Falcons' 6-3 Start Beginning to Look Like a Mirage

The Atlanta Falcons surged to a 6-3 start to begin the 2024 NFL season behind four victories in the NFC South.

Atlanta Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins / Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

A lot will be written during the Atlanta Falcons bye week about how the team can get back on track. But maybe the first question we should ask is whether the team was on the right track from the start.

Yes, the Falcons began the 2024 campaign with a 6-3 record. Those victories included a sweep of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers -- the team that has won the NFC South three consecutive years.

If that wasn't enough to be excited about, the 6-3 beginning to the campaign was Atlanta's best start since 2016. That was the last season the Falcons won a playoff game and went to the Super Bowl.

But through all that excitement, we didn't stop to think about the fact four of Atlanta's six victories were against the NFC South -- a division that hasn't produced a 10-win team since 2021.

The other two victories for the Falcons were against the lowly Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles. On paper, the Eagles is an excellent win for the Falcons resume. But it came thanks to a Saquon Barkley drop and then utter collapse from the Philadelphia defense in the 2-minute drill.

A win is a win is a win. Well, if that's the case, it's hard to ignore Atlanta's 2-4 record against non-division opponents. The Falcons are 4-1 inside the NFC South.

Over the final six weeks of the season, the Falcons only have one division game left -- the Carolina Panthers. That should be a win, but even owning all the tiebreakers with a 5-1 NFC South mark, the Falcons aren't going anywhere in January if they can't beat teams outside the division.

They might not even be able to hold onto the NFC South crown if they can't begin regularly beating opponents outside the division. The Buccaneers have three NFC South games left on their schedule along with matchups with the New York Giants, Las Vegas Raiders and Dallas Cowboys. They also play the Los Angeles Chargers.

But perhaps an even worse indicator than Atlanta's non-division record is how the team has fared against elite defenses. The Falcons own a 1-3 record versus a top 10 defense in terms of yards allowed this season. Their one win was against the Eagles.

Every other Falcons victory this season has come against a defense ranked 27th or worse in the league in yards allowed. The Buccaneers, who the Falcons so proudly swept, are 30th in total defense.

The Falcons split their season series with the New Orleans Saints, who are 31st in total defense. The Seattle Seahawks, who upset the Falcons about a month ago, are 22nd in total defense.

That really might not bode well for the Falcons the rest of the season. The only defense the Falcons will face during the stretch run that has given up more yards than the Seahawks are the Panthers. Two of Atlanta's remaining opponents -- the Chargers and Minnesota Vikings -- are top 10 in yards allowed.

The other three -- the Las Vegas Raiders, New York Giants and Washington Commanders -- are middle of the road in yards allowed defensively.

Falcons fans are counting on the Raiders and Giants. Beating those two teams plus a victory against Carolina gets Atlanta to at least nine wins.

But based on the team's first 11 games, it wouldn't be surprising if Kirk Cousins and the Falcons offense struggles against the Raiders and Giants. At the very least, I'm ready to predict the Buccaneers more easily defeat both those teams than the Falcons do.

Having said that, I'm not full-on panicking about this Falcons team. There's still time for them to break these trends.

The sample size, though, is large enough that I have my doubts.