2017.

So tell me again why Jared Goff is a full -1800 odds better than future 2024 NFL Comeback Player of the Year Kirk Cousins? 

I’ll wait. 

Most Valuable Player seems to go to the quarterback on the league's best team. But when it comes to actual value, when it comes to impact, Kirk Cousins ticks both boxes and has the numbers to back it up.

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