How Giants Could Meet Saquon Barkley in the Middle on New Contract

The Giants would like Saquon Barkley back, but the deal needs to work for both sides. Here are some ideas how to make that happen.

Saquon Barkley wants to be a Giant for life. The Giants want Saquon Barkley around, preferably for life as well.

That the two sides want each other is the easy part. The hard part is how they're going to make that happen.

Barkley, who told reporters during the team's "baggy day" media sessions that he is realistic about his potential future earnings to the point where he's not looking to reset the market price for running backs, reportedly turned down a bye-week offer that would have paid him an APY (average per year) of $12 million. That amount would have put him in the same neighborhood as Joe Mixon, Derrick Henry, Aaron Jones, Nick Chubb, and Dalvin Cook.

A report by FOX Sports Ralph Vacchiano claims that Barkley is looking to be paid on par with 49ers running back Christian McCaffery, who leads the league's running backs with a $16 million APY.

What isn't clear, though, is the structure of the desired APYs being offered and sought. An APY can be inflated with incentives, of which there are two types: "likely to be earned" (LTBE) and "not likely to be earned" (NLTBE).

An LTBE incentive is a performance-based benchmark that the player was able to earn the previous season. In the case of Barkley, he had ten rushing touchdowns in 2022, so if the Giants put an incentive into his new deal stating he'll earn bonus money if he records ten rushing touchdowns in 2023, that would count toward his 2023 cap figure. And if he fails to reach ten rushing touchdowns in 2023, the allocated bonus money is credited to the Giants' cap in 2024.

An NTLBE incentive is a performance incentive not reached in the previous year's performance. For example, Barkley rushing for 15 touchdowns would be considered an NTLBE incentive since he did not reach that benchmark the year prior. NLTBE incentives do not count against the current year's cap regardless; however, if they are reached, the money is deducted from the following year's cap figure.

The best and most likely course of action for the Giants and Barkley to agree on a new deal (besides being reasonable) could lie in the incentives that can push his total annual earnings upward.

But first, let's talk about a base APY. As previously noted, Mixon, Henry, Jones, Chubb, and Cook all have deals with a 2023 APY in the $12-$12.5 million range. Those players inked their respective deals in either 2020 or 2021; hence it's not surprising if Barkley's camp is seeking an APY beyond those ranges.

If the report about Barkley seeking to be paid on par as McCaffrey with regards to APY, it sounds like his representative might be looking for a 30 percent increase of the $12.5 million APY Henry is due to earn.

A 30 percent increase on a $12.5 million APY would be $3.75 million, bringing the total to about $16.25 million--or McCaffrey money--which the Giants don't seem interested in matching.

So what's the answer? There is always the franchise tag, which Barkley understandably didn't seem too keen on getting given that it would pay him an estimated (but guaranteed) $10.1 million, which is slightly less than his 2021 cap number and which he earned in 2021.

The likely solution for the Giants and Barkley is a three-year deal with a base APY of $13 million and incentives that he should be fairly easy to reach that could push the deal upward in value.

Here are a few suggestions.

Rushing Yardage Leader Incentive

Henry of the Titans is a two-time NFL rushing yardage leader. Chubb of the Browns has finished in the top 5 among rushing leaders in the last two years.

Barkley? This year he finished fourth in rushing, cracking into the top five in yardage leaders for the first time since his rookie campaign in 2018 when he finished second behind Zeke Elliott of the Cowboys.

If you're the Giants, a structured incentive might be an option. For example, Barkley gets $500,000 if he cracks into the top five in rushing yardage, which will double to $1 million if he finishes as the league's rushing yardage leader.

Rushing Touchdown Goal Incentive

Barkley has 29 career rushing touchdowns, including 11 in his rookie campaign and ten last year. Thus the Giants have another potential LTBE incentive to use, one in which, again, they could pay out $500,000 if Barkley records ten rushing touchdowns.

With the Giants expected to upgrade their receiver corps, plus with quarterback Daniel Jones capable of running the ball, it's fair to wonder how much heavy lifting Barkley will have to continue doing moving forward.

In 2018, Barkley was on the field 852 times, touching the ball as a rusher on 30.6 percent of his carries. In 2022, he was on the field 856 times, touching the ball as a runner on 34.4 percent of his carries.

If Barkley maintains these numbers, there is no reason to think that achieving ten rushing touchdowns can't be reached. But if he should fall short of the goal, the Giants would receive a cap credit.

New York Giants running back Saquon Barkley (26) on the field for warmups before a preseason game at MetLife Stadium on August 21, 2022, in East Rutherford :: Danielle Parhizkaran/NorthJersey.com / USA TODAY NETWORK

Per Game Roster Bonuses

For the first time since 2018, Barkley did not miss a game due to injury (he was inactive in Week 18 this year when head coach Brian Daboll decided to rest most of the starters in a meaningless game).

In this case, given the wear and tear, he's had over his career--he's carried the ball as a runner in 31.6 percent of the offensive snaps in which he's played--it might behoove the Giants to have a per-game roster bonus for every week Barkley is active.

Let's use $500,000 as an example. Spread over a 17-game season, which comes to $29,411 per week, an amount that adds up and is a great way to help boost the overall APY in Barkley's deal. If he misses a game due to injury--as his career history suggests could likely be the case--the Giants get a cap credit.

Workout Bonus

Last year after Schoen was hired, I wrote an article about the different approaches the Bills and Giants used in their salary cap construction which I recommend you re-read since I fully expect a lot of those tactics to be incorporated in future Giants contracts.

An inflated workout bonus is one such method I fully expect the Giants to use in a potential new deal for Barkley. A player earns a workout bonus when he shows up for an established set percentage of the team's off-season workout dates (typically around 90 percent). Higher workout bonuses can help offset the inflated signing bonus money (and dead money if a player is later cut).

It's also easy money for the player to collect and poses little risk to the player since all he has to do to collect is show up.

For a player of Barkley's caliber, a $250,000 annual workout bonus probably wouldn't be unrealistic to help push the annual APY forward.

Guaranteed-at-Signing Roster Bonus

For any player, a contract is all about guaranteed money. There are two types of guaranteed money, though: fully guaranteed at signing and guaranteed if the player is on the roster.

For example, Kenny Golladay's $4.5 million roster bonus due this year was fully guaranteed, meaning regardless of what the Giants do with him, he's going to collect that money. If that clause doesn't exist, the Giants could save by cutting Golladay before the bonus is due.

The Giants could deploy a similar tactic with Barkley if they stick to a shorter-term contract. For example, offer him fully guaranteed roster bonuses in Years 1 and 2 of the contract, which would push his earnings upward for that year when combined with the prorated signing bonus, P5 salary, and workout bonus.

The benefit to this approach is if the Giants decide to cut Barkley after the second year, they won't have to absorb an outrageous dead money hit, as would be the case if they just paid out an excessive signing bonus.

Postseason Honors

The CBA recognizes several postseason honors for which a player can receive an NLTBE bonus if he achieves it. Again, this means that unless the player achieved the honor the prior season, any such bonus would not count toward the current cap year; rather, it will be deducted from the new league year's cap.

Among the postseason honors, a player is eligible for include Pro Bowl, All-NFL (first and second Team), All-Conference (First and Second Team), NFL MVP Offensive Player of the Year, and placement on various recognized media lists such as Associated Press, Pro Football Writers of America, Sporting News and Sports Illustrated. (See Page 118 of the CBA for the complete list.)

In Barkley's case, a Pro Bowl incentive, which he earned in 2022, would certainly be within reach if he builds on his 2022 season.

Final Thoughts

The Giants probably won't be looking to sign Barkley for more than three or four years at most, which makes sense, given his injury history and age. Look for most of the Giants' contracts moving forward to have an easy escape hatch just in case something goes astray.

As far as a base APY is concerned, $13 million per year isn't unreasonable if we again consider that those running backs in the $12 million range signed their respective deals one to two years ago. 

If Barkley is as confident about himself moving forward as he was before the start of this year, agreeing to added incentives that could potentially push the APY upward shouldn't be that big of a deal if he is looking to be paid around the same as McCaffrey.

One last point. We have seen people express concerns about the salary cap and what paying Barkley and quarterback Daniel Jones would do to the Giants cap. This shouldn't be as big of a worry.

For one, the first year in most new contracts is always low, considering the player receives a chunk of the contract in the form of a signing bonus without even playing a down. This allows the team to justify giving him a lower P5 salary in the first year.

Second, the new money from the Amazon deal is set to hit in 2024, when Barkley and Jones will enter the second year of their respective deals. Over the Cap projects, the 2024 cap to be $256 million, an estimated $31 million increase from this year's projected $225 million mark.

So long as the Giants aren't giving out foolish contracts such as what Kenny Golladay received or constantly restructuring deals to push money down the road, there should be more than enough for the team to operate with.

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