Former NFL Agent Forecasts Likely Contract for Saquon Barkley

It all comes down to the guaranteed money.

New York Giants running back Saquon Barkley would like to remain a Giant for life and receive what he considers a fair financial compensation package.

Unfortunately, neither of them looks likely, not so long as the Giants insist on digging their heels in regarding the guaranteed money, which is the sticking point in most contract negotiations.

To recap, the Giants last year reportedly offered Barkley a deal averaging $13 million per year that included $19.5 million guaranteed. The guaranteed money was increased to just over $22 million, but the deal wasn't consummated because it's believed the guaranteed money didn't cover the sum of 2023 and 2024 franchise tags plus a little extra on top, as is usually the practice.

Barkley eventually signed the one-year modified franchise tag, but because the team didn't reach the postseason, the incentives in the modified deal weren't reached.

This year, the Giants and Barkley seem back in the same boat in that the Giants may not be willing to pony up enough guaranteed money to make a deal come together, given Bakrley's age and injury history. While the team and Barkley's agent met last week at the combine in what was characterized as a good meeting, it's assumed that the two sides value the running back's worth quite differently.

That all being said, CBS Sports columnist and former NFL agent Joel Corry believes a three-year deal worth $33 million, including $23 million total guarantees, $20 million of which is fully guaranteed at signing, will get the deal done.

Barkley played the 2023 season on a $10.091 million franchise tag last season in which $909,000 worth of incentives were added for a maximum of $11 million after he and the Giants couldn't get a deal done before the mid-July deadline for franchise players to sign multi-year contract years despite initially starting negotiations during the middle of the 2022 season. He reportedly rejected a three-year offer in the $11 million-per-year neighborhood with $22 million to $23 million in guarantees at this deadline. These sides were apparently within $2 million of what Barkley was looking for to consummate a deal.

If the reports are accurate that the Giants and Barkley were off by a mere $2 million, that's not only a headscratcher but also a sign that Schoen doesn't intend to move off what he's budgeted for any player.

That said, Corry believes that if Barkley were to get what he rejected last July, it would "be a major victory for him," given the running back climate in which a flooded market at the position is unlikely to score big money like some other positions. 

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