New York Giants 2023 UFA Primer: WR Sterling Shepard

Sterling Shepard hasn't had much luck with staying injury free of late, but he's made no secret of wanting another chance at it to finish his career with the Giants.

Sterling Shepard, Wide Receiver

Height: 5-foot-10
Weight: 196 lbs.
Age: 29
NFL Exp: 7 years
College: Oklahoma

Some people knew him as the team’s sideline cheerleader this past season; others know him as the New York Giants’ seventh-year wide receiver who is on the comeback route from an ACL tear and looking to secure a new covenant with the organization this offseason.

Sterling Shepard, 29 and native of Oklahoma City, joined the Giants in 2016 when he was selected 40th overall by the team in the second round of that year’s draft out of the University of Oklahoma. A four-year starter with the Sooners, he accumulated 49 career games with 233 receptions for 3,482 yards, 26 touchdowns, and 14.9 yards per catch. 

His collegiate production improved every season by his senior year. It helped him become the fifth wide receiver selected from the draft pool and signed a four-year, $5.94 million rookie contract.

Going into his rookie campaign, the Giants named Shepard a starting receiver, and he produced with 16 games played and 65 receptions for 683 yards, eight touchdowns (career-high), and an average of 10.5 yards per catch. That outing earned him a spot on the PFWA All-Rookie Team, helped New York make it to the playoffs, and would be followed up by a career-best performance in 2018 when he had 66 receptions for 872 yards and four touchdowns.

Before the 2019 season, Shepard and the Giants agreed to a four-year, $41 million extension with 21.3 million guaranteed through the 2022 season. In 10 games played, he posted two contests with 100+ yards receiving and finished with 57 receptions for 576 yards and three touchdowns. He also rushed for 72 yards in that span, a career-high running the football.

The 2021 and 2022 seasons would be when Shepard’s playing career began to hit some obstacles. In the former campaign, Shepard suffered a season-ending Achilles injury in Week 15 that capped his resume at a disappointing 36 receptions for 366 yards and one score in seven games. He returned in time for the following season, but this time would tear his ACL in a Week 3 loss to the Cowboys.

2022 Recap

At the start of the 2022 season, the New York Giants had reason to be a little more excited with the state of their offense, particularly at the wide receiver position.

Among the several players they were bringing back, Sterling Shepard was returning from an ACL injury as the team’s veteran receiver and looking to offer a consistent weapon from the slot position. The Giants also pulled a solid prospect out of the draft in Wan’Dale Robinson, who they hoped would add another speedy threat across the field alongside Shepard and company.

Like the sun's rising and setting, in came the annual injury bugs again to claim multiple names, including the 29-year-old receiver. In the Giants’ Week 3 primetime bout against the Dallas Cowboys, Shepard caught five balls on ten targets for 49 yards and an average of 9.8 per catch, but in the fourth quarter, he tore his left ACL and was subsequently ruled out for the remainder of the season.

The injury would cap Shepard’s seventh NFL season at 13 receptions for 154 yards (11.8 average) and a touchdown, the lowest stat line of his professional career. His best outing came in the season opener against Tennessee when he tallied two receptions on four targets for 71 yards and a touchdown to help the Giants win 21-20. After failing to cross the 200-yard receiving mark for the first time, Shepard was on the sidelines to support his teammates in a special way.

Despite being unable to perform any physical activities with the team, head coach Brian Daboll elected to have his veteran leader remain around the team each week. From helping other receivers at practice to hyping guys up during pregame warmups, Shepard found himself a new niche that was as valuable and telling of his character as his contributions on the gridiron.

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GIANTS UFA PRIMERS: QB Daniel Jones | IOL Nick Gates | RB Saquon Barkley | C Jon Feliciano | IDL Justin Ellis | RB Matt Breida | LS Casey Kreiter | OLB Jihad Ward

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Why the Giants Should Keep Him

The most recent numbers are what they show due to his consecutive bouts with ACL injuries, but there are some good gems in Sterling Shepard’s production if you look more closely.

In the forefront, the wide receiver has four seasons with at least 59 receptions and 650 yards receiving, including three campaigns with at least three touchdowns, meaning he has been a pretty active contributor to the Giants’ offense over the years.

Beyond that, he has averaged double-digit yardage per catch, hauled in a pass of at least 30 yards, and completed at least 20 first downs in six seasons, providing the unit with a weapon that can make big catches, thread the needle against oncoming tacklers and gain the important conversions throughout a game.

Shepard’s intangibles aren’t limited to one area of the field, either. In his 2,895 total snaps, the Oklahoma product has played 1,840 (63.6%) from the slot, and 1,035 (35.8%) from out wide and has three seasons with at least 127 snaps from each position despite those numbers leaning more towards the former in recent campaigns.

He can run a diverse tree of routes from short comebacks to jet sweeps and deeper range posts and be trusted to secure the catch, holding a contested catch rate of 50% or better four times and a drop percentage under 13.3% his entire career. Often he will evade tacklers and churn extra yardage as well, with an average of 4.0 yards after catch and 37 total missed tackles forced after a reception in that span.

Being one of the oldest players on the Giants’ offense enables Shepard to understand what it takes to grow and succeed in the New York market and league and pass it down to his younger teammates. Since he was drafted in 2016, he has seen the highs and the lows of the organization's recent past. He can use that to advise the other receivers in his circle on how to handle adversity and challenges individually and collectively.

Not to mention that is no player itching more to help his team reach the mountaintop again than Shepard, who's spent the two seasons watching everything unfold from the sidelines.

Most of all, Shepard is simply a beloved member of the Giants’ franchise, and his presence throughout the past season following his injury proved it. Brian Daboll said he and the coaching staff wanted Shepard around the team to mentor and support his teammates despite his inability to participate, a surefire sign that he is viewed as an instrumental piece in the culture that is continuing to mold itself at 1925 Giants Drive.

Why the Giants Shouldn’t Keep Him

Like a few of the other unrestricted free agents on the list this offseason, the biggest concern with retaining Sterling Shepard is the potential for his injury history to place limits on his athleticism and effectiveness once he returns to the active roster.

He's already had an Achilles injury, which he recovered from. But then he suffered a torn ACL, and it's fair to wonder if any remaining speed and quickness he had is no more.

On the financial side, per Over the Cap, the Giants currently sit with a projected 2023 cap space of $44.3 million, with the league’s salary cap rising to a record $224.8 million per club.

Shepard had a void year placed on his previous contract that stretched his pro-rated bonus of $4.245 million into the upcoming fall. That addition will be nullified for the team to open discussions with the free-agent receiver, and it’s expected he’ll want something in the range that meets his experience.

The highest market value for an impending free-agent wide receiver is close to $14.7 million, according to Spotrac. The players positioned near that number have been vastly more available and productive than Shepard has over the past couple of seasons, making it hard to see the Giants dedicate that amount of money toward their veteran. They also have to decide on the futures of two other receivers from their 2022 roster and have dead cap money impacting them in 2023 from the trade of Kadarius Toney.

Thus with more, and in some cases bigger, deals yet to be handed out elsewhere, the Giants will be hard-pressed to push all of their wide receiver chips toward the middle of the table with Shepard. On that same token, it’s hard to imagine a world where the team doesn’t have a veteran within its corps, and Shepard doesn’t oblige on a lower contract to make it happen.

Keep or Dump?

From an injury perspective, one would likely suggest that the New York Giants move on from Sterling Shepard and seek out a new experienced pass catcher through the free-agent market before stocking up further through the draft.

However, it’s uncertain whether that will be a potential off-season strategy by the organization, to begin with. The Giants have several other off-season needs to contend with the wide receiver position, and it’s more likely those get filled through scouting the market for talent.

Meanwhile, the team could pursue another young route runner via the draft and maintain their unit featuring Shepard, Wan’Dale Robinson, Isaiah Hodgins, and the rest.

Perhaps their overall outlook could change if the Giants are successful at making some sort of transaction regarding Kenny Golladay. The beleaguered receiver could be made a post-June 1 cut which will lessen the impact of his cap weight and allow the front office to have more wiggle room in free-agent discussions.

Until we find out what befalls these factors, the future of Shepard is up in the air. If the Giants could get him back on a modest deal, then have at it, but the two lower body injuries might not make things so easy to finalize.

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