Will Falcons Make Playoffs? Odds, Projections, What Has to Happen

Here's the Atlanta Falcons' playoff scenarios, and the odds they make the postseason for the first time since 2017.

The Atlanta Falcons enter Week 18 with slim, but possible, playoff odds. / Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. -- The Atlanta Falcons finished their last regular season practice of the 2024 campaign Friday. They'll find out Sunday afternoon whether it was their last practice of the year entirely.

Atlanta (8-8) enters the final week of the regular season trailing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7) by one game for the NFC South lead. The Falcons swept the season series, taking wins in Week 5 and Week 8, and therefore own the tiebreaker.

In essence, Atlanta's path to the playoffs is simple: beat the Carolina Panthers (4-12) at 1 p.m. Sunday inside Mercedes-Benz Stadium and hope the New Orleans Saints (5-11) pull an unlikely road upset over the Buccaneers at the same time.

The odds both happen? Not great.

The Falcons have only a 13% chance of making the postseason, according toThe Athletic's projection model. Atlanta's odds are marginally better on ESPN, which puts the probability at 14.8%. For those interested in betting, the Falcons' moneyline to win the NFC South is +775, according to BetMGM.

Atlanta is expected to take care of business against Carolina. The Falcons are 7.5-point favorites, according to ESPN, which puts the team's money line at -400 with a 73.4% chance of victory.

The challenge comes in Tampa Bay, which hosts a struggling Saints squad playing with rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler, who's replacing the injured Derek Carr.

The Buccaneers are 14-point favorites Sunday and have a 79.7% chance to win, per ESPN, which puts Tampa Bay's money line at -1200.

And so, the Falcons are staring down the reality of missing the playoffs for the seventh consecutive season. There is, however, a chance -- and Atlanta will be breaking character Sunday by rooting for the archrival Saints, because it has no other choice.

"It's not a situation where we want to be in, but we've got an opportunity to still get in," safety Jessie Bates III said Wednesday. "We'll be Saints fans this week, for sure. I'm sure our fans won't be happy about me saying that, but that's the reality of it. Just got to embrace it."