Falcons' Margin for Error Razor Thin Entering Monday Night Matchup

The Atlanta Falcons could win the rest of their games and would still need help to make the 2024-25 NFL playoffs.

Atlanta Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins / Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

The Atlanta Falcons hold the tiebreaker against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC South. But that's meaningless unless the two teams finish with the same record.

The possibility of that happening took a significant hit before the Falcons played a down in Week 15.

On paper, Tampa Bay has one of the easiest schedules remaining in the NFL. But Sunday, they faced the previously 8-5 Los Angeles Chargers on the road.

That didn't matter, though, as the Buccaneers dismantled the Chargers 40-17. Baker Mayfield averaged 10.7 yards per pass and threw 4 touchdowns against the unit that's been ranked the NFL's No. 1 scoring defense for most of the season.

With the Buccaneers victory, the Falcons will enter their Monday night matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders 1.5 games behind Tampa Bay. Again, all they need to do to win the NFC South is catch the Buccaneers in the standings.

But to do that, the Falcons may have to win the rest of their games. That would mean the Falcons defeating not just the Raiders on the road Monday but also the New York Giants, Washington Commanders and Carolina Panthers.

The Falcons should be able to take care of business versus the Raiders, Giants and Panthers. The Commanders, though, will be a difficult road test on Dec. 29.

But even if the Falcons win all of those games, they still need the Buccaneers to lose once.

The best chance Atlanta had of Tampa Bay losing in the final four weeks was Sunday, and the Buccaneers won by 23. Tampa Bay will end the season against the Dallas Cowboys, Panthers and New Orleans Saints.

If the Falcons want to win the NFC South they now have to win out and hope the Buccaneers lose against at least one of the Cowboys, Panthers or Saints.

— Adnan Ikic (@SayWhichWay) December 16, 2024

Theoretically, the Falcons could still earn a wild card spot. If they finished 10-7, they'd have a decent chance of that happening.

But the Falcons would need help for a wild card berth too. The Falcons trail in the wild card race by 2.5 games entering Monday, and they would have to pass three teams to capture that spot.

Thanks to a 4-game losing streak, the Falcons' playoff hopes will be nearly on life support as they take the field in Week 15.