Overreacting to the Falcons 'Easy' Schedule

ESPN’s Dan Graziano argued that fans are overreacting to the perceived easy schedule for the Atlanta Falcons.

Atlanta Falcons head coach Raheem Morris / Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Based on opponents win percentage from last season, the Atlanta Falcons are tied with the easiest strength of schedule in the NFL for 2024. But as I say every year, the NFL schedule is a lot more complicated than your opponent’s previous year combined winning percentage.

ESPN’s Dan Graziano argued that and wrote on May 15 that the Falcons having a cake walk to an NFC title because of their schedule is an overreaction.

“The Falcons had the easiest strength of schedule last season, too, and they went 7-10,” wrote Graziano. “The main reason for this is that the 'strength of schedule' metric we're referring to here is bogus. Basing such an assessment on last year's records ignores the repeatedly proven fact that the same teams aren't good every season. 

“We don't actually know who has the toughest strength of schedule in terms of quality of opponent, because we don't know who's going to get hurt and who's going to struggle and who's going to break out.”

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Graziano’s argument is more than fair. But Atlanta’s 7-10 record against the easiest strength of schedule last year is deeper than simply the misleading nature of the “strength of schedule” metric.

The Falcons lost to eight non-playoff teams last season, including the Washington Commanders, Tennessee Titans, Arizona Cardinals, and Carolina Panthers. Excluding their wins against Atlanta, those teams went 12-52 (.188 win percentage) in 2023.

The difference, of course, between the 2023 Falcons and this year’s team will be at quarterback. Veteran Kirk Cousins should be able to take advantage of the softer schedule, which the combination of Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke under Arthur Smith were unable to do.

But it could still be a slow start for the Falcons. Four of the team’s first five games are against playoff opponents. The one that isn’t is the New Orleans Saints’ visit to Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

Atlanta’s “easiest” game in the first five weeks is arguably the season opener against the Pittsburgh Steelers. But history won’t be on the Falcons’ side in that contest.

The Falcons hold an all-time record of 2-15-1 versus the Steelers. They’ve beaten Pittsburgh once since 1971. Having Smith with the Steelers as the offensive coordinator only adds to the drama, and is probably a big reason the NFL scheduled the Steelers in Atlanta Week 1.

Steelers fans are likely to take over Atlanta and Mercedes-Benz Stadium that weekend too. Cousins and company could be battling a hostile crowd at home in the season opener.

With a trip to Philadelphia, and then visits from the Kansas City Chiefs, Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers after that, it could be a rough start for the new Falcons quarterback and head coach Raheem Morris. 

After that, it will get much easier. The Falcons don’t face a 2023 playoff team after Week 9. A 7-1 or even 8-0 run to finish the season is possible, so a slow start won’t doom the team.

But that’s assuming the Falcons take advantage of their favorable second-half slate. Something that could require some patience if Atlanta gets off to a slow start.

Atlanta Falcons Schedule:

Preseason:

Week 1 - Aug. 9: At Miami Dolphins, 7 p.m. kickoff

Week 2 - Aug. 17: At Baltimore Ravens, noon kickoff

Week 3 - Aug. 23: Vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, 7 p.m. kickoff

Regular Season:

Week 1 - Sept. 8: Vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, 1 p.m. kickoff

Week 2 - Sept. 16 - Monday Night Football: At Philadelphia Eagles, 8:15 p.m. kickoff

Week 3 - Sept. 22 - Sunday Night Football: Vs. Kansas City Chiefs, 8:20 p.m. kickoff

Week 4 - Sept. 29: Vs. New Orleans Saints, 1 p.m. kickoff

Week 5 - Oct. 3 - Thursday Night Football: Vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 8:15 p.m. kickoff

Week 6 - Oct. 13: At Carolina Panthers, 4:25 p.m. kickoff

Week 7 - Oct. 20: Vs. Seattle Seahawks, 1 p.m. kickoff

Week 8 - Oct. 27: At Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 1 p.m. kickoff

Week 9 - Nov. 3: Vs. Dallas Cowboys, 1 p.m. kickoff

Week 10 - Nov. 10: At New Orleans Saints, 1 p.m. kickoff

Week 11 - Nov. 17: At Denver Broncos, 4:05 p.m. kickoff

Week 12 - Nov. 24: Bye Week

Week 13 - Dec. 1: Vs. Los Angeles Chargers, 1 p.m. kickoff

Week 14 - Dec. 8: At Minnesota Vikings, 1 p.m. kickoff

Week 15 - Dec. 16 - Monday Night Football: At Las Vegas Raiders, 8:40 p.m. kickoff

Week 16 - Dec. 22: Vs. New York Giants, 1 p.m. kickoff

Week 17 - Dec. 28/29 (TBD): At Washington Commanders, TBD

Week 18 - Jan. 4/5 (TBD): Vs. Carolina Panthers, TBD