Giants Double-Digit Underdogs vs. Philadelphia

Bah humbug! No surprise here, but the Giants are underdogs against the Philadelphia Eagles.

The New York Giants' meager playoff hopes may be officially over, but the team still has three games left to play, and they don’t get any easier.

Last Sunday, the immense progress the Giants made in three weeks came crashing down on them in New Orleans. Quarterback Tommy DeVito was sacked seven times, the offense couldn’t get anything moving in either phase, and the Saints rallied behind their run game to a 24-6 win to stifle the DeVito craze and New York’s fantasies of sneaking into the postseason.

Falling to 5-9 with the mathematical odds about to toll the deathly bell, the Giants now have to look towards finishing the season strong while focusing on discovering which players have developmental futures with the franchise. They’ll have to travel to Philadelphia on Christmas Day to begin these evaluations, ones coming against a talented Eagles team in an often hostile environment.

According to FanDuel, the Giants will open Week 16’s holiday visit to Lincoln Financial Field as 10.5-point underdogs, the first double-digit margin for the team since Week 10 when they were 16.5-points underdogs to another NFC East foe in the Dallas Cowboys. The latter team covered that gaping margin in blowout fashion, 49-17, and the chance is there for the Eagles to match it against a Giants squad that’s struggled to steal a game on their turf since 2013.

Not only have the Eagles owned the Giant's number in recent seasons, but they will be welcoming New York, hungry for a dominating win after two humiliating losses. Philadelphia was blown out by the San Francisco 49ers and Dallas Cowboys in consecutive weeks by a combined score of 75-32, placing them and the Cowboys in a heated race for the division crown where the Eagles’ two contests with New York could be the deciding factor.

Led by offensive coordinator Brian Johnson, the Eagles boast the seventh-best scoring offense in the NFL, averaging 26.3 points per game. With quarterback Jalen Hurts at the starting helm, their offense is a serious dual-threat unit that can punish defenses in one of two ways, depending on how the opposition chooses to cover them.

Through the air, the Eagles are flanked with a handful of receiving weapons in players like AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert that can haul in Hurt’s throws at an alarming rate all over the field. The first two names have collected over 2,000 yards and 13 touchdowns in 13 games, and that duo has placed Philadelphia within the top half of the league in almost every passing category.

The ground attack has been even more difficult to slow down behind the combination of Hurts, D’Andre Swift, and Kenneth Gainwell, who account for 94% of the Eagles’ rushing output this season. Their efforts give the Birds a top-5 rushing attempts and touchdowns ranking to go along with 9th in yards and 14th in average rush and Hurts being the scoring factor with 12 goalline touchdowns to lead all Eagles players.

When Philadelphia’s unit is not pushed off the field quickly, it becomes nearly impossible to defeat them, let alone own the time of possession. They excel at converting third and fourth downs with tools like the “tush push,” they can be the best at overcoming the long field with their steady scheme that sits second in average time, plays per drive, and scores on 43% of those possessions.

To top it all off, they have a defense that can shut down one of the Giants most valuable assets in Saquon Barkley, and his impact on the ground. The Eagles have only allowed eight rushing touchdowns and less than 300 attempts from opposing backs this year, a stat coupled with their fifth-best opposing scoring percentage that forces teams to throw the ball to find the endzone.

While they can throw a pack of hungry rushers at the backfield with their fifth-ranked pass rush win rate of 49%, the Eagles have become vulnerable in the secondary due to injuries in recent weeks, leading to them getting exposed on explosive plays. It’s an issue that’s given up nearly 900 passing yards in the team’s last three games, dropped their rankings in that department, and could be a return wow if New York can take advantage of it.

What could allow this year’s Philadelphia Eagles team to overcome is their ability to produce at a deadly rate, which can run up the scoreboard early to make this game’s opening line viable. The Giants have made some strides to increase their production in their three wins behind DeVito, but there is still a large gap between them and their rival franchise’s level.

New York enters the matchup with the 31st-ranked offense in total points and yards accumulated, resulting largely from their bottom-barrel passing attack with similar rankings in attempts, yards, touchdowns, and average yards per play. The DeVito stint has helped them juice the numbers slightly, but they’re still lingering at the bottom of the league in almost every key stat of offensive success.

The Giants have relied heavily on their defense to set the tone, create turnovers, and place the offense into favorable positions to score and remain competitive with teams above their weight class. That is an area the Eagles have fallen victim to in their recent losses, and it was a big factor in why New Orleans ran away victorious in the second half last Sunday.

In the end, this Philadelphia team seems different than any beast DeVito and the Giants have faced since he took over in Week 11 and briefly resurrected the season from utter embarrassment. Everything will be harder with the strength of their entire operation, and the offense can’t right the ship from the loss in the Bayou and find ways to land some punches early and often.

The alternative is a holiday affair that could end up in the same fashion as the Giants’ first half of the year, and the curse at the Link could continue. 

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