Factors Giants Are Likely Considering in Potential Quarterback Switch

The Giants' decision to bench Daniel Jones seems like a no-brainer, but the team's brass needs to consider other factors before making any official decision.

Nov 3, 2024; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones (8) stands with teammates during the national anthem before the game against the Washington Commanders at MetLife Stadium. / Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

To the frustrated New York Giants, who have seen enough of quarterback Daniel Jones's ineptness over the past five-plus seasons, the decision to bench him is a no-brainer and probably should have been made long ago.

But while it appears to be an easy decision given Jones’s play and the looming $23 million injury guarantee, when head coach Brian Daboll says there are things to be evaluated, that’s not him simply deferring the inevitable.

Here is a list of things that Daboll, general manager Joe Schoen, and team ownership (John Mara and Steve Tisch) are likely to chew over before making their decision public.

Sep 26, 2024; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones (8) reacts during the second quarter against the Dallas Cowboys at MetLife Stadium. / Brad Penner-Imagn Images

Is Jones Truly Beyond Repair?

As far as a growing majority of Giants fans and media are concerned, the answer to this question is a resounding yes. 

However, some might also point to how Jones succeeded in 2022 with Mike Kaffka calling the plays, raising the question of whether Daboll's idea of taking over the play-calling was wise.

At times, Daboll’s play calling and clock management this season have been a head-scratcher. 

But there have also been plenty of times when a well-designed, well-timed play was called because Jones, who, for as long as he’s been in New York, didn’t trust what he saw and delayed throwing the ball. This caused receivers to slow down or stop in their routes, limiting the potential for an explosive play.

Remember, Daboll is supposed to be a quarterback whisperer. One of the reasons he was hired was his work with Josh Allen in Buffalo and his creativity in play calling.

However, the situation in Buffalo was far different from what was waiting for him with the Giants. For starters, Allen came to Daboll straight out of college as a relatively unmolded lump of clay that Daboll could shape and guide toward becoming one of the better signal callers in the league.

Jones, on the other hand, was inherited after three seasons that were defined in part by injuries and a constant switch in coaches and systems to where the new brass of Daboll and Schoen opted not to roll the dice on Jones’s option year, a decision that was also driven in part at the time by the fact that he was coming off a season-ending neck injury.

But over the nearly last three seasons, Jones has, on a few occasions, looked like he can be the guy, but not nearly enough. Over his career, the Giants have averaged 18.68 points per game; under Daboll, that average is 17.9. 

Jones has had 26 games out of 69 in which he hasn’t thrown a touchdown, and he hasn’t thrown three or more touchdowns in a regular season game since December 22, 2019, when he threw five in a 42-28 win over the Washington Commanders.

Not all of that is Jones’s fault, but that said, the evidence has continued to stack up against Jones not just in the last few weeks but over the years, in which he has been inconsistent with postsnap reads and has missed some opportunities to make the plays he should be making at this point.

New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones (8) attempts to score on a 2-point conversion before being tackled by Washington Commanders linebacker Frankie Luvu (4) during a game between the New York Giants and the Washington Commanders at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford on Sunday, Nov. 3, 2024. / Julian Leshay Guadalupe/NorthJersey.com / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The $23 Million Injury Guarantee

Football is a business–we hear that from players, coaches, agents, and executives. Fundamentally sound football front offices often have to make business decisions that might not be well received in the locker room or, at times, by the fans but that are best for the organization in the long term.

In this case, Jones has a $23 million injury guarantee in his deal that, as the Daily News pointed out, extends to an injury on the field and any type of injury he suffers while on the team’s property.

Jones sometimes plays recklessly on the field, particularly as a runner, and he still struggles to slide at the end of his runs. He’s also been knocked down a league-leading 44 times, adding another potential risk to his long-term health. 

To continue putting him out there is taking an unnecessary risk because if that injury guarantee kicks in next year, any potential cap savings the team would gain by releasing Jones would be wiped out, potentially straining their cap space.  

That said, the Giants don’t necessarily have to go as far as to ban Jones from the property, even though there is always the risk of Jones getting hurt in practice or the weight room. 

If Jones truly wants to play, whether for the Giants or another team, it’s hard to fathom him going out of his way to injure himself just to stick it to the Giants.  

And as another little FYI, that injury guarantee can be reduced or eliminated through a re-negotiation and agreement by both parties. However, given his injury guarantee, it’s hard to see Jones agreeing to a tweak to his contract to help the team.

East Rutherford, NJ -- June 11, 2024 -- Quarterbacks Drew Lock and Tommy DeVito walk off at the end of the practice field at the NY Giants Mandatory Minicamp at their practice facility in East Rutherford, NJ. / Chris Pedota, NorthJersey.com / USA TODAY NETWORK

The Successor

This probably doesn’t get talked about enough because everyone automatically assumes that Drew Lock is the next man up if Jones is benched. But that assumption shouldn’t automatically be made for a couple of reasons.

First, Lock, in limited playing time back in the summer and this year, didn’t exactly set the world on fire. While it’s hard to know if he’s improved since–team practices are closed to the media, plus Daboll has also said in the past that he wasn’t adjusting the practice reps–Lock might not be the next man up even though he is No. 2 on the depth chart.

However, a bigger reason to contemplate whether to go with Lock or Tommy DeVito is financial. Lock’s one-year $5 million contract also includes an additional $3 million in incentives based on playing time, performance, and team success.

New York Giants QB Drew Lock's contract incentives / Dan Duggan/The Athletic (via X)

While it’s highly unlikely Lock, if he’s named the starter, will hit all of the incentives in his contract, it needs to be remembered that the Giants cap space, even after cutting cornerback Nick McCloud to save about $1 million, is still in a precarious state.

Per Over the Cap, the Giants have $2.936 million remaining in space, which they’re counting on to get through the rest of the season. That money will be used for practice squad elevations and any injury replacements that come up out of nowhere.

If the Giants were to turn to Lock, at best, he could end up with the passer rating, pass completion, and game snaps incentives, $750,000 of which would come out of the cap.

For comparison purposes, last year with the Seahawks, Lock played 60% of the offensive snaps, had a 63.2% completion percentage, and an 81.2 passer rating.  

In the final analysis, if Lock and DeVito are equal regarding their respective progress, choosing DeVito probably makes more financial sense.

"I've said this before, (Senior Vice President and General Manager) Joe (Schoen) and I communicate with our ownership group on a daily basis," Daboll said when asked about the finances.

"Not just about the quarterback, but about every position. So, there's good communication there. We'll do what we normally do. If there are any changes, regardless of the position, we'll always communicate."

Giants Head Coach Brian Daboll is shown after his team lost 17-7 against the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday, October 13, 2024, in East Rutherford. / Kevin Wexler-NorthJersey.com / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Bottom Line 

The Giants aren’t mathematically eliminated from the postseason yet, but it’s safe to say that no one who follows this team plans to delay any upcoming vacations after the locker room doors close for the final time this season.  

Ideally, the Giants may have wanted to continue with Jones for as long as they had a chance for a playoff berth, but they just can’t anymore, not just because they’re on a five-game losing streak.

If Daboll wants to win, the change has to be made now so that the coaches can tweak the playbook to give the new quarterback the best chance to succeed.  

"Again, we'll go back, and we'll evaluate everything and decide what we want to do here," Daboll said, continuing to shed any insight into his thought process. "We've got a week to go ahead and really dig into this."

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