Has Saquon Barkley Earned New Contract from Giants?

Let's look at the pros and cons and come to a conclusion.

Of all the off-season decisions New York Giants general manager Joe Schoen will need to make in a couple of months, one of the biggest involves what to do with running back Saquon Barkley.

Schoen reportedly had preliminary discussions with Barkley's representatives during the bye week, those talks not culminating in a deal--not that they were going to, given the state of the Giants' salary cap situation.

Let's look at the pros and cons of re-signing Barkley. 

Saquon Barkley of the Giants in the second half. The Houston Texans at the New York Giants in a game played at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ on November 13, 2022 :: Chris Pedota, NorthJersey.com / USA TODAY NETWORK

Saquon Barkley entered the NFL as the No. 2 overall pick in the 2018 draft as a player that now former general manager Dave Gettleman strongly believed had "gold jacket" (Hall of Fame) potential written all over him.

Based on his award-winning rookie year performance, Gettleman's thought process appeared to have some legs. Barkley finished with 2,028 scrimmage yards, including 1,307 on the ground and 11 touchdowns.

The 2018 Offensive Rookie of the Year winner's numbers topped those of Hall of Fame running back (and Barkley idol) Barry Sanders, who, in his first season, rushed for 1,470 yards and 14 touchdowns but posted just 282 receiving yards for a total of 1,752 all-purpose yards.

But then injuries struck Barkley. In his second season, he dealt with a high ankle sprain. In his third, he tore his ACL and missed most of the year. In his fourth season, Barkley, still rehabbing from reconstructive ACL surgery, also suffered a sprained ankle on a freak play.

Facing a make-or-break fifth season, a fully healthy Barkley benefitted from a more modernized offensive system that made a greater effort to get him into space. But it's been a tale of two halves for Barkley this season.

In the first eight games of the year, Barkley rushed for 779 yards on 163 carries (4.78 yards/carry) and five touchdowns. As a receiver, he added 28 receptions (on 35 pass targets) for 189 yards. And he had three 100-yard rushing performances in Week 1 against the Titans (164 yards), Week 4 against the Bears (146 yards), and Week 7 against Jacksonville (110 yards)

Those numbers have dropped in the second half of the season. Other than for a 152-yard rushing performance on 35 carries against the Houston Texans in Week 9 (the Texans having the league's worst run defense at the time), Barkley has averaged 38 rushing yards per game from Weeks 10-13.

His full numbers for the second half (Weeks 9-13) of the season so far? Three hundred four (304) yards on 88 carries (3.45 yards/carry), three touchdowns, and 14 receptions on 19 carries for 72 yards.

With such a drop-off in production, there are growing cries among the fan base for the Giants to pass on devoting significant financial resources to Barkley and use the money elsewhere.

What's Gone Wrong?

Several things have resulted in Barkley's slowing down in the second half of the season, the biggest of which is overdependence due to the lack of weapons elsewhere on the roster.

Right from the start, Barkley has been the Giants most consistent and reliable "weapon" on offense this year. He's also their only one, having had to shoulder more of the load when Kenny Golladay fizzled out, Kadarius Toney and the Giants divorced, and when Sterling Shepard tore his ACL earlier in the year.

The truth is that Barkley was the only offensive player that scared opponents. And once they figured out how to stop him, to cut off the head of the Giants' offense, that was all she wrote.

The situation is similar to a few years ago when a receiver named Odell Beckham Jr was the Giants offense. Once opponents figured out how to stop him, the Giants' offensive production sank faster than a lead-filled balloon.

When one guy is your offense, tailoring things around the opponent becomes a bit more challenging. That's why you see teams like the Chiefs, Bills, and Eagles able to roll over opponents--they have many weapons at their disposal.

But in getting back to Barkley, the injuries on the offensive line and tight end didn't help. The Giants, per Football Outsiders, have the 26th-ranked offensive line in adjusted line yards (4.07) and the 24th-ranked (1.11) offensive line in second-level yardage.

As good as Barkley is, he needs blocking up front, and it's probably fair to say that in the second half of the season, that blocking hasn't always been there for him, particularly along the interior.

Per Sports Radar, Barkley has gained most of his yardage so far in hitting the sixth (outside of the right tackle), eighth (right edge), seventh (left edge), and fourth (right guard-right tackle gaps). (Note: See this article for more on hole numbering systems.)

On the other hand, rushing attempts between the center/right guard (second hole), left tackle-left guard (third hole), and center-left guard (first hole) have yielded the fewest rushing yards. (The left guard spot having the biggest changeover this season, given the injuries to Shane Lemieux, Joshua Ezeudu, and Ben Bredeson that have disrupted chemistry.)

In the passing game, Barkley, again per Sports Radar, has caught most of his pass targets in the flat, followed by underneath screens. And speaking of screens, given the Giants struggles with blocking (not to mention six ineligible downfield penalties called against New York this year, four of which were accepted), and the argument about the offensive line's chemistry being wrecked by injuries, gains strength.

New York Giants running back Saquon Barkley (26) reacts as the offense leaves the field in the second half at MetLife Stadium. The Giants fall to the Cowboys, 21-6, on Sunday, Dec. 19, 2021, in East Rutherford :: Danielle Parhizkaran/NorthJersey.com / USA TODAY NETWORK

What's Gone Right?

When this offense works as it should, Barkley is a key piece capable of taking over a game by himself. One might argue that this offensive system is a much better fit for what he does well, which is to operate in space as a receiver on screens and run plays to the outside, where he has the speed and quickness to turn the corner and get upfield.

Barkley has also thus far been able to kick the injury bug, which cost him 21 missed games over his career. While he is currently dealing with a shoulder/neck ailment that last week limited him to 20 snaps, he was still healthy enough to play, even though his contributions were limited.

Barkley has shown he's a good enough player who can move the chains when called upon. No, he's not necessarily the type who can do it by himself--he needs blockers in front of him--but he's been efficient enough in that regard.

Barkley is currently sixth in the league in 10+ yards (26) runs and is one of five running backs to have already surpassed 1,000 yards rushing on the season.

Final Thoughts

Barkley's contract--and I do believe he'll get a new deal from the Giants--probably won't be easy to get done, at least by the start of free agency. The Giants will almost certainly have to use the frnachise tag on Barkley to keep other suitors away while the two sides hammer out the deal.

Given his bounceback season and his versatility, it wouldn't be a stretch to anticipate Barkley looking to become the highest-paid at his position.

The problem is that the highest paid, San Francisco's Christian McCaffrey, averages $16 million per year, much higher than the projected $12.632 franchise tender for running backs in 2023.

That said, an important number to look at is the guaranteed money. McCaffrey has approximately 46.9 percent of his four-year, $64 million contract that he signed while still with the Panthers fully guaranteed.

If the Giants can top that percentage--and it's possible through signing bonuses, guaranteed salaries (full or partial), and roster bonuses--it wouldn't be too far-fetched to see Barkley come in at a lower APY.

The other thing the Giants can do for Barkley is to include incentives, such as for winning the league rushing title, into the deal to help boost the full value of the deal. And it's almost certain that the Giants will include a voidable year to help with lessening the signing bonus's hit on each cap year the contract is in effect.

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